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Where will Ike first hit dry land?

Settled as Other Caribbean island

Ike's eye was tracked over the caicos islands

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/eye_of_ike_over_caicos_islands.html

Background:

The next tropical storm (as of August 30, 2008) in the Atlantic basin will be named Ike. We are getting into the time of year when tropical storms form in the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, I am giving the Gulf Coast a smaller starting percentage than you might expect. Keep in mind, Ike may hit land any time after he makes tropical storm status. Anywhere else in Florida refers to the Florida keys.

Clarification: For the purposes of this question, Turks and Caicos are to be considered part of Caribbean


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source or by nhc.noaa.gov. Clarification: For the purposes of this question, Turks and Caicos are to be considered part of Caribbean

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Bahamas or Atlantic Coast of Florida
9%
Georgia, South Carolina or North Carolina
4%
US Atlantic Coast north of North Carolina
1%
Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, anywhere else in FL
2%
Mexico, TX, AL, MS, LA, Gulf Coast of Florida
8%
Latin America south of Mexico
3%
Other Caribbean island
70%
Anywhere else, nowhere or Ike does not form
2%
Activity: H$36,798
Settled as Other Caribbean island on Mon 8th Sep 4:46pm PDT

Suspend date: last Sunday 7pm PST Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 4:46pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 6th Sep 8:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Bahamas or Atlantic Coast of Florida: 25%, Georgia, South Carolina or North Carolina: 15%, US Atlantic Coast north of North Carolina: 10%, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, anywhere else in FL: 5%, Mexico, TX, AL, MS, LA, Gulf Coast of Florida: 5%, Latin America south of Mexico: 5%, Other Caribbean island: 15%, Anywhere else, nowhere or Ike does not form: 20%

Action history:

Created Sat 30th Aug 5:27pm PDT by onedave[Power User]
Clarified Tue 2nd Sep 8:33pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Anywhere else in Florida refers to the Florida keys
Clarified Thu 4th Sep 9:28am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Turks and Caicos are part of Caribbean
Clarified Thu 4th Sep 2:13pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Turks and Caicos are part of Caribbean as per Turks and Caicos tourism site http://www.turksandcaicostourism.com/
Settlement requested Sat 6th Sep 9:28pm PDT by onedave[Power User]: Recommend settlement as 'Other Caribbean island.' According to the following two sources, Ike hit the Turks and Caicos Islands. I do not see any sources that say that any other land was hit.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/nation/5987808.html
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/eye_of_ike_over_caicos_islands.html
Suspended Sun 7th Sep 2:51am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Overviewing settlement
Settled as 'Other Caribbean island' Mon 8th Sep 4:46pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Ike's eye was tracked over the caicos islands

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/eye_of_ike_over_caicos_islands.html

Suspend date: last Sunday 7pm PST Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 4:46pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 6th Sep 8:15pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (85)

85 predictions

12 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted Other Caribbean island (H$555 at 70%)
12 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted Mexico, TX, AL, MS, LA, Gulf Coast of Florida (H$100 at 9%)
12 weeks ago
joaoxxx predicted Other Caribbean island (H$20 at 68%)
12 weeks ago
joaoxxx predicted Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, anywhere else in FL (H$50 at 4%)
12 weeks ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted Other Caribbean island (H$1,000 at 63%)
more

Comments (12)

  1 bigken1
Considering that Ike led the D-day forces, I would think the answer should be France. I do not even see that as an answer. Why do i get so many wrong answers? Or maybe the question deals with when his mother gave birth? I would need to look that up in a biography, but i think they were from the midwest. Oh well.

I also know he went to West point, which is New York. As a new yorker myself, I do not consider any other places really exist, so why is new york not even given its own line? Normally I would ask for questions like this to be voided, but I am in a good mood today, so i will consider this question as some kind of out of touch joke.

Are other people out of touch, or is just me? This should be the real question. the answer is tooo obvious - other people.
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 bigken1
Oh, wow. I just checked my facts, and Ike was born in Texas... So, that is where he first hit dry land... Hehehe..
sorry folks....
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 onedave[Power User]
I am waiting for the spike on the Texas option.
posted 13 weeks ago
  4 comte
I take it the Turks and Caicos count as "Other" (since they are not part of the Bahamas and not in the Caribbean).
posted 12 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
I believe the Turks and Caicos are commonly recognised as being in the Caribbean?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caribbean

I would suggest Turks and Caicos should be settled as Other Caribbean Island. Flagging for Ryan.
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 bigken1
Well, obviously differences in human opinions on what words mean what objects makes differences in how we estimate probabilities!
the national hurricane center just lists all these islands as the bahamas --- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day#contents

So, how are we supposed to know? if it is not defined in the question, what "other islands" means? and one term says bahamas, without listing which are the bahamas????? one place shows all these islands as bahamas, the other site (tisha describes) suggests all are part of caribbean, so why are some called caribbean and others not? The question needs to say what source defines which are bahamas, and which are not ---- it doesnt.
posted 12 weeks ago
  7 bigken1
Also, of course, what does "hit dry land" mean? The first place rain hits dry ground? Or the eye passes over?
posted 12 weeks ago
  8 bigken1
Let me say, I have no problem with tisha's clarification. It might be unfortunate (for my H$ :) ) to have this mean as she indicates, but I am fine with anything... It would be nicer to have clearer definitions when questions are posed, but i guess this is a continual problem on HD... , and with our modern usage of English, where we don't specify what we mean...

actually, i just looked at tisha's article more closely, and the map shows the caribbean sea, and caribbean plate, as not including the turks and caicos --- see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Tectonic_plates_Caribbean.png
which shows the map, and of course the other pictures which show the caribbean sea as NOT including the above islands (they show the large islands of cuba, etc. as being the northern most point of the caribbean)...
posted 12 weeks ago
This question has been clarified this afternoon by a category editor. Hopefully the clarification will soon be added to the Settlement Details.

"Turks and Caicos are part of Caribbean"
posted 12 weeks ago
  10 ryanj[Admin]
Hi bigken,

Tisha is correct that the islands are in the Caribbean. According to the Island's tourism site they are part of the Caribbean. (http://www.turksandcaicostourism.com/)

Ryan
posted 12 weeks ago
  11 bigken1
The online britannica calls the turks and caicos part of the bahamas... I hate to differ. I do not expect you to change your decision, as decisive decisions are important. Nevertheless, here is the site:

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/610193/Turks-and-Caicos-Islands

The earlier info, dealing with the plates, and how the caribbean sea is defined (in terms of plates) makes some sense geologically.


From a tourism perspective, it may be better for the bureau you site, for the islands to list them as part of the caribbean rather than the atlantic...(since the former is warm and the latter is cold).

In any case, I am minimizing some of my losses, and the hurricane has not arrived, nor do we know what hits dry land means.. I hope we can find out from some reputable source like the tourism site... :)

thanks for your efforts at clarification...

Sorry, can't resist seeing the humor in this.. Well, I have said too much already...
posted 12 weeks ago
  12 onedave[Power User]
The position as of 11:00 pm was near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070247.shtml?
posted 12 weeks ago

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