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Which teams will advance from UEFA Champions League Group H?

Current forecast: Real Madrid & Juventus (83% chance12%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Real Madrid & Juventus with a probability of 83% (down 12% in last 1 day)

Group H : Real Madrid CF (ESP), Juventus (ITA), FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS), FC BATE Borisov (BLR)

Group's home page at UEFA's site:
http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/standings/round=15276/group=701411.html

After every team plays each other home and away, top 2 advances to the 2nd round. Which teams will they be?

Initial likelihoods are based on the UEFA coefficients of the teams:
http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/seedcl2008.html

Roughly : (Team 1 coef. + Team 2 coef) / 3*(Total of all team coefficients)
Since the lowest seeded teams rarely advance, I moved several percantage points from those outcomes to the other outcomes.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Real Madrid & Juventus
83%
Real Madrid & Zenit
9%
Juventus & Zenit
8%
Real Madrid & BATE
0%
Juventus & BATE
0%
Zenit & BATE
0%
Activity: H$21,342
Question suspends in 2 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 8th Dec 10:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Real Madrid & Juventus: 29%, Real Madrid & Zenit: 27%, Juventus & Zenit: 23%, Real Madrid & BATE: 10%, Juventus & BATE: 6%, Zenit & BATE: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 3:08pm PDT by pembeci

Suspend date: Mon 8th Dec 10:59pm PST (2 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (31)

31 predictions

1 week ago
tun3r84 predicted Real Madrid & Juventus (H$688 at 82%)
1 week ago
kirin predicted Juventus & Zenit (H$20 at 9%)
2 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Juventus & Zenit (H$100 at 6%)
2 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Juventus & Zenit (H$100 at 4%)
2 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted Juventus & Zenit (H$100 at 2%)
more

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