Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
My Predictions

When will the Dalai Lama leave hospital?

Settled as Aug 31 - Sept 1

Left Sept 1. First report 1:16 am EDT = 10:36am Mumbai time (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSDEL21646720080901

Background:

Dalai Lama is ill and hospitalised. When will he leave the hospital?

Background article


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Clarification:Note that the question will have to be voided if he dies in hospital before Sept 8. In the context of the question as a whole, "leave" only refers to a living person departing a building.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

on or before 30th of August
4%
Aug 31 - Sept 1
73%
Sept 2 - Sept 3
9%
Sept 4 - Sept 5
3%
Sept 6 - Sept 7
3%
after Sept 7
8%
Activity: H$16,380
Settled as Aug 31 - Sept 1 on Mon 1st Sep 2:50am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 5th Sep 10:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 2:50am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 10:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: on or before 30th of August: 17%, Aug 31 - Sept 1: 17%, Sept 2 - Sept 3: 16%, Sept 4 - Sept 5: 17%, Sept 6 - Sept 7: 17%, after Sept 7: 16%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 5:46pm PDT by jchiang
Suspended Thu 28th Aug 7:08pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending edits of typos in options.
Clarified Thu 28th Aug 7:46pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Options tidied up. All dates are in Mumbai time (GMT+5.5). Last option is now one day later (because of previous overlapping options). Suspend date moved up 1 day.
Unsuspended Thu 28th Aug 7:48pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Overlapping options tidied up.
Suspended Thu 28th Aug 10:35pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: umm... how does this settle if the Dalai Lama leaves the hospital on September 8th?
Clarified Fri 29th Aug 1:11am PDT by destry[Admin]: If Dalai Lama leaves hospital on September 8th, that means he would have to be in the hospital on that date to get discharged, otherwise he would have left on the 7th.
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 2:42am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement.
Settled as 'Aug 31 - Sept 1' Mon 1st Sep 2:50am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Left Sept 1. First report 1:16 am EDT = 10:36am Mumbai time (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSDEL21646720080901

Suspend date: Fri 5th Sep 10:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 2:50am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 10:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (45)

45 predictions

11 weeks ago
emmag predicted Aug 31 - Sept 1 (H$50 at 48%)
11 weeks ago
laaleelaalee predicted Aug 31 - Sept 1 (H$200 at 47%)
11 weeks ago
chull predicted Aug 31 - Sept 1 (H$100 at 40%)
11 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted Aug 31 - Sept 1 (H$20 at 40%)
12 weeks ago
kengm predicted Sept 2 - Sept 3 (H$200 at 25%)

Comments (7)

  1 jchiang
Forgot to supply newslink.. here it is
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/dalai-lama-ill/2008/08/29/1219516698032.html
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 curios
its a obvious question and should not be suspended
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 destry[Admin]
Market clarified. Here is the clarification for those of you that don't read settlement details. If Dalai Lama leaves hospital on September 8th, that means he would have to be in the hospital on that date to get discharged, otherwise he would have left on the 7th.
posted 12 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
@destry..glad to see your learning how to do your job. theres hope for you yet.
posted 12 weeks ago
"If Dalai Lama leaves hospital on September 8th, that means he would have to be in the hospital on that date to get discharged, otherwise he would have left on the 7th."

In my view, this clarification confuses the straight-forward intent of this question, and obfuscates accurate predictions by users.

Applying this "clarification" to all the other options, if a user believes the Dalai Lama will leave the hospital on September 4th, they would actually have to pick "September 3rd", as according to this clarification, "If Dalai Lama leaves hospital on September 4th, that means he would have to be in the hospital on that date to get discharged, otherwise he would have left on the 3rd".

Hubdub is not about "trick questions", nor questions that are not "clear and well-structured".

A simple edit to the last option would correct these problems: "After Sept 7th".

Adding clarifications to the actual "Settlement Details" would also make all clarifications easily available to all users -- especially new users.
posted 12 weeks ago
The problem was in my fixing up the options. I thought, "What state is it if all the 5 earlier options haven't settled? Well, if he hasn't left by the 7th, then he is still in the hospital as of the 8th." This of course means that, at 00:00:01 Mumbai time on the 8th, he was still in the hospital. (It makes it irrelevant if he then leaves on the 8th or later.) This is what the clarification made by Destry was saying, and it is correct.

The argument put forward in comment 5 is actually fallacious. Clarifying "is still in hospital" as overriding "leaves" only applies to the 8th. Perhaps a clearer clarification might have been "It doesn't matter. The question has already settled as Option 6, before any leaving could take place on the 8th." But there is no no redefining of the meaning of "leave" as applies to the named ranges of dates in the first 5 options. (There are no options for "is in hospital" on these dates, and so there is no ambiguity, and no "trick" in understanding the question.)

That said, it's simplest to just change the last option to "after Sept 7", which I have done.

Note that the question will have to be voided if he dies in hospital before Sept 8. In the context of the question as a whole, "leave" only refers to a living person departing a building.
posted 12 weeks ago
@infernalmachine -- thanks for the clarity!

I agree that there are no options for "is in hospital" on any of the other dates ... the problem with the earlier clarification was that it (incorrectly) introduced the status of "being in the hospital" on the same day of discharge ... when that status wasn't intended to apply to any of the options.
posted 12 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more