
When will the Dalai Lama leave hospital?
Left Sept 1. First report 1:16 am EDT = 10:36am Mumbai time (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSDEL21646720080901
Background:>
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Clarification:Note that the question will have to be voided if he dies in hospital before Sept 8. In the context of the question as a whole, "leave" only refers to a living person departing a building.
Settled
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on or before 30th of August |
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Aug 31 - Sept 1 |
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Sept 2 - Sept 3 |
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Sept 4 - Sept 5 |
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Sept 6 - Sept 7 |
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after Sept 7 |
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Suspend date: Fri 5th Sep 10:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 2:50am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 10:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: on or before 30th of August: 17%, Aug 31 - Sept 1: 17%, Sept 2 - Sept 3: 16%, Sept 4 - Sept 5: 17%, Sept 6 - Sept 7: 17%, after Sept 7: 16%
Action history:
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jP5WKzz6SUo27ifPjRT6mJ9VLK3Q
http://theworsthorse.wordpress.com/2008/08/31/dalai-lama-leaving-hospital/
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSDEL21646720080901
Suspend date: Fri 5th Sep 10:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 2:50am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 10:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (45)
45 predictions
Comments (7)
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http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/dalai-lama-ill/2008/08/29/1219516698032.html
In my view, this clarification confuses the straight-forward intent of this question, and obfuscates accurate predictions by users.
Applying this "clarification" to all the other options, if a user believes the Dalai Lama will leave the hospital on September 4th, they would actually have to pick "September 3rd", as according to this clarification, "If Dalai Lama leaves hospital on September 4th, that means he would have to be in the hospital on that date to get discharged, otherwise he would have left on the 3rd".
Hubdub is not about "trick questions", nor questions that are not "clear and well-structured".
A simple edit to the last option would correct these problems: "After Sept 7th".
Adding clarifications to the actual "Settlement Details" would also make all clarifications easily available to all users -- especially new users.
The argument put forward in comment 5 is actually fallacious. Clarifying "is still in hospital" as overriding "leaves" only applies to the 8th. Perhaps a clearer clarification might have been "It doesn't matter. The question has already settled as Option 6, before any leaving could take place on the 8th." But there is no no redefining of the meaning of "leave" as applies to the named ranges of dates in the first 5 options. (There are no options for "is in hospital" on these dates, and so there is no ambiguity, and no "trick" in understanding the question.)
That said, it's simplest to just change the last option to "after Sept 7", which I have done.
Note that the question will have to be voided if he dies in hospital before Sept 8. In the context of the question as a whole, "leave" only refers to a living person departing a building.
I agree that there are no options for "is in hospital" on any of the other dates ... the problem with the earlier clarification was that it (incorrectly) introduced the status of "being in the hospital" on the same day of discharge ... when that status wasn't intended to apply to any of the options.
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