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Which teams will advance from UEFA Champions League Group E?

Current forecast: Manchester United & Villareal (95% chance2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Manchester United & Villareal with a probability of 95% (down 2% in last 1 day)

Group E : Manchester United FC (ENG, holders), Villarreal CF (ESP)
Celtic FC (SCO), Aalborg BK (DEN)

Group's home page at UEFA's site:
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/standings/round=15276/group=701408.html

After every team plays each other home and away, top 2 advances to the 2nd round. Which teams will they be?

Initial likelihoods are based on the UEFA coefficients of the teams:
http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2008.html

Roughly : (Team 1 coef. + Team 2 coef) / 3*(Total of all team coefficients)
Since the lowest seeded teams rarely advance, I moved several percantage points from those outcomes to the other outcomes.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Manchester United & Villareal
95%
Manchester United & Celtic
3%
Villareal & Celtic
1%
Manchester United & Aalborg
0%
Villareal & Aalborg
0%
Celtic & Aalborg
0%
Activity: H$27,711
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 9th Dec 6:59am PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Manchester United & Villareal: 29%, Manchester United & Celtic: 23%, Villareal & Celtic: 21%, Manchester United & Aalborg: 12%, Villareal & Aalborg: 10%, Celtic & Aalborg: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 2:44pm PDT by pembeci

Suspend date: Tue 9th Dec 6:59am PST (2 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (29)

29 predictions

5 days ago
sarthak predicted Manchester United & Villareal (H$100 at 95%)
1 week ago
jamest predicted Manchester United & Villareal (H$2,000 at 94%)
1 week ago
lewisdick2 predicted Villareal & Celtic (H$20 at 1%)
1 week ago
lewisdick2 predicted Manchester United & Celtic (H$20 at 5%)
1 week ago
jamest predicted Manchester United & Villareal (H$2,000 at 92%)
more

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