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Will the GOP convention be delayed due to Gustav?

Settled as No

Convention started on time. No nights were cancelled.

Background:



Planners of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul held emergency conversations Wednesday about what to do if a tropical storm continues on its track as a potential Category 3 hurricane threatening New Orleans.

Gustav’s projected path suggests possible landfall on the convention’s opening day — Labor Day.

The storm could threaten everything from President Bush’s Monday night address to the broader Republican message of effective government management.

Local officials fear a Katrina II — a rerun of the storm that ravished New Orleans and badly damaged Bush’s image. Aides said Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu planned to leave the Democratic National Convention in Denver and head back home.

The liberal group Progressive Accountability planned to try to embarrass Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on Friday for his response to the Katrina strike, claiming his was the 40th senator to visit New Orleans afterwards.

“We will be making sure everyone knows it is not just Bush who has a Katrina problem,” said the group’s Eddie Vale. “McCain was eating birthday cake with Bush after the levees broke. And then he voted against oversight, against medicaid for victims, and against unemployment benefits for victims.”

Government forecasters said the target area runs from south Texas to the Florida Panhandle — including the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts devastated by Katrina.

The president, Laura Bush and Vice President Cheney are all scheduled to speak Monday on the convention’s opening day.

Friday is the third anniversary of Katrina’s landfall. The sloppy government response still haunts the Bush administration, raising questions about whether the president would address a political gathering if the Southeast coast was being battered by another monster storm.

The president is scheduled to fly into St. Paul on Monday, speak at the Xcel Energy Center at 9:40 p.m. Central time, then fly home to spend the night at Camp David.

Spokespeople for the organizations involved in convention planning said they were not ready to comment.

Market will settle as a Yes, if any night of the Convention is either cancelled or rescheduled.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
58%
No
42%
Activity: H$59,437
Settled as No on Thu 4th Sep 9:11pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 9:11pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%, No: 85%

Action history:

Created Wed 27th Aug 7:51pm PDT by destry[Admin]
Clarified Sat 30th Aug 4:49pm PDT by destry[Admin]: If Convention is cancelled, that would settle as a YES for delayed.
Suspended Sun 31st Aug 11:48am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: GOP calls off first night of convention

The entire Republican National Convention's Monday night program, including an address by President Bush, will be canceled as national attention focuses on Hurricane Gustav, House Minority Leader John Boehner said today.

2:26 PM EDT
Settlement requested Sun 31st Aug 4:32pm PDT by davidpepe: If they are canceling the first night of the convention, doesn't that equal a delay? And therefore, doesn't that answer the question?
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 1st Sep 5:31pm PDT by rbrog77: It was not called off or cancelled. They did about 2 hours of business today.
Unsuspended Tue 2nd Sep 5pm PDT by destry[Admin]
Suspended Tue 2nd Sep 5:01pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Market suspended until Convention is over.
Settled as 'No' Thu 4th Sep 9:11pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Convention started on time. No nights were cancelled.

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 9:11pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (124)

124 predictions

11 weeks ago
tkohler predicted No (H$100 at 41%)
11 weeks ago
monnggee predicted No (H$100 at 40%)
11 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 47%)
11 weeks ago
joaoxxx predicted No (H$20 at 58%)
11 weeks ago
shaidorsai predicted No (H$20 at 58%)
more

Comments (37)

This convention reminds me of the best convention in memory http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmmgVFByeaI
My opinion, of course! :-)
posted 12 weeks ago
"McCain: I may postpone convention"

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/13007.html
posted 12 weeks ago
There's apparently some rumors of effectively canceling the convention and replacing it with a service volunteering program to help hurricane victims. What would the final verdict be in this circumstance?

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08302008/news/nationalnews/gops_rnc_cane_plan_126772.htm
posted 12 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
If the convention is cancelled, that would definitely settle as a YES for being delayed.
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 jackpot11
I bet they are tickled pink to find an excuse not to have Bush and Cheney show up.
posted 11 weeks ago
  7 djc2008
what if they just abridge the convention. Like cancel monday night and make it a 2-day convention rather than a 4-day??
posted 11 weeks ago
McCain, GOP weigh shorter convention due to storm

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080831/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_convention_rdp;_ylt=AmIgTKhtGz6QzZlvDVNp_sys0NUE
posted 11 weeks ago
  9 bayoubear[Admin]
Even if the opening of the convention is only delayed a few hours (until after landfall) this should settle as a yes....Anybody got any idea when it is supposed to be officially opened?
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 cognos[Power User]
I'd hate to be seen 'partying' on the RNC "National Stage", while Gustav destroys the lives of so many.
posted 11 weeks ago
  11 davidpepe
if they are cancweling the first night, doesn;t that mean they are delaying the convention? Shouldn't that mean the question is answered?
posted 11 weeks ago
  12 djc2008
I believe they are still going through motions, which means it is still going on. Just toned down; which is not what the question said.
posted 11 weeks ago
  13 curios
at as reported and agreeing with djc2008
ST. PAUL, Minn. - John McCain tore up the script for his Republican National Convention on Sunday, casting himself as above politics as Hurricane Gustav churned toward New Orleans. "We will act as Americans," not partisans, he declared.

President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney scrapped plans to address the convention Monday night, and McCain's aides chartered a jet to fly delegates back to their hurricane-threatened states along the Gulf Coast. Campaign manager Rick Davis said the first-night program was being cut from seven hours to two-and-a-half
so must be settled as yes
posted 11 weeks ago
  14 curios
oops settled as yes sorry djc2006 and all typo mistake must be settled as yes
posted 11 weeks ago
  15 curios
done it again settled as no sorry all
posted 11 weeks ago
  16 rbrog77
As the question is "Will the GOP convention be delayed due to Gustav?" it seems the answer and settlement should be No. They toned or pared down the first day's activities to about 2 hours worth. That's not a delay.
posted 11 weeks ago
  17 destry[Admin]
This market will remain suspended until Thursday. As of now the convention is on, just not as elaborate as before.
posted 11 weeks ago
  18 curios
as the first day was shortened it did open which is the crux of the question and should be settled as no

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/2663345/Republican-Convention-St-Paul-Diary-Day-One.html
posted 11 weeks ago
  19 destry[Admin]
The GOP could still decide to delay or cancel a day. Unlikely but not going to settle until convention is over.
posted 11 weeks ago
  20 kennyk
They did some business on Monday, but it can't be settled until it is over or they postpone or cancel it. Right now it seems that while it is abbreviated, it is not delayed ---- but the question refers to the entire convention, not just the first day. They could still delay or even cancel part of the convention.
posted 11 weeks ago
  21 curios
@destry your reasoning is padantic here asnswers two questions in one

p://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D92U6LE01&show_article=1
posted 11 weeks ago
  22 curios
if they where to delay or suspended a day it will show the party in disarray
posted 11 weeks ago
  23 destry[Admin]
Would it also be pedantic for me to point out that you misspelled the big word you attempted to use.
posted 11 weeks ago
  24 curios
in English it is spelt as above don't play with me u know you are wrong i wonder why the spell checker never picked it up
posted 11 weeks ago
  25 curios
what in your fanatic wisdom does it mean
posted 11 weeks ago
  26 curios
@destry come in spinner ,,,,,,,,,,, if you knew what pedantic meant you may feel correctly insulted ,,,,,,,,ask a Australian what come in spinner means
posted 11 weeks ago
  27 destry[Admin]
So now you are using references from a game called two-up. I feel like a mix between a boxer and a ringy.
posted 11 weeks ago
  28 curios
not at all spinner also means you have mean caught out pedantic
adjective 1. hairsplitting, particular, formal, precise, fussy, picky (informal) nit-picking (informal) punctilious, priggish, pedagogic, overnice
adjective 2. academic, pompous, schoolmasterly, stilted, erudite, scholastic, didactic, bookish, abstruse, donnish, sententious
posted 11 weeks ago
  29 davidpepe
I don't know guys! Two of the major speakers set for the first night are now speaking on different nights...doesn't that make their speeches "delayed," hence making it a delayed start? And anyway, isn't it the RNC convention, not the GOP convention?
posted 11 weeks ago
  30 bayoubear[Admin]
David, good point on the RNC versus GOP, but in order to settle the question, IMHO, did the convention convene on time Monday afternoon....even if they canceled some speakers (we could do without Bush and Cheney), if they began it on time, and had any events, which I know I saw Cindy and Laura, then it should be settled as NO. If they delayed the opening then it should be a YES. It really doesn't matter what they do the remainder of the week. The delay, if any, occurred yesterday!
posted 11 weeks ago
  31 spyder
As far as I'm concerned, "delayed" refers ONLY to whether it started at the planned time or not. NOT whether day 1 was shortened, or if things end early. "Delay" refers only to the start time and does Start Time=Planned Start Time... End of discussion.
posted 11 weeks ago
  32 curios
We really are missing the point the it was shortened and not delayed it did in affect start as below shows
Good news! First Lady Laura Bush and McCain's wife Cindy closed the truncated program with an appeal for donations to aid storm victims on the Gulf Coast. "This is a time when we take off our Republican hats and put on our American hats," Cindy McCain said to a burst of applause.

Tuesday the convention should begin to get back to normal. As this tumultuous election year rolls on, voters can decide for themselves what sort of news that is.
and should be either settled as no or made void
posted 11 weeks ago
  33 robbuerkle
Plain and simple. The question states - "Will the GOP convention be delayed due to Gustav?."

Did it start on time? No.

Therefore, it was DELAYED.

Settle as Yes.
posted 11 weeks ago
@ robbuerkle -- "Did it start on time? No."

Do you have a link to a news article that states (shows) that? If so, that might put part of this debate to rest.
posted 11 weeks ago
@ htlsales -- to my read, the link you provided only refers to "politics" returning to the convention ... as they only conducted "required (boring) convention business" during the first day -- no "political speeches".

FYI, I predicted "yes" on this question ... but without link(s) to something, for example, that shows the time the convention was supposed to start, along with the time it did start, I'm not optimistic that this will settle as "yes".
posted 11 weeks ago
  37 destry[Admin]
According to this link the convention opened on time, I cut and paste the portion from that link that says that. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080901/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_daughter
The convention opened on time, though shortened out of concern that the party did not want to be seen whooping it up in St. Paul while thousands of Americans along the Gulf Coast were being threatened by the hurricane. From the convention podium, GOP officials asked delegates to take out their cell phones and text-message contributions to help in the relief effort.
I am just making sure nothing else occurs that could delay or cancel the RNC between now and when it is over tomorrow evening. As of now if nothing else was to occur to delay or cancel, this market would settle as NO.
posted 11 weeks ago

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