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How many times will the photogenic Governor Palin be on the cover of Time by election day 08?

Settled as Face seen twice

Last issue has been released.
Total of 2: http://www.time.com/time/searchresults?N=46
Oct 13
Sep 15

Background:

Senator McCain has selected a fresh face, the young and apparently vibrant and energetic Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska and former Miss Alaska contestant as his running mate. To date Time magazine covers have frequently showcased Senator Obama more often than McCain. Market is asking, between dates of 8/28/08 and 11/04/08, how many times will VP candidate Palin appear on the cover?

To qualify the following will be true:

Her face will plainly be shown on the cover of the magazine, i.e. not from behind.

1/2 or more of her face will be visible, (see the link for the cover that had 1/2 of Obama and 1/2 of Clinton for precedent).

Any issues of Time magazine will count, including likely special issues or special election issues.

Approx. 8 to 11 issues are likely between now and election day.

Follows are links pertinent to this market:

http://www.floiomag.com/files/images/obama_magazine_covers_2008.jpg

http://coverawards.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/timehilbar.jpg

http://www.time.com/time/coversearch


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Governor Palin absent from all Time covers
0%
Face seen once
92%
Face seen twice
3%
Face seen thrice
3%
Face seen 4 X
0%
Face seen 5 X
2%
Face seen 6 or more times
0%
Activity: H$69,476
Settled as Face seen twice on Tue 4th Nov 12:24pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 12:24pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 9pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Governor Palin absent from all Time covers : 2%, Face seen once: 5%, Face seen twice: 25%, Face seen thrice: 25%, Face seen 4 X: 23%, Face seen 5 X: 10%, Face seen 6 or more times: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th Aug 10:48am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 12:08pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 4th Nov 12:08pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Last issue has been released.
Total of 2: http://www.time.com/time/searchresults?N=46
Oct 13
Sep 15

Back void results... can't figure out when the last issue was released. Dated Nov 10, so assumedly Nov 3rd? (market suspended)
Settled as 'Face seen twice' Tue 4th Nov 12:24pm PST by destry[Admin]: Last issue has been released.
Total of 2: http://www.time.com/time/searchresults?N=46
Oct 13
Sep 15

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 12:24pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 9pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (136)

136 predictions

2 weeks ago
bigken1 predicted Face seen once (H$400 at 89%)
3 weeks ago
steez predicted Face seen once (H$100 at 72%)
3 weeks ago
steez predicted Face seen twice (H$200 at 64%)
3 weeks ago
steez predicted Face seen once (H$200 at 14%)
3 weeks ago
steez predicted Face seen once (H$300 at 10%)

Comments (6)

Will Governor Palin be On Time???
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
didn't know much about her till recently. first impression mccain made a fine choice. might even have to reverse the ticket :O)
posted 12 weeks ago
@dd - PalinMcCain08!!!
posted 12 weeks ago
Why is betting on 1 so high. She is on two covers technically (full face). Sept 15th and Oct 13th (she is there. It is small, but it meets the above conditions of more than half her face and plainly shown).
posted 2 weeks ago
  5 ladylara
Sneaky! Correct, but sneaky... I couldn't see the tiny insert one, and was heavily betting she was a one shot wonder! (Which I still think she is, and her 5 minutes is soon up!!!!) teeheeteehee
posted 2 weeks ago
Two bad I was too slow to notice before it got settled!
posted 2 weeks ago

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