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Will George W. Bush speak in-person at the RNC?

Settled as No

He only spoke via satellite.

Background:

There is speculation that tropical storm Gustav might disrupt plans for the Republican National Convention. While some are speculating that it might cause a delay in the convention, others are saying that, at a minimum, President Bush might cancel his appearance at the convention. Will President George W. Bush speak live and in-person at the Republican National Convention during the first week of September?


Official Clarification
If convention is delayed and President Bush is able to speak in the first week meaning on September 1st up to and including September 6th this market will settle as a YES. If the convention is delayed beyond the first week, or President Bush chooses to not speak during the above mentioned time frame this market will settle as a NO.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
45%
No
55%
Activity: H$36,276
Settled as No on Fri 5th Sep 7:36pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 3pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 5th Sep 7:36pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th Aug 8:27am PDT by loren
Clarified Fri 29th Aug 5:31pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Official Clarification
If convention is delayed and President Bush is able to speak in the first week meaning on September 1st up to and including September 6th this market will settle as a YES. If the convention is delayed beyond the first week, or President Bush chooses to not speak during the above mentioned time frame this market will settle as a NO.
Settlement requested Sun 31st Aug 9:14am PDT by hightower: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080831/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_convention_rdp
Suspended Sun 31st Aug 9:24am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending link and voiding of late predictions.

President Bush has announced he will not speak at RNC, CNN reported, earlier than 11:09AM EDT.
Settlement requested Tue 2nd Sep 3:10pm PDT by randburg: A speaking cameo with Ted Kennedy settled as YES when he spoke at the Democratic Convention. Apparently George Bush is also going to get a speaking cameo on Tuesday night at the Republican Convention. This should also settle as YES?

http://my.att.net/s/editorial.dll?bfromind=7508&eeid=6054992&_sitecat=1504&dcatid=0&eetype=article&render=y&ac=-2&ck=&ch=ne
Settlement requested Wed 3rd Sep 8:44am PDT by rbrog77: He spoke from the White House, not in person.
Settlement requested Thu 4th Sep 2:12pm PDT by balcacer: Bush spoke live via the White House, not in person at the RNC
Settlement requested Fri 5th Sep 2:44am PDT by rbrog77: he didn't
Settlement requested Fri 5th Sep 10:44am PDT by jake: Settle as no. He didn't speak in person.
Settled as 'No' Fri 5th Sep 7:36pm PDT by destry[Admin]: He only spoke via satellite.

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 3pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 5th Sep 7:36pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (79)

79 predictions

11 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted No (H$1,579 at 52%)
11 weeks ago
jackpot11 predicted No (H$500 at 50%)
11 weeks ago
morgie predicted No (H$50 at 49%)
11 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted No (H$5,000 at 41%)
12 weeks ago
onedave[Power User] predicted No (H$20 at 25%)
more

Comments (12)

  1 destry[Admin]
Market suspend date was changed to Monday at 6pm EDT, if any official announcements are made prior to suspension then market will settle at that point.
On separate note, good job on creating well crafted markets.
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 tarpash
What if the convention is delayed, to say, the second week of September, but Bush still speaks? I ask this because the background says:

"Will President George W. Bush speak live and in-person at the Republican National Convention during the first week of September?"
posted 12 weeks ago
@ tarpash -- Good question!

The best way to get a category editor's attention to ask for a clarification like this is to hit the 'flag for review' link - the little icon next to the market graph. (At the current time you can only flag a market once.) It is also helpful to post your question here in the comments (as you have done) -- chances are that if you have the question, other users may as well!
posted 12 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
@ tarpash and newswrangler - If you have a clarification question please flag the question so a category editor is sent an email and can respond directly to your question, and if necessary post a clarification in the settlement details. However it is NOT advisable to post in the comment section, the comment section should be left clean and clear for those people wishing to comment on the question. Questions about the settlement of a market can be handled in the settlement details, background and action history. When you flag a market the category editor will figure out the best way to clarify market, and post response. We don't want there to be a discussion about clarification details going on in comments, as category editors can not possibly filter through all the comments on Hubdub.
posted 12 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
Official Clarification
If convention is delayed and President Bush is able to speak in the first week meaning on September 1st up to and including September 6th this market will settle as a YES. If the convention is delayed beyond the first week, or President Bush chooses to not speak during the above mentioned time frame this market will settle as a NO.
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 tarpash
@ destry and newswrangler
Sorry about not flagging. I will do so next time.
posted 12 weeks ago
  7 destry[Admin]
Thanks tarpash.
posted 12 weeks ago
  8 randburg
As noted in the Official Clarification above, it is possible for Bush to speak ANY TIME during this week and qualify for a YES settlement.

The fact that he has cancelled plans to attend on Monday does not settle this question. We have already seen Ted Kennedy do a reversal at the Democratic Convention, and the same is possible here, especially if hurricane relief is running smoothly later in the week.
posted 11 weeks ago
  9 balcacer
A White House transmissions counts as live?
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 destry[Admin]
The speech he gave from the White House does NOT count. As of now he has spoken in person at the RNC. I am going to leave market unsettled until RNC is closed, I'd hate for Bush to be the guy introducing McCain and have to resettle.
posted 11 weeks ago
"As of now he has spoken in person at the RNC."

Do you mean he has not spoken at the RNC?
posted 11 weeks ago
  12 destry[Admin]
Yes I meant NOT. Sorry about that.
posted 11 weeks ago

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