triathematician 
Will Sarah Palin help McCain close the female polling gap (Gallup daily weekly aggregate)?
Obama by 11 or more points (Obama 51%, McCain 39%)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx
Background:
The number of interest in the market is the difference in polling points between Obama and McCain among women, as reported at http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx.
Note: in the event the dates of the next aggregate are not precisely 8/25-8/31, the market will settle based on the next result released.
Editor's note: It is impossible to determine casuality in polls, this question will be settled based on Gallup polling numbers. We can't determine what effect is actually from Palin's selection or other causes. [JaB]
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx. Market concerns the numbers for women ONLY. Market settles for the 8/25-8/31 aggregate, or the first released aggregate if one with these precise dates is not released.
Settled
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McCain leads among women |
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Tie, or Obama leads by 1-2 points |
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Obama leads by 3-5 points |
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Obama leads by 6-10 points |
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Obama leadsd by 11 or more points |
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Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 3:59pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: McCain leads among women: 5%, Tie, or Obama leads by 1-2 points: 20%, Obama leads by 3-5 points: 40%, Obama leads by 6-10 points: 30%, Obama leadsd by 11 or more points: 5%
Action history:
triathematician 
smidge76: Should settle as Obama by 11 or more points (Obama 51%, McCain 39%)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Obama by 11 or more points (Obama 51%, McCain 39%)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx
Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 3:59pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (51)
51 predictions
pembeci
rogi
cognos![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Tie, or Obama leads by 1-2 points (H$100 at 24%)
ryanj
tkohler
valornhonorComments (1)
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