triathematician 
What will the margin be among men in the next Gallup daily weekly aggregate (gender)?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx
Background:
The number of interest in the market is the difference in polling points between Obama and McCain among men, as reported at http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx.
Note: in the event the dates of the next aggregate are not precisely 8/25-8/31, the market will settle based on the next result released.
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx. Market concerns the numbers for men ONLY. Market settles for the 8/25-8/31 aggregate, or the first released aggregate if one with these precise dates is not released.
Settled
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Tie or Obama leads among men |
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McCain leads by 1-3 points |
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McCain leads by 4-6 points |
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McCain leads by 7-9 points |
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McCain leads by 10 or more points |
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Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 6:17pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Tie or Obama leads among men: 1%, McCain leads by 1-3 points: 14%, McCain leads by 4-6 points: 50%, McCain leads by 7-9 points: 30%, McCain leads by 10 or more points: 5%
Action history:
triathematician 
pembeci: Settled as tie 46%-46%:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108022/Candidate-Support-Gender.aspx
Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 6:17pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Get widget!Predictions (17)
17 predictions
cognos![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Tie or Obama leads among men (H$100 at 2%)
trevoranderson
opie
ryanj
newswrangler
valornhonorComments (0)
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