Will Sarah Palin be the next US VP?

This market is similar to another market about will the next VP be female or male, but since this market seems to focus on the potential for her to not make it through the vetting process, I believe it is different enough to let it run

But ultimately, the Republicans still have to win the election right? This isn't just about whether she can jump through the hoops so that her name is on the ballot come Nov.

@spyder good answer

This is pretty much just a disguised clone of Who will win the 2008 election? Seriously haven't we seen enough of these? Theres one with the wording of the question almost identical to a original who will win except instead of McCain or Obama its a republican or a democrat. And so on and so forth. Didn't it say in the question making helper that we not supposed to make clones?

I think this question incorporates some of the her withdrawing as a factor, as well as their ticket winning, plus maybe a little of John McCain dying.

ha ha maybe. If he does get elected and dies then its bad news for democrats. Sarah Palin is twice as conservative as McCain and twice as good a speaker. I hope these two will get people back to the republican side. If not then at least i get 4 more years of funny comics.

This question simply echoes the biases of the MSM who immediately started beating the "not sufficiently vetted" drum. Obama doesn't have to worry about being vetted because if they discovered that he robbed a bank, they would just bury it on page 57 to make room for another story about Palin's pregnant daughter.

Hmmm....50% of us think Palin will be the next vice president.
However, only 36% of us think McCain will be the next president.
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2047
How's this gonna work?

Palin, Ms. Trailer Trash of 1984, has a mean, revengeful and vindictive mode of governing. She is certainly not someone I want around to possibly start World War III! Come on...she's only been out of the country once...visiting Ireland (shopping at Shannon Intl. Airport!) on her way to visit Alaska troops in Iraq! Plus she went to six lower level colleges! The current female President of Germany has a Ph.D from that country's finest university! WalMart mom, no way, No McCain, No Palin, No Trailer Trash!
PS - I have a handicapped son with Cerebral Palsy and have better sense than to drag him around the country at four months of age! This is a good, caring mom? Hell, she only cares about ambition, money and POWER!!

Yeah Sarah is awesome. These statements are so vindictive against her - it just proves that there really isn't anything material the opposition can find, so they go for the personal attacks, with name-calling, saying she isn't one of the "elite", bring up about her children (you never hear an assement agains Charles DeGaul, for instance, even though he had a down syndrome child, or Joe Kennedy & he was out-right abominable with how he treated his daughter.) Yet Sarah just keep on going without getting all shrill and defensive. She has my admiration.

@loriphoward - Yeah, I hear you, mom's shouldn't work, they should be barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen!!!

@Erik - Unfortunately she has to take McCain with her. ;-)

@Eric you have a point! Maybe they think that McCain will die before the election starts. hmmm... if that happened..... would that mean that Palin takes over already? Hmmm.. In recorded history we have never had a president who won by default!

I just realized how bad this question's settlement details suck! What's with this: 5) Get inaugurated?

All it does is tie up the H$ of peeps who wager on Palin if she and McCain win. If they lose the Obamites get their coin right away. Seems kind of crappy to me.

@dragonfangxi if i remember right the current president MAY have won my default when the dust settled Florida's count was incorrect

@curios: that is actually incorrect. He won in every recount, even the privately funded ones that happend after the fact.

FYI: The text of my "Flag for Review" >>

I suggest removing caveat "5) Get inaugurated" - Here are two reasons that support this action:

1) If Obama wins, those who wagered on this outcome will get their earnings right away, however, if McCain wins those who wagered on that outcome will have their H$ tied up for 10 weeks. Since loss of access to wagering H$ retards wealth generation, this seems like an unfair bias toward those who may have wagered correctly on McCain. The result: They are somewhat penalized for winning whereas the opposing wagerers are not.

2) The likelihood that Sarah Palin would not become the next VP if she and McCain win the election is clearly less than one percent. HubDub precedent has tended to settle with 99% probabilities in the past and should do so here.

At this point, nobody really knows who is going to win as the race is incredibly tight. Therefore, NOW should be the time to make this change rather than after the election when a serious uproar may ensue.

Anyone that wagered on this market knew that the suspend date was Jan 20, 2009, they knew that #5 was a condition of question. Therefore this market will stay open until that time. If John McCain loses the election, market will settle as NO. If John McCain wins election market will run until jan 20th as originially intended.

@markov...also, if McCain wins, everyone's money will be tied up regardless of their wager...unless they choose to cash in. I suspect most "Obama" wagers will try to cut their losses by doing that...pushing the McCain odds up to nearly 100% allowing most of those players to cash in at nearly the full value if they want access to their h$ before January 20. Players who want the full amount will have to wait for it. Those types of decisions are always part of the game. Of course, this is based on Destry's statement that the market "will run" until Jan 20. If is is suspended on Nov 4, that would be another story. Based on the volatility of all of these election markets, I suspect a lot of people will be shortselling over the coming two months anyway. Thanks for bringing the issue up though. You make a good point...one that I hadn't considered as thoroughly being an optimistic Democrat who refuses to accept that McCain might win. However, for those who aren't patholicially delusional, it definitely something to consider when deciding on a wager.
In addition...as to the validity of point #5, suppose something came up with one of these "scandals" that forced Sarah Palin to step down as VP sometime in early January. Or...heaven forbid...remember the 2000 election and 2002 midterm elections? Senators Carnahan (MO) and Wellstone (MN) were both killed in plane crashes in the weeks before the elections those years...could just as easily occur in the weeks after. Stuff happens, as unlikely as it might be. I suspect the market odds will reflect that during the course of the election/post-election season, correctly leaving the bigger payouts to those who took the greater risks, smaller payouts to those who played it safe.
Of course, we could have recounts keeping us from knowing the outcome until December as in 2000. Or, there could be a tie in the electoral college, and then we won't know the outcome of the election until January. In that case, we could have an Obama President (decided by the state delegations in the House), and a Palin VP (decided by the Senate)...or maybe, in this case, both houses would bicker back and forth and remain tied in their appointments and we would have Nancy Pelosi as acting President well into February while they figure out the mess. Never know. It's the risk you take with longer-term questions.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

@smidge76 - Very well written comment. Though my note was pertaining to the probability that if Palin won the election and then subsequently failed to assume office as being less than 1% and the payout timing disparity, your comment pretty much covers all of the rest of the bases. I find your accurate observations in the last paragraph to be both fascinating and horrifying. Should any of that come to pass it might be the final shot to the head for the financial markets.

http://www.nationalenquirer.com/ She is a great conservative, wife, mother.
This newspaper has an amazing track record these days.

.... The national enquirer has a amazing track record.... is that what you just said? Because even though i apporoved of the underlying message, i beleive the national enquirer is the one that posted that famous article "My cousin married bigfoot". Is that right?

How does she expect to make it through Thursday if she can't even handle a news interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vbg6hF0nShQ

She sure is popular!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyrS3FzacW0

More photos that are hard to find in the news media.

http://www.jeffhead.com/palin/palin-hiding.htm

Here's Obama today
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/obama-draws-100000-at-den_n_137951.html

Here's Palin shining on Tuesday
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/us-election/donkey-wrong-sarah-palin-wears-vote-democrat-scarf-at-republican-rally-14011708.html

@mork:

Obama? In a Palin question? Check the topic! LOL

Here is Bill Clinton talking about Sarah Palin :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OztNpYdcw7I

No Dragon. Marge married bigfoot. http://www.newsweek.com/id/160082 www.geocities.com/zotik/img27l.html

@Mork,
It shows that Palin is trying to reach across the isle and encourage Democrats to vote - for McCain / Palin ticket. Our country is too divided and somebody has to begin the process to bridge the two parties.

http://www.internetweekly.org/2008/10/cartoon_mccain_parallel_universe.html

or
http://www.internetweekly.org/2008/10/cartoon_the_gops_race_queen.html

interesting comments before election day from Ms Palin to ABC about her political plans for 2012. Not surprising to many people though.

.......Such as?

Makin' Walnuts all wed faced and angwy :)
http://tinyurl.com/5s6xmx

ABC admits they doctored the Palin remarks.

Gosh. I missed that one :)

@deelilley - This is worth reading: "Canadians should support McCain"
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays_paper/story.html?id=921420

McCain generally does not have much support in Canada because we look forward to the positive impact Obama will have on the whole world. Self serving interest is only beneficial for the short term on matters this important. Not coincidentally most of people outside of the USA feel the same as we do.

I posted this in a forum the other day but I'll put it here too. It provides evidence for my previous post.
http://www.iftheworldcouldvote.com/

That is because of media hype - you have not had to live with Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Father Pfelger, or, Rashid Khalili. You do not want a man who has friends like these influencing policy decisions that affect the whole world!

Who am I to know if these are friends of his or only former associates? And yes, I do.

Rev. Wright has valid points regarding a racism that still exists in America. Much of this is based on ignorance and stupidity. When McCain implies that an Arab is not capable of being a "good family man" I realize that he is not the right guy for the job.

@notable
I'm amused how you assume I fallen victim to media hype and then proceed to list off Obama's "friends" in the precise order the media has dropped that propaganda on us.

The media didn't "drop that propaganda" on us. They reluctantly carried the news after bloggers had talked about it so thoroughly that the news agencies were ashamed not to report about it. Back to Sarah Palin - a lot of people who get their news from the "media" didn't even know who she was because they did a "black out" on her.

That was how I made a fair amout of $HD :-)

If American mainstream media were driven by shame it wouldn't be in the disgraceful state that it currently is.

@ mork Good point; that was the "right" order...another note: Fox "news" is on practically everywhere Americans go. It's really creeepy. "Television sets now broadcast programs constantly in airports, train stations, bars, fast food areas and cafeterias on college and university campuses, elevators, and many restaurants. Have you noticed their blaring presence in waiting rooms while your car is being serviced, while you are seeing a doctor, or while you are visiting a hospital?" http://hnn.us/articles/44904.html
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/0322061cheney1.html

@ notablenotices 22% of Americans still approve of Bush...the rest of the World? Not so much.

mork - we look forward to the positive impact Obama will have on the whole world.

see if you still feel that way after obama re-negoiates NAFTA and causes canadian's to lose job's.

Developing green technology and infrastructure, is long overdue and will develop jobs.
More jobs have been lost to overseas outsourcing than any that may have been gained by NAFTA, which if you consider the result of the softwood lumber dispute, isn't worth the paper it's written on.

In my mind, the vitrol we hear from people discussing Sarah goes more to a commentary on the character of the person talking. The Palin family are so much like every other good family I know. I just chaulk this kind of rage up to blind hatred.

She is the most popular governor out of the group of 50 current governors. Barack Obama sent a whole army of people up to Alaska to dig up dirt. They found a handful of people up there who she was not popular with, and it seems like they interviewed every last one of them!

The most talked about thing we have is this interview with Katie Couric, which we have never seen in its entiretly.

This certainly cannot amount to a rational basis for all the angry retorts from the left, who seem to be (in my opinion) stuck in screaming angry mode, in search of some material to yell about!

Excerpts from http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1167516/sarah_palins_unfavorability_rating.html

"One of the most common used lines by Senator John McCain to describe his running mate is that she is the "most popular governor in America," which is a disingenuous statement at best, considering hardly anyone knew who she was before she became his running mate. Where McCain gets his line from is that her percentage of favorability in Alaska is higher than any other governor in their respective state. If she had been put up against another governor in a another state, or perhaps placed in the pool of 50 governors for a national poll, most people would have simply said, "Sarah Who?"

"The Newsminer.com reports that Palin's favorability among Alaskans prior to her becoming McCain's second was roughly 90%. Not only did she poll well with her fellow Republicans, but she had a firm following of Democrats and Independents as well. But her Troopergate ethics problems, her billing the state for trips and at home work (when her office was only 40 miles away), and her rally speeches and interviews have cut considerably into the Democratic and Independent side of her support."

"An October 23 poll conducted by Ann Hayes shows Palin's popularity among Alaskans at 63%. A Rasmussen Poll released on October 29 shows her favorability at 61%."

Also from Anchorage Daily News: http://www.adn.com/opinion/view/story/567867.html
and Alaska Report: http://alaskareport.com/news98/x61723_palin_power_43729271.htm

Regarding disclosure of Health Records, the New York times reports: "Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, 44, Mr. McCain’s running mate, has released no medical information. " http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/us/politics/20health.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print

@mork

There you go again!

See comment #51

I am not expressing opinion Notable. Only providing facts.

Comment 51 can be applied to your attacks on Obama's family members in other forums though.

I don't think you realize that in African cultures family structures are much more community based and it is not unusual for people to have several people that are refered to as "aunts", "grandmothers", etc, who are not actually related to them.

I'm glad she gave up her phony red-neck facade though. It wasn't helping her credibility of being intelligent.

Ok, to state the obvious, I never acused you of not providing facts. They are just irrelevent to the remark you were trying to reply to, regardless of whether your statement was factual or not.

Nobody in Alaska said "Sarah who?" That was only from people who were on the receiving end of the media's black-out. Her popularity was in the high 80 percent range two years after being elected. This sustained popularity is uncommon, to say the least.

Here are some great pictures of one of her events!

http://candid-captures.smugmug.com/gallery/6331233_XF47e#399470786_eTpJv

Now that her support is down to the low 60's she can be comforted that she is considered more "common". I predict even more so in the future.

"Barack Obama sent a whole army of people up to Alaska to dig up dirt."

It is a fact that both Democrats and Replucans use the same strategies to push their own candidate and to denigrate the opponent. You should not throw dirt here.

diesel: Election of Obama will surely have a positive impact on the image the US have throughout the world. The way you and others are trying to miscredit that guy balances that gain out - so in the end you missed a chance to make new friends. (I know you will now say: Uh, I don't want you to be my friend. So this is what I'd respond: http://i51.photobucket.com/albums/f394/Ysabell/holgeratwork.jpg )

New Poll Shows Voters Confidence In Palin Rising
http://politicalstew.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/new-poll-shows-voters-confidence-in-palin/

Interesting that no republican women are speaking up or endorsing Palin....must be that notable has not reached them yet.

I think most are like Emmag, who can't understand a woman who'd spend 90-something bucks on a pacifier.

Thanks for your concern :-)

Republican Women Love Sarah Palin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zw9DHN9aU8o

http://womenagainstsarahpalin.blogspot.com/2008/10/american-women-endorse-obamabiden.html

really....I think not

Alaskan Women Don't
http://www.feministing.com/archives/011035.html

59 per cent of voters feel she is unfit for office, a 9 per cent rise in the past month.
http://news.scotsman.com/world/Obama-races-ahead-in-the.4651171.jp

"In a New York Times-CBS News poll completed this week, 59 percent of registered voters said Palin was not prepared to be vice president, up nine percentage points since the beginning of October. Almost a third of those polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major influence on their vote for president, and those voters broadly favored Obama".
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27483355/

The massive crowds that are greeting Governor Palin everywhere she goes are because they don't like her... No wait, that can't be right....

If the outcome of this election were to be based on the size of a crowd they draw Obama would still win. If you want to elect people based on the size of crowd they draw put ticketmaster in charge. Besides on Tuesday the crowd will speak.

For more impressive crowd photos may I suggest Googling adolf hitler, saddam hussein or kim jung ill.

Palin Loves France
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbEwKcs-7Hc

"Avenger: Some people said in the last days that you weren't unexperienced enough in foreign relations, and you know, that's completely false. That's the thing I said to the Prime Minister of Canada Stef Carse...

Palin: Well, he's doing fine too, and Yeah, when you come into a position underestimated, it gives you an opportunity to prove the pundits and the critics wrong, you work that much harder... "

I hope she's willing to work with her therapist after all this...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/us/politics/31poll.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

FYI

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/02/poll.one.party/index.html

Another point of view about Palin shows she is NOT that well liked even among republicans

No kidding.

She rallied was the lunatic fringe pretty darn good!