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How many category 1-5 hurricanes will hit Florida?

Current forecast: More than 6, or NONE (81% chance4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is More than 6, or NONE with a probability of 81% (down 4% in last 1 day)

Hurricanes have to be category 1-5 when they make landfall.

Category Editor Clarification
The options have been edited to allow for no overlap. All predictions on this market up to the point of being suspended were for options 1 or 2, or 3 or 4, so changing the last two options had no impact on any wagers already placed on market. Last option was changed to include a NONE option. This market is now being reopened and should be able to continue running.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

1 or 2
7%
3 or 4
7%
5 or 6
5%
More than 6, or NONE
81%
Activity: H$11,692
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 9:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: 1 or 2: 25%, 3 or 4: 25%, 5 or 6: 25%, More than 6, or NONE: 25%

Action history:

Created Sun 31st Aug 5:59pm PDT by 101airborne
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 10:13am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Outcomes are not mutually exclusive.

Depending on how this might be edited, the odds for outcomes may be off.

Does this need an outcome for "none"? (I can't keep all the hurricanes straight ;-)
Unsuspended Mon 1st Sep 2pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Options have been edited. Market unsuspended.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 9:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (35)

35 predictions

1 day ago
bruns_david predicted More than 6, or NONE (H$250 at 81%)
6 days ago
onedave[Power User] predicted More than 6, or NONE (H$20 at 80%)
1 week ago
lcsnor predicted More than 6, or NONE (H$20 at 80%)
1 week ago
bruns_david predicted More than 6, or NONE (H$50 at 80%)
1 week ago
onedave[Power User] predicted More than 6, or NONE (H$20 at 87%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 dieseldog
@101airborne...thanks for your service to the USA, and welcome to hubdub. i have a feeling you will soon meet the admin or a superuser.
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Welcome to Hubdub 101airborne. Good job on creating your first market. If you ever have any questions feel free to email any of the admins or superusers you see on the site.
posted 13 weeks ago
Thank you guys... and I hope you mean that I will meet the admin/superuser in a good way...
posted 13 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
Just remember that most times of the day or night there is an admin or superuser on the site, you can go to the about screen and click on hubdub team, that will show you all the admins, feel free to add us as friends, or send us emails.
posted 13 weeks ago
@ 101airborne -- dieseldog's "feeling" about "meeting a super user" was accurate ;-)

I suspended your question as the 2d and 3rd outcome options overlap -- that is, they both would settle as "yes" if the correct prediction was "4".

Many times corrections to the options can simply be made by a category editor -- however, if the duplicate #4 was just removed from the third option ("4-5"), then the resulting likelihood for the single result of "5" might not be accurate.

I confess, with so many hurricane stories, I don't know if a category 1-5 hurricane has hit Florida during 2008. If not, then this question would also need a "None" option -- otherwise it would be voided at settlement time if there weren't any category 1-5 hurricanes that hit Florida during 2008.

Let the category editor know what you would like to do, by sending a message via the "Flag for review" link, and/or, if you have questions about either editing or rewriting your question, feel free to post your questions here in the comment thread, and other users (super, terrific, outstanding ;-) will be happy to assist. (You can only use the "Flag for review" link once per question.)

Welcome to Hubdub!
posted 13 weeks ago
  6 destry[Admin]
The market has been clarified. Options have been edited. It was possible to edit options because there were no wagers on the final two options at the time of market suspension. So no wagers were effected.
posted 13 weeks ago
Ah, this is tougher than it looks! Sorry about that. I will learn more before I post a new question.... And I thought I had all my bases covered with this one. Thank you for helping out!
posted 13 weeks ago
  8 dieseldog
@ 101airborne..no need to aplogise. i'm not the best question maker and i'm sure as you use the site more you will surpass me. i'm glad you got newswrangler to help explain things to you. you'll also come to see-find out newswrang is a fine superuser and all around good person. i don't always agree with him, but he's very consistent and you don't need a lawyer and 4 sciencetist to figure out where he stands, or how he'll judge a question. happy HDing and good luck.
posted 13 weeks ago

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