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During which month will Wikipedia reach 2.6 million articles in English?

Settled as During October, 2008

It now exceeds 2.6m articles in English (see top of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page)

Background:

As of 8/29/2008, Wikipedia has 2,536,431 articles in English. In which of the coming months will Wikipedia reach 2.6 million articles in English?


Settlement details: As reported by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

During September, 2008
0%
During October, 2008
98%
During November, 2008
0%
During December, 2008
1%
On or after January 1st, 2009
1%
Activity: H$194,377
Settled as During October, 2008 on Sun 26th Oct 2:22pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 26th Oct 2:22pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 25th Oct 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: During September, 2008: 10%, During October, 2008: 20%, During November, 2008: 25%, During December, 2008: 25%, On or after January 1st, 2009: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th Aug 12:54pm PDT by geoff
Suspended Sat 25th Oct 5:14pm PDT by onedave[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sat 25th Oct 5:14pm PDT by onedave[Power User]: Wikipedia has reached 2.6 million articles according to its front page.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics (market suspended)
Settlement requested Sun 26th Oct 4:05am PDT by curios: taken from wikipedia
Welcome to Wikipedia,
the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit.
2,600,329 articles in English
Settled as 'During October, 2008' Sun 26th Oct 2:22pm PDT by tomg[Admin]: It now exceeds 2.6m articles in English (see top of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page)

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (5 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 26th Oct 2:22pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 25th Oct 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (163)

163 predictions

4 weeks ago
shojun predicted During October, 2008 (H$1,000 at 98%)
4 weeks ago
pixelpaws predicted During October, 2008 (H$1,000 at 98%)
4 weeks ago
foosboy predicted During October, 2008 (H$100 at 95%)
4 weeks ago
geoff predicted During November, 2008 (H$500 at 8%)
4 weeks ago
bruns_david predicted During November, 2008 (H$50 at 4%)
more

Comments (17)

  1 geoff
9/3 - 2,542,098
posted 11 weeks ago
  2 geoff
9/15 - 2,554,853
posted 9 weeks ago
  3 geoff
9/19 - 2,558,437
posted 9 weeks ago
  4 geoff
9/22 - 2,561,597
posted 8 weeks ago
  5 pixelpaws
9/27 - 2,563,508. Must have been an awfully slow week.
posted 7 weeks ago
dragon is working on 50,000 articles tonight, so it should work out....i'm sure they'll be great!!!
posted 7 weeks ago
Yep. Its called "How do monkeys respond to be poked, part 1"! Only 49999 to go.
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 geoff
10/3 - 2,570,691
posted 7 weeks ago
  9 lrossouw
I am predicting roughly 2,597,000 pages based on 940 pages per day. I get the 940 based on the number of pages per day from 3 Sep to 8 Oct.

Seems a lot less certain to be Nov than these odds suggest.
posted 6 weeks ago
  10 lrossouw
That is 2,597,000 by 31 October. Going to be close.
posted 5 weeks ago
ok! All we have to do is go out and write 3000 articles! If we work together it should take no time at all!
posted 5 weeks ago
  12 lrossouw
19-Sep 2,558,437
14-Oct 2,581,870
That is 937 per day over roughly the last month.

Estimate for end of October is:
31-Oct 2,597,804

Only 2200 to write!
posted 5 weeks ago
  13 lrossouw
Thought I'd add a similar question but based on Google Gmail storage: http://www.hubdub.com/m19094/During_which_month_will_Googles_Gmail_storarge_reach_8000MB
posted 5 weeks ago
  14 filanator
18 Oct - 2,588,028. New estimate for end of october is 2,600,209
posted 4 weeks ago
  15 lrossouw
20 Oct - 2,591,013
That is 1,031 per day since 19 Sep
31 Oct estimate is now 2,601,760
posted 4 weeks ago
  16 filanator
24 Oct - 2,598,926
That now makes 1,157 per day since 19 Sep.
New estimate for 31 Oct is 2,607,024.
posted 4 weeks ago
  17 pixelpaws
2,599,055 as of October 24. Seems like this might happen tomorrow given the other numbers posted here.
posted 4 weeks ago

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