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What will Apple's "Product Transition" be?

Settled as Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.)

A new manufacturing process. New MacBooks with unibody aluminum, multitouch glass trackpads, led backlights. http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_mac/family/macbook?mco=MTkzODkxOQ

Background:

Background: According to AppleInsider,
"During his quarterly financial results call [in late July], Apple's chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer revealed that the company will make a key 'product transition' that cuts back on its profit margins to help shut out rivals.

"A frequent point of discussion during the hour-long call, the mystery transition will drop Apple's gross margins from 34.8 percent in the spring quarter to just 31.5 percent in the July-to-September window in which the update takes place, ultimately settling at about 30 percent during Apple's fiscal 2009.

"The new, unnamed product will continue to have 'technologies and features that others can't match,' according to the CFO."

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
A video encode/decode chip in any Mac &/or iPod
4%
Some other specialized chip in any Mac &/or iPod
2%
LEDs to provide backlighting in any Mac &/or iPod
1%
Bundled third-party software in any Apple product
2%
Something other than the above in any Mac (only)
3%
Something other than the above in any iPod (only)
5%
Something other than the above in both Mac & iPod
2%
Something other than the above for the iPhone
5%
Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.)
77%
Settled as Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.) on Wed 15th Oct 2008 12:30am PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 12:30am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 11am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: A video encode/decode chip in any Mac &/or iPod: 15%, Some other specialized chip in any Mac &/or iPod: 10%, LEDs to provide backlighting in any Mac &/or iPod: 8%, Bundled third-party software in any Apple product: 5%, Something other than the above in any Mac (only): 10%, Something other than the above in any iPod (only): 10%, Something other than the above in both Mac & iPod: 10%, Something other than the above for the iPhone: 2%, Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.): 30%

Action history:

Created Sat 30th Aug 2008 10:10am PST by rogerkni
Suspended Tue 9th Sep 2008 8:51am PST by tomg[Admin]: Suspended for "Let's Rock" event start
Suspended Tue 9th Sep 2008 9:30am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 10th Sep 2008 4:08am PST by jimmyboxcar: Event has concluded.
Unsuspended Wed 10th Sep 2008 12:20pm PST by tomg[Admin]: Reopening question - no clear product transition of the kind mentioned. From Question creator: "it seems like a stretch that a mere accelerometer would qualify as a new technology 'that competitors can't match,' as Oppenheimer boasted."
Unsuspended Wed 10th Sep 2008 12:33pm PST by tomg[Admin]: There were no advancements in the "Let's Rock" event that are clearly worthy of the "product transition" being referred to.

From the question creator: "...it seems like a stretch that a mere accelerometer would qualify as a new technology 'that competitors can't match,' as Oppenheimer boasted."
Settlement requested Wed 10th Sep 2008 1:15pm PST by dragonfangxl: Apple released a new ipod. http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN0929983020080910 Wondering if this counts.
Settlement requested Wed 10th Sep 2008 1:15pm PST by dragonfangxl: Apple released a new ipod. http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN0929983020080910 Wondering if this counts.
Settlement requested Tue 14th Oct 2008 8:23pm PST by thepeoplegeekllc: New MacBooks with unibody aluminum, multitouch glass trackpads, led backlights. http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_mac/family/macbook?mco=MTkzODkxOQ
Settled as 'Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.)' Wed 15th Oct 2008 12:30am PST by tomg[Admin]: A new manufacturing process. New MacBooks with unibody aluminum, multitouch glass trackpads, led backlights. http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_mac/family/macbook?mco=MTkzODkxOQ

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 12:30am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 11am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (130)

1 year ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.) (H$499 at 76%)
1 year ago
nitescan predicted Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.) (H$50 at 75%)
1 year ago
ejfb1029 predicted Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.) (H$150 at 74%)
1 year ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.) (H$900 at 76%)
1 year ago
lewisdotcom predicted Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.) (H$1,000 at 76%)

Comments (15)

  1 rogerkni
I created this question because it specifically addresses the matter of the "product transition" Apple referred to, not just what new bit of hardware Apple happens to announce first will be. That question, and my comments, can be found at: http://www.hubdub.com/m12315/What_will_Apples_next_major_hardware_release_be
posted 1 year ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
nice one Roger
posted 1 year ago
  3 rogerkni
Thanks, Tisha. I just realized I should have added this option after my third item above:
"Touch technology in any Mac &/or iPod."
posted 1 year ago
  4 tomg[Admin]
Note: Suspend date changed to be just before tomorrow's keynote on request of question creator
posted 1 year ago
  5 subsonic
This is fun. I find the available choices a bit confusing though. I predict that mac mini will grow into something else, is there a choice that fit my prediction??
posted 1 year ago
Hey they just released a new Ipod. Does that count?
posted 1 year ago
  7 rogerkni
@#5: I suspect that what you have in mind is that the Mac Mini will be merged with the Apple TV, which is a rumor I've heard. The last item in the list above ("Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.)") would cover that. However, even if that new product is announced, that won't trump something that better fits the Apple CFO's statement above, which implies something that will have a major effect on Apple's overall margins.

@#6: The iPod changes will count if there is nothing that is a better fit (for Apple's July statement) announced at the October 14 product announcement.
posted 1 year ago
  8 rogerkni
Today I came across this post on the "Seeking Alpha" stock market opinion site. It suggests to me that this is a coming wave in laptops and that Apple likely has pioneered with it, inducing Dell to try to catch up. This is the product transition that I think is the best fit for what Oppenheimer described in July.

Dell To Put LEDs in All Its Laptops
September 24, 2008 By Michael Kanellos
They’re going bonkers for LEDs and energy efficiency at Dell.
The Round Rock, Texas-based PC maker plans to aggressively promote laptops with screens lit with light emitting diodes [LEDs]. Right now, most laptops come with screens lit by cold cathode florescent bulbs: Most manufacturers actually offer LEDs in only a few select models.
A year from now, LEDs will be available across all laptops from Dell in every region in the world, said Michael Murphy, who runs worldwide environmental affairs for Dell. By the end of 2009, 80 percent of the laptops Dell ships will have LED screens. By the end of 2010, Dell will only sell LED-based laptops.
Getting consumers to pick up LED laptops shouldn’t be too tough. Although more costly now, the price delta on these machines is dropping. Five months from now, the price tag on LED and standard laptops will be about the same, Murphy said. Dell’s costs for putting in LEDs will be a little higher, but the delta will begin to become negligible.
At the same time, LED laptops will sport a number of benefits. ...

[For the rest, go to http://seekingalpha.com/article/97202-dell-to-put-leds-in-all-its-laptops
posted 1 year ago
Does apple have LEDs in there laptops? As far as energy effeciency goes apple isnt especially ahead in that market.
posted 1 year ago
  10 rogerkni
In July Peter Oppenheimer said that the product transition was intended to prevent setting prices so high that they provided an umbrella for competitors, who could own the low end. Poster "johnqh" on AppleInsider therefore argued that the transition "is a lower margin product. Since Apple feels the need to squeeze competitors, it is a mass market product [with] which Apple hopes to achieve economies of scale quickly." Another poster there argued that only such a high-impact item would have the ability to reduce Apple's overall product margins in 2009 as substantially as Oppenheimer predicted. So I now think that, although Apple will probably add LEDs and perhaps other features to the latest versions of its Macbooks, those tweaks won't be as good a fit for what Oppenheimer predicted as a low-end addition to the Macbook lineup.
posted 1 year ago
  11 rogerkni
PS: A new, low-end Macbook would count as "a new product," which is the last item in the list above, and the most popular choice among bettors.
posted 1 year ago
  12 rogerkni
Another item that would qualify as the transition product would be a souped-up, low-cost Mac Mini.
posted 1 year ago
  13 rogerkni
Here's the latest speculation--a good one IMO--from AppleInsider, by poster MyopiaRocks. It also would qualify as a "new product":

"A Guess: There will be a docking station for macbooks. It will be a brick. It will connect wirelessly, not with some ugly dock-connection port. The laptop itself will have, at most, two plugs: power and display, possibly via usb. The brick will have more stuff: superdrive, firewire, usb, 2400 baud modem, ethernet, optical-audio out, cassette-tape backup, scsi, nubus, whatever. It can be out of sight, or sit next to (with a physical connection, if desired) your airport, printer, stereo, etc. The macbook itself will be like the air (similar size/shape/weight); people can buy a 2nd brick for their office/home if they want
posted 1 year ago
  14 rogerkni
A rumor just out today states that "the brick" will be a new laser-based manufacturing process here in the US. Very exciting and apparently credible. (This would count as "something else.") Here's the link:
http://www.9to5mac.com/macbook-brick
posted 1 year ago
  15 mork[Power User]
That would be revolutionary. Very cool indeed. I'll believe it when I see it though :). I hope so.
posted 1 year ago

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