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Will the tropical system named Gustav make landfall in Florida?

Settled as No

Gustav did not make landfall in Florida

Background:

This is to include the keys. If Gustav eye makes landfall in keys that will settle as yes.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
3%
No
97%
Activity: H$34,513
Settled as No on Mon 1st Sep 3:07pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 4th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 3:07pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Aug 8:24pm PDT by scott1
Suspended Thu 28th Aug 10:25pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspending pending clarifications from category editor.
Unsuspended Fri 29th Aug 1:05am PDT by destry[Admin]: Market clarified and reopened.
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 9:05am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending review.

"NEW ORLEANS - Packing 110 mph winds, Hurricane Gustav made landfall on the Louisiana coast on Monday. The eye landed southwest of New Orleans at Cocodrie, La., at 10:30 ET, according to the National Hurricane Center."

Prediction made after 10:30 AM EDT may need to be voided.
Settled as 'No' Mon 1st Sep 3:07pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Gustav did not make landfall in Florida

Suspend date: Thu 4th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 1st Sep 3:07pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (24)

24 predictions

11 weeks ago
donaldduck predicted Yes (H$20 at 3%)
11 weeks ago
bayoubear[Admin] predicted No (H$5,000 at 96%)
11 weeks ago
abysscuria predicted Yes (H$20 at 4%)
11 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted No (H$6,000 at 94%)
12 weeks ago
mattimus predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 mrperfkt[Admin]
Do the Keys count?
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 scott1
I did this as a test... I'm not sure why it's susended now.
I didn't think of the keys. If gustav hits the keys, then I guess that counts... I was assuming only
the mainland -- since I just moved from there.
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 scott1
Since I didn't consider it, I think it should be left as key = florida! So, the 15% is actually pretty good chance now...
I'd give about 30-45% for keys. :-) but I'll stick and leave it at 15% for florida, even though I meant only the mainland. I think the keys *should* count.

I was using this map: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif
posted 12 weeks ago
  4 scott1
From that map, it looks like it's going to ZOOM past the keys... so, ya, lets leave it where keys = florida...
posted 12 weeks ago
  5 scott1
I see you're from WPB -- I just moved from there. I went there and for two years, no hurricanes... I leave, and there are storms all over.
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 destry[Admin]
Market is reopened. Title has been edited to fit what question creator meant. Standard practice on tropical storms and hurricanes is typically where it is deemed to make landfall. With regards to Florida, in the future anyone creating market should distinguish between mainland Florida and the keys.
posted 12 weeks ago

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