Created Sun 31st Aug 9:57am PDT by gregmatta

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NCAAF - How many of the top 25 AP Teams will not be in the top 25 on September 1, 2008?

This question was created after most games had been played, thus the outcomes do not seem to match the starting percentages:
3 of the top 25 teams lost (#9, #17, #25). It would be rare for a #9 team to drop completely out of the top 25 (with a loss to another ranked team in their home state during their opening game), while #25 dropping out seems obvious, so the percentages seem like they should be 80-90% in favor of either 1 or 2).

I think this would be a great question for the start of the week, but not after games are played.

Background:

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

NCAAF - How many of the top 25 AP Teams will not be in the top 25 on September 1, 2008?

    Zero

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5 or more

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Forecast history, %

   Zoom in

Voided

	Zero	10%
	1	25%
	2	25%
	3	25%
	4	10%
	5 or more	5%

Voided Sun 31st Aug 8:12pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 3:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Zero: 10%, 1: 25%, 2: 25%, 3: 25%, 4: 10%, 5 or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 31st Aug 9:57am PDT by gregmatta

Voided Sun 31st Aug 8:12pm PDT by mrperfkt: This question was created after most games had been played, thus the outcomes do not seem to match the starting percentages:
3 of the top 25 teams lost (#9, #17, #25). It would be rare for a #9 team to drop completely out of the top 25 (with a loss to another ranked team in their home state during their opening game), while #25 dropping out seems obvious, so the percentages seem like they should be 80-90% in favor of either 1 or 2).

I think this would be a great question for the start of the week, but not after games are played.

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Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 3:59am PDT
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Predictions (26)

26 predictions

13 weeks ago

mrperfkt predicted 1 (H$750 at 28%)

13 weeks ago

infernalmachine predicted 3 (H$100 at 27%)

13 weeks ago

ihydsqrl predicted 2 (H$50 at 25%)

13 weeks ago

chull predicted 1 (H$100 at 27%)

13 weeks ago

akashkreddy predicted 3 (H$50 at 23%)

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13 weeks ago

mrperfkt predicted 1 (H$750 at 28%)

13 weeks ago

infernalmachine predicted 3 (H$100 at 27%)

13 weeks ago

ihydsqrl predicted 2 (H$50 at 25%)

13 weeks ago

chull predicted 1 (H$100 at 27%)

13 weeks ago

akashkreddy predicted 3 (H$50 at 23%)

13 weeks ago

kennyk predicted 1 (H$200 at 25%)

13 weeks ago

kennyk predicted Zero (H$200 at 10%)

13 weeks ago

kennyk predicted 4 (H$200 at 12%)

13 weeks ago

rbrog77 predicted 3 (H$20 at 26%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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Comments (1)

  1 cognos

This WOULD be a fantastic weekly market!

posted 13 weeks ago

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