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Will Sarah Palin step down as the VP nominee before the november election?

Settled as No

Background: the well known author steven johnson predicted this on twitter on August 29th.
http://twitter.com/stevenbjohnson/statuses/903572195
let's bet on it

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
2%
No
98%
Settled as No on Tue 4th Nov 2008 10:36am PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 10:36am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Sun 31st Aug 2008 3:32am PST by fredwilson
Settlement requested Tue 4th Nov 2008 10:08am PST by newswrangler[Power User]: Winning prediction = "No".

Palin did not step down before the election.
Settled as 'No' Tue 4th Nov 2008 10:36am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 10:36am PST details

 

Predictions (388)

1 year ago
mr_eric_mc predicted No (H$100 at 98%)
1 year ago
divakaleigh predicted No (H$450 at 96%)
1 year ago
shojun predicted No (H$2,000 at 96%)
1 year ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$2,000 at 95%)
1 year ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$1,000 at 95%)

Comments (50)

Interesting thought, but I don't see it. McCain can't afford the "bad judgement" brush he would be painted with. I think they'd rather tough it out than have her step down... (assuming there isn't some MAJOR scandal yet to come!)
posted 1 year ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Maybe the Republicans won't accept her. Strange things could happen.
posted 1 year ago
  3 randburg
I think jenni is absolutely right...

McCain -- right or wrong -- can't afford to admit that messing with the glass ceiling was a huge booboo. IMHO I think he failed to pick up that the real issue was "Hillary"...Isn't this like requesting something special for a Christmas Wish, but what is under the tree is "close", but not what you wanted at all?

For McCain to gamble his entire election on a fairly junior, "substitute Hillary" is a terrific risk in my thinking...Does this indicate how he will run the US as President?

Thinking out loud, a fascinating question comes to mind:

If the hurricane does hit New Orleans and the Republican Convention is delayed or converted into a "volunteer rescue effort", will this help McCain divert attention away from the strange choice of VP candidate? Could he be saved by a hurricane?

In fairness, I guess we need to keep an open mind and watch how the Republican Convention plays out...
posted 1 year ago
  4 randburg
And another thought:

If she steps down, will we get all those hubdub dollars back that we lost on McCain's choice of Vice President?

No, I didn't think so...
posted 1 year ago
  5 roundball
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-69834

http://img364.imageshack.us/img364/4628/sarahpalinla4.png

Interesting question. I would like to see how it plays out over the next month.
posted 1 year ago
  7 randburg
Step down? NO.

Not be selected at the convention next week: now THAT is a possibility...
posted 1 year ago
  8 roundball
Good point randburg. I guess I wasn't aware that the delegates could turn down a v.p.

I may have to research this and change my bet.
posted 1 year ago
  9 yonemoto
delegates can turn down a president, for certain.
posted 1 year ago
  10 schenz
Why should she step down. I'm not seeing anything that regular Americans haven;t dealt with before. I think this makes her a stronger candidate in that she is in touch with what goes on in a real family.
posted 1 year ago
  11 ironman288
Why would someone more qualified for the job than either of the men on the other ticket step down?
posted 1 year ago
  12 frank2877
Step down? No way! I like her better than anyone else that's been nominated!
posted 1 year ago
  13 jjw07652
She's got more scandals going on that most are aware of... including John McCain.
posted 1 year ago
Daily Kos puts this at 50/50, although I think their viewership is SLIGHTLY skewed... http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/1/224723/7128
posted 1 year ago
  15 Erik
lol....yes jenni, only slightly.
I don't see the problem here. To put a skew on Mrs. Obama's utterance: For the first time in years, I'm proud to be a Republican.
posted 1 year ago
  16 roosh
if she does step down the reason will most likely be family-related, perhaps the stress of being VP would be too much on her growing brood
posted 1 year ago
  17 bigken1
If she steps down, it would be because of self-interest...
It might be put in the context of family-related, but it would be self interest, not family interest.
If she cared about her family, she would not be putting stress on her daughter to rush into a marriage, etc.. etc... and under the scrutiny of the press for the rest of their lives, without their consent..(no time for that)..
posted 1 year ago
@faisal - I REALLY hope that isn't true. I can't believe that she would leave after being "here" for only one week.
posted 1 year ago
The Sun asks "why can’t WE have a Sarah Palin?"
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/fergus_shanahan/article1647092.ece
posted 1 year ago
  21 thetexas
She is a great pick and motivated the base and won the election for McCain.
posted 1 year ago
  23 ruzel
Even some conservative pundits are now saying that, after the interviews, she should go away.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/kathleen-parker-after-int_n_129535.html
posted 1 year ago
  24 Erik
ruzel> I see only 1.
posted 1 year ago
  25 ruzel
@Erik
Your right, my link is to an article that is only citing only one conservative writer. However, I might point out that commentators Peggy Noonan and and Mike Murphy were caught on tape making disparaging remarks and claiming that she was a disastrous decision that potentially put the entire campaign at risk; Peggy Noonan went so far as to state "It's over." That is, obviously, not a statement regarding stepping down; however, such a statement really has to make you wonder what conservatives are saying behind closed doors.

I don't think Sarah Palin would ever decide to step down of her own accord--I don't think she knows the meaning of the word retreat. What I'm concerned with is could some group of conservatives mount a reasonable intervention? With what recently happened in the stock market, I would expect the Republicans to panic a little. "Suspending" the campaign seemed like panic to me. They might scramble enough to scrap their VP nomination and put someone else in. Don't you think there's a good argument for saying Romney or Carly Fiorina could handle this crisis?

At any rate, sorry for the inaccurate plural.
posted 1 year ago
  26 Erik
Ruzel>""Suspending" the campaign seemed like panic to me."
Please see my comment in http://www.hubdub.com/m17157/Will_the_ObamaMcCain_debate_happen_on_Friday_
It was a poker move, im my eyes...quite gutsy and it served it's purpose: to divert Obama's attention from his preperations for tonight's debate. Pretty slick for an old guy, I'd say.
posted 1 year ago
  27 randburg
Wow! Anybody watching the debate tonight..

On NBC, Joe Biden was invited to give his opinions as a reply for the Democrats. He did. Sarah Palin was invited to give her opinions of the debate for the Republicans. THE REPUBLICAN PARTY DECLINED ON HER BEHALF, and Rudi Giuliani gave a spirited appearance. Maybe Giuliani should have been the Republican VP choice...
posted 1 year ago
  28 dieseldog
randburg - why would palin go on NBC or MSNBC? their the most biased networks out there.
posted 1 year ago
  29 randburg
dieseldog - why NOT? Giuliani made a very good impression...And she wasn't going to be interviewed, only give her impressions of the debate...

Besides, if she is going to be Vice President of the United States -- and possibly President -- why does she have a "right" to be the only candidate that avoids interviews? Hopefully she will present herself well at the Vice Presidential debate. Martha Stewart must be working with her 24 hours a day now...
posted 1 year ago
  30 dieseldog
randburg - rudy ain't on the ticket so they couldn't ambush him. theres no law that says any canidate has to be interviewed. if that hurts them in the election then so be it. after the treatment she got from the MSM i wouldn't expose myself to the most biased network out there. i agree she has to be able to deal with the press to be a credible veep or prez. she don't have to talk to the national enquier to be credible. MSNBC removed 2 anchors for being biased already.
posted 1 year ago
  31 coolkraft
McCain desperately needs headlines....he could ask her to step down and replace her with Romney...
posted 1 year ago
  32 emmag
@dieseldog, Matthews and Olbermann weren't "removed" from MSNBC. They just won't be anchors for election coverage at the same time. You can still see them every night, and I thoroughly enjoyed their debate analysis last night.
posted 1 year ago
  33 destry[Admin]
Check out a new feature at google. http://labs.google.com/inquotes/
posted 1 year ago
  34 jsevigny
The woman is an idiot. She studied at such presigious learning institutions as Hawaii Pacific College, North Idaho College, and the University of Idaho. Yes, she transferred twice. But to be civil, she did win a scholarship for being "Miss Congeniality."
posted 1 year ago
@jsevigny Are you kidding me? A fan of Obama is making fun of someone for lacking time in something. Obama was in office for 6 MONTHS! Thats all! He doesnt know a thing about the political world except what he learned in 6 months. Thats like when your a kindergartener and you do 6 months of kindergarten does that mean your ready to teach college students? No. Its the same for Obama. He thinks that after 6 months this liberal fool is ready to run this country! Whereas McCain has had 30 years in congress. So lets see..... 6 months(Obama) or 30 years(McCain)? Tough choice!
posted 1 year ago
  36 ladylara
Not tough at all. Intelligent, calm, rational, focused, global.. Obama is the clear choice for people not afraid to move forward. I want my leader to be someone who's ready to be in charge, not a tired old horse who's been trudging behind the current stumblebumpkin "lead". And I would never accept a PTA mom's assuming she can assist OR be my school Superintendent just because she's been in the building and knows kids.. No touch choices here at all!
posted 1 year ago
Well lets adress these....... points one by one
1: "Obama is the clear choice for people not afraid to move forward. I want my leader to be someone who's ready to be in charge" I'm sorry however all you are going to get from a man who has never been tested, doesnt have any experience in politics, and entire knowledge of Presidential affairs was learned when running for president is inaction. Same thing we got from him in senate. Inaction. He is not ready to be in charge.
2: "I would never accept a PTA mom's assuming she can assist OR be my school Superintendent just because she's been in the building and knows kids" She has children therefore she has the knowledge of what every mother wants for there kids. She started small and she built her way up. She knows the trials of the average mother. And she knows how most government branches, from city council up, operate and what there abilitys are. in other words she is the "Vp of the people". Your right no tough choices at all! MCCAIN! MCCAIN!
posted 1 year ago
@dragon - I know its hard, but if you just try to take off your partisan hat for a second, can you see how those two arguments could be seen as contradictory?
1) Community involvement and state government don't count
2) Community involvement and state government are all that matters
posted 1 year ago
  39 ruzel
George Will has been quoted as saying that she "is obviously not qualified." I bet she steps down after the debate.
posted 1 year ago
Im not sure what you mean. To summarize my points for you i said that....
1: He isnt experienced and his breif history in politics was littered with inaction.
2: She is experienced and she is very active in politics
Not contradictory in the slightest.
posted 1 year ago
  42 emmag
@Dragon, I don't know where you are getting your "six months of experience" for Obama. But the truth is that Obama served for eight years in the Illinois State Senate and for two years in the U.S. Senate. That's TEN years in public office. You can find more information here:
http://www.obamapedia.org/page/Does+Barack+Obama+have+enough+experience+to+be+president%3F?t=anon
posted 1 year ago
  43 jsevigny
This is not to mention eight years teaching Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago.
posted 1 year ago
  45 scott
Troopergate report: Palin abused power

By DON HUNTER, SEAN COCKERHAM and WESLEY LOY
Anchorage Daily News

Published: October 10th, 2008 05:59 PM
Last Modified: October 10th, 2008 06:09 PM

A legislative investigation has concluded that Gov. Sarah Palin abused her power in pushing for the firing of an Alaska state trooper who was once married to her sister, or by failing to prevent her husband Todd from doing so.
posted 1 year ago
  46 dieseldog
so is she been charged yet? they got her in cuffs?
posted 1 year ago
  47 dieseldog
*has
posted 1 year ago
Friday, October 10, 2008

ARLINGTON, VA — McCain-Palin 2008 spokeswoman Meg Stapleton issued the following statement on today’s release of Stephen Branchflower’s report:

“Today’s report shows that the Governor acted within her proper and lawful authority in the reassignment of Walt Monegan. The report also illustrates what we’ve known all along: this was a partisan led inquiry run by Obama supporters and the Palins were completely justified in their concern regarding Trooper Wooten given his violent and rogue behavior. Lacking evidence to support the original Monegan allegation, the Legislative Council seriously overreached, making a tortured argument to find fault without basis in law or fact. The Governor is looking forward to cooperating with the Personnel Board and continuing her conversation with the American people regarding the important issues facing the country.”

http://gretawire.foxnews.com/2008/10/10/just-in-mccain-palin-statement/
posted 1 year ago
Governor’s Office Responds to Branchflower Report

October 10, 2008, Anchorage, Alaska – Governor Sarah Palin’s communications director Bill McAllister released the following statement on the report issued today from Steve Branchflower:

“The so-called ‘Troopergate’ incident began with Governor Palin’s removal of Walt Monegan as commissioner of public safety. Today, investigator Steve Branchflower vindicated the governor by finding that she acted within her constitutional authority to remove ‘at-will’ employees.

“However, along with several members of the Legislative Council, we question how Mr. Branchflower reached the conclusion that Governor Palin abused her power with respect to Trooper Mike Wooten. That finding required speculation and assumptions on Mr. Branchflower’s part and could not be supported solely on the basis of the evidence that he collected. We agree with the comments made that Alaskans should consider the report in total rather than relying solely on the findings.”

The Office of the Governor has released the depositions of the seven state employees named in the investigation, which include their testimony regarding internal administration discussions about Mike Wooten. The documents can be accessed at the following links:

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/Affidavit_Randy_Ruaro.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/BaileyTranscript_8-27-08.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/BradThompsonAnswers_Signed.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/CommissionerKreitzerAnswers_Signed.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/DianneKieselAnswers_Signed.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/JaniceMasonAnswers_signed.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/Letter_SenateJudiciary_10-08-2008.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/Email_January-29-30-2008.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/Email_March-2-2008.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/Email_October-18-2007.pdf

http://www.gov.state.ak.us/pdf/IvySubpoenaResponses.pdf
posted 1 year ago
  50 dieseldog
ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Sarah Palin "abused her power" as governor in the disciplinary case against a state trooper, according to a legislative panel's report released Friday, though it also found that her firing of a state commissioner was "proper and lawful."

The nearly 300-page report does not recommend sanctions or a criminal investigation.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/10/panel-palin-abused-power-firing-commissioner/
posted 1 year ago

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