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Per Social Security Admin, how many of the Palin's kids names make Top 1000 list for 2008?

Current forecast: Two of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008 (54% chance4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Two of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008 with a probability of 54% (up 4% in last 1 day)

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was 'introduced' to much of the United States this week when she was selected by Republican Senator, John McCain to be his running mate on the GOP ticket for President. Mrs. Palin and her husband Todd have five children whose names are somewhat unique. They are Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper and Trig. Using the Social Security Database for the 1,000 most popular names chosen by Americans for their children each year, how many of these five names do you anticipate will be on the Top 1,000 list for 2008?


There is a strong chance that at least two of the names; Willow and Piper will be on the list. Willow has made the Top 1,000 list for the past 10 years, the highest being 1998 at 853 and the lowest was 2007 with 430. Piper has made the list the past 9 years, but it has also been in decline a bit, highest year was 1999 at 700 and just 240 in 2007.

Safest best would appear to be 2 out of 5, but Governor Palin's exposure and/or popularity may give a bump to these names, or possibly even the more obscure names of Willow and Piper's siblings; Track, Bristol and Trig.

Please refer to this link for more information including a box where you can input a name and check it's popularity.

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/cgi-bin/babyname.cgi


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

None of these names make Top 1000 in 2008
5%
One of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008
4%
Two of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008
54%
Three of these names make Top 1000 in 2008
26%
Four of these names make Top 1000 in 2008
11%
All five names make Top 1000 in 2008
1%
Activity: H$5,856
Question suspends in 22 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 9th May 2009 12:59am PDT (22 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: None of these names make Top 1000 in 2008 : 3%, One of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008: 5%, Two of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008 : 65%, Three of these names make Top 1000 in 2008: 20%, Four of these names make Top 1000 in 2008: 5%, All five names make Top 1000 in 2008: 2%

Action history:

Created Sat 30th Aug 6:21am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Changed Suspend date Thu 23rd Oct 10:17am PDT by chris[Admin]: was: "2009-05-31 23:59:00"

Suspend date: Sat 9th May 2009 12:59am PDT (22 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (39)

39 predictions

3 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted Two of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008 (H$20 at 50%)
3 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted Two of these names makes Top 1000 in 2008 (H$100 at 50%)
5 weeks ago
divakaleigh predicted Three of these names make Top 1000 in 2008 (H$50 at 29%)
10 weeks ago
mommy predicted Three of these names make Top 1000 in 2008 (H$50 at 28%)
10 weeks ago
jamesgriffin601 predicted None of these names make Top 1000 in 2008 (H$58 at 4%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 randburg
In an Ancient Time, Far Away: There was a very popular men's deodorant called Trig...
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 mork[Power User]
Cool question.
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 smidge76
I agree with mork. It is a cool question. I never would have thought of that take on it.

If the last two administrations are any indication though, the question might actually be coming a year too soon for us to see a bump. Out of curiosity, I looked up the name, Jenna, to see if President Bush gave it a bump. In 2000 while Bush was campaigning, it had declined to #64 from #61. However, after he took office in 2001, it jumped up to #45. It declined slowly in the years to follow until 2006 and 2007 when it declined rapidly...perhaps following Bush's own popularity ratings?? :) (The name Barbara didn't seem to be impacted, but I wouldn't expect people to snatch that one up anyway)

Lest the Republicans feel picked on, I'll also point out that the name Chelsea was moving steadily up the list through 1992, and then began a fairly significant and steady decline from 1993 on (from #15 in 1993 to #209 in 2007). Maybe its true that conservatives hate the Clintons more than the liberals love them...or maybe politics have no effect on baby names. Interesting to note that it followed the same pattern though...moving in one direction all the way through the election year, and then changed direction the year that Dad took office. Well, interesting to me anyway, but I'm a geek.

By the way, despite this, I still put my money on one more name being added to the list. It looks like most years it takes a little less than 200 births to make the boys list. Trig and Track are names that I could envision hearing at the playground, and since they are so unusual I think they might grab people's attention. There have got to be a few expecting parents watching the political coverage who are still fighting over names, right? So maybe Palin's kids will buck the trend.
posted 13 weeks ago

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