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Which teams will advance from UEFA Champions League Group A?

Current forecast: Chelsea & Roma (61% chance3%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Chelsea & Roma with a probability of 61% (down 3% in last 1 day)

Group A : Chelsea FC (ENG), AS Roma (ITA), Bordeaux (FRA), 1907 Cluj (ROU)

Group's home page at UEFA's site:
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/standings/round=15276/group=701404.html

After every team plays each other home and away, top 2 advances to the 2nd round. Which teams will they be?

Initial likelihoods are based on the UEFA coefficients of the teams:
http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2008.html

Roughly : (Team 1 coef. + Team 2 coef) / 3*(Total of all team coefficients)
Since the lowest seeded teams rarely advance, I moved several percantage points from those outcomes to the other outcomes.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Chelsea & Roma
61%
Chelsea & Bordeaux
32%
Roma & Bordeaux
2%
Chelsea & Cluj
4%
Roma & Cluj
1%
Bordeaux & Cluj
0%
Activity: H$22,747
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 9th Dec 9:59am PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Chelsea & Roma : 29%, Chelsea & Bordeaux: 25%, Roma & Bordeaux: 20%, Chelsea & Cluj: 13%, Roma & Cluj: 8%, Bordeaux & Cluj: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 1:54pm PDT by pembeci

Suspend date: Tue 9th Dec 9:59am PST (2 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (38)

38 predictions

1 week ago
jamest predicted Chelsea & Bordeaux (H$400 at 29%)
1 week ago
tun3r84 predicted Chelsea & Roma (H$488 at 69%)
2 weeks ago
kingyosullivan predicted Chelsea & Roma (H$100 at 62%)
2 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted Chelsea & Bordeaux (H$1,000 at 21%)
2 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Chelsea & Roma (H$3,000 at 54%)
more

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