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What percentage of Clinton supporters will vote for McCain/Palin?

Voided

Market voided. No clear settlement source to determine an accurate count.

Background:

Some believe Clinton's hardcore women supporters will now vote for McCain because he chose Sarah Palin as his VP.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

2%
55%
5%
35%
8%
7%
15%
3%
Voided Fri 29th Aug 10:15pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 3rd Nov 2010 12:59am PDT (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: 2%: 55%, 5%: 35%, 8%: 7%, 15%: 3%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th Aug 5:02pm PDT by suesol
Suspended Fri 29th Aug 6:32pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]: Flagged by super user: please suspend, unable to be clairvoyant
Voided Fri 29th Aug 10:15pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Market voided. No clear settlement source to determine an accurate count.

Suspend date: Wed 3rd Nov 2010 12:59am PDT (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (1)

1 prediction

No public predictions yet

Comments (5)

  1 scott
What a stupid question. How can it possibly be answered.
posted 12 weeks ago
@ suesol,

Thank you for your question and welcome to the site, creating questions can be tricky and I would like to suggest to you a part of this site designed to help new users understand how to construct strong questions @ http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion. Unfortunately, this question, as written will be impossible to settle. Looking forward to future questions from you!
posted 12 weeks ago
This is really a fantastic question, but I can't see how it could be settled right now. I wish we could have some idea what the exit poll questions were going to be. I'm betting that there will be something along these lines included in at least one set of exit polling.
posted 12 weeks ago
@ jenniandboys -- is it asking to be settled now?

I, too, think there would be exit polling on Election Day that would settle the question. If not, it could be voided then. This is one of the ultimate questions for a prediction market!
posted 12 weeks ago
Dear suesol,
We all agree, this question has merit, but it needs to be adjusted so it can somehow be quantified. Would you be amenable to a replacement that looked something like this?

"What exit polled % of Clinton supporters will report that they had voted for McClain/Palin?" If you're agreeable I'd be happy to post as such for you.
posted 12 weeks ago

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