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Which teams will advance from UEFA Champions League Group F?

Current forecast: Lyon & Bayern Munich (91% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Lyon & Bayern Munich with a probability of 91% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Group F : Olympique Lyonnais (FRA), FC Bayern München (GER), FC Steaua Bucureşti (ROU), ACF Fiorentina (ITA)

Group's home page at UEFA's site:
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/standings/round=15276/group=701409.html

After every team plays each other home and away, top 2 advances to the 2nd round. Which teams will they be?

Initial likelihoods are based on the UEFA coefficients of the teams:
http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2008.html

Roughly : (Team 1 coef. + Team 2 coef) / 3*(Total of all team coefficients)
Since the lowest seeded teams rarely advance, I moved several percantage points from those outcomes to the other outcomes.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Lyon & Bayern Munich
91%
Lyon & Steaua
0%
Bayern Munich & Steaua
0%
Lyon & Fiorentina
0%
Bayern Munich & Fiorentina
8%
Steaua & Fiorentina
0%
Activity: H$24,941
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 8th Dec 10:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Lyon & Bayern Munich: 24%, Lyon & Steaua: 20%, Bayern Munich & Steaua: 18%, Lyon & Fiorentina: 15%, Bayern Munich & Fiorentina: 14%, Steaua & Fiorentina: 9%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 2:52pm PDT by pembeci

Suspend date: Mon 8th Dec 10:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)
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Predictions (39)

39 predictions

1 week ago
lewisdick2 predicted Lyon & Bayern Munich (H$20 at 91%)
1 week ago
jamest predicted Lyon & Bayern Munich (H$1,000 at 90%)
1 week ago
tun3r84 predicted Lyon & Bayern Munich (H$888 at 91%)
2 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Lyon & Bayern Munich (H$5,000 at 83%)
4 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Lyon & Bayern Munich (H$1,000 at 72%)
more

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