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What will be the highest strength of tropical cyclone Hanna?

Settled as Category 1 Hurricane

Hanna's highest strength was a Cat. 1 storm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al08/al082008.public.042.shtml?

Background:

While Gustav is threatening to become a major hurricane, Hanna is out in the Atlantic and potentially threatening the Bahamas and the east cost. What will be the highest strength she achieves?


Settlement details: As reported by the NHC at http://www.noaawatch.gov/2008/hanna.php

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Tropical Storm
0%
Category 1 Hurricane
97%
Category 2 Hurricane
1%
Category 3 Hurricane
1%
Category 4 Hurricane
0%
Category 5 Hurricane
0%
Activity: H$89,931
Settled as Category 1 Hurricane on Fri 12th Sep 7:12am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 12th Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 12th Sep 7:12am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 12th Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Tropical Storm: 12%, Category 1 Hurricane: 49%, Category 2 Hurricane: 27%, Category 3 Hurricane: 9%, Category 4 Hurricane: 2%, Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 2:50pm PDT by pixelpaws
Clarified Sun 7th Sep 3:38am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: To end any confusion I want to make it clear that if Hanna does not reform in the Atlantic once it goes offshore, the market will be settled as Hanna's highest strength being a category 1. This is due to the fact that while at see Hanna reached Cat. 1 status (although it was later downgraded).

Regards,
Ryan
Settlement requested Sun 7th Sep 1:40pm PDT by tarpash: The NHC issued its last advisory on Hanna this morning:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al08/al082008.public.042.shtml?

Hanna has lost all tropical storm characteristics and no change in strength is forecasted.

This market should be settled at "Category One Hurricane."
Settlement requested Thu 11th Sep 3:47pm PDT by tarpash: No new information on Hanna. Ready to settle yet?
Suspended Fri 12th Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Category 1 Hurricane' Fri 12th Sep 7:13am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Hanna's highest strength was a Cat. 1 storm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al08/al082008.public.042.shtml?

Suspend date: Fri 12th Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 12th Sep 7:12am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 12th Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (144)

144 predictions

10 weeks ago
piterwilson predicted Category 1 Hurricane (H$1,100 at 97%)
10 weeks ago
kilroyfirelizard predicted Category 1 Hurricane (H$100 at 97%)
10 weeks ago
donnalip predicted Category 1 Hurricane (H$50 at 97%)
10 weeks ago
lourencoa predicted Category 3 Hurricane (H$20 at 1%)
10 weeks ago
curios predicted Category 1 Hurricane (H$1,900 at 96%)
more

Comments (19)

  1 cognos[Power User]
Now the forecasters are saying 'may become a hurricane'.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080901/NEWS07/80901032
posted 11 weeks ago
  2 tarpash
You guys continuing to bet on the "tropical storm" option know that Hanna was already a Cat 1 hurricane earlier this week, right?

Look at the history on the NHC website, or here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al08/al082008.discus.019.shtml?.
posted 11 weeks ago
  3 curios
@tarpash what you have there is only a discussion paper here is the fact

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031309.shtml?3day#contents
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 curios
more on storms/ hurricanes
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=29&ContentID=96352 written on the 5th
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 tarpash
@curios here is fact:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al08/al082008.public.019.shtml?

This NHC advisory says: "HANNA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE."
posted 11 weeks ago
  7 tarpash
That past advisory was posted on Monday, Sep 1st.
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 destry[Admin]
You can go to this link to see a detailed list of information on Hanna. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200808.asp#a_topad
The strongest this storm has been to date is Category 1.
posted 11 weeks ago
  9 curios
the question is very clear on settlement as http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ play the game please
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 curios
@destry your link showes it as only a tropical storm
posted 11 weeks ago
  11 curios
@destry on your graph it only shows it as a depression/tropical storm at most and at no time a hurricane
apart from that as as stated before what it is to be settled by noaawatch
posted 11 weeks ago
  12 tarpash
@curios Look at the yellow on destry's graph. It indicates when Hanna was a hurricane.
posted 10 weeks ago
  13 destry[Admin]
Here is link to NOAA statement showing Hanna as a Hurricane Category 1.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al08/al082008.public.020.shtml?
posted 10 weeks ago
  14 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

To end any confusion I want to make it clear that if Hanna does not reform in the Atlantic once it goes offshore, the market will be settled as Hanna's highest strength being a category 1. This is due to the fact that while at see Hanna reached Cat. 1 status (although it was later downgraded).

Regards,
Ryan
posted 10 weeks ago
  15 curios
sorry ryanj the question is to be settled by
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and nowhere do they mention anything but a tropical storm
posted 10 weeks ago
  17 curios
oops further
posted 10 weeks ago
  18 destry[Admin]
I posted a link to nhc.noaa.gov that showed hanna was a hurricane. Not sure what you are having a problem with here.
posted 10 weeks ago
  19 sqlman
Why's this one still not settled? Hanna briefly made it to category 1 hurricane status on 09/01: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al08/al082008.discus.019.shtml?
posted 10 weeks ago

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