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Which teams will advance from UEFA Champions League Group D?

Current forecast: Liverpool & Atletico (95% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Liverpool & Atletico with a probability of 95% (down 1% in last 1 day)

Group D : Liverpool FC (ENG), PSV Eindhoven (NED), Olympique de Marseille (FRA), Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP)

Group's home page at UEFA's site:
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/standings/round=15276/group=701407.html

After every team plays each other home and away, top 2 advances to the 2nd round. Which teams will they be?

Initial likelihoods are based on the UEFA coefficients of the teams:
http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2008.html

Roughly : (Team 1 coef. + Team 2 coef) / 3*(Total of all team coefficients)
Since the lowest seeded teams rarely advance, I moved several percantage points from those outcomes to the other outcomes.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Liverpool & PSV
3%
Liverpool & Marseille
1%
PSV & Marseille
0%
Liverpool & Atletico
95%
PSV & Atletico
0%
Marseille & Atletico
0%
Activity: H$26,417
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 9th Dec 1:59am PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Liverpool & PSV: 24%, Liverpool & Marseille: 21%, PSV & Marseille: 18%, Liverpool & Atletico: 16%, PSV & Atletico: 12%, Marseille & Atletico: 9%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 2:38pm PDT by pembeci

Suspend date: Tue 9th Dec 1:59am PST (2 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (25)

25 predictions

1 week ago
jamest predicted Liverpool & Atletico (H$1,000 at 96%)
1 week ago
cakeordeath predicted Liverpool & Atletico (H$50 at 96%)
2 weeks ago
esop predicted Liverpool & Atletico (H$100 at 97%)
2 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Liverpool & Atletico (H$10,000 at 91%)
6 weeks ago
maygaess predicted Liverpool & Atletico (H$100 at 82%)
more

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