Created Sun 31st Aug 5:59pm PDT by
101airborne
All questions » General » Weather » 
How many category 1-5 hurricanes will hit Florida?
Current forecast: More than 6, or NONE (81% chance
4%)
4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is More than 6, or NONE with a probability of 81% (down 4% in last 1 day)
Hurricanes have to be category 1-5 when they make landfall.
Category Editor Clarification
The options have been edited to allow for no overlap. All predictions on this market up to the point of being suspended were for options 1 or 2, or 3 or 4, so changing the last two options had no impact on any wagers already placed on market. Last option was changed to include a NONE option. This market is now being reopened and should be able to continue running.
Category Editor Clarification
The options have been edited to allow for no overlap. All predictions on this market up to the point of being suspended were for options 1 or 2, or 3 or 4, so changing the last two options had no impact on any wagers already placed on market. Last option was changed to include a NONE option. This market is now being reopened and should be able to continue running.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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1 or 2 |
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3 or 4 |
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5 or 6 |
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More than 6, or NONE |
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Activity: H$11,692
Question suspends in 4 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 9:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: 1 or 2: 25%, 3 or 4: 25%, 5 or 6: 25%, More than 6, or NONE: 25%
Action history:
Created Sun 31st Aug 5:59pm PDT by
101airborne
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 10:13am PDT by
newswrangler
: Flagged by super user: Outcomes are not mutually exclusive.
Depending on how this might be edited, the odds for outcomes may be off.
Does this need an outcome for "none"? (I can't keep all the hurricanes straight ;-)
Depending on how this might be edited, the odds for outcomes may be off.
Does this need an outcome for "none"? (I can't keep all the hurricanes straight ;-)
Unsuspended Mon 1st Sep 2pm PDT by
destry
: Options have been edited. Market unsuspended.
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 9:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...
Predictions (35)
35 predictions
Comments (8)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
CBS News 1 day ago
for special reports ... and for storms to make landfall. They were tracking it on NOAA and the National Weather Service and looking for highway closures. [They were] being proactive
score: 10
CBS News 1 day ago
for special reports ... and for storms to make landfall. They were tracking it on NOAA and the National Weather Service and looking for highway closures. [They were] being proactive
score: 10
The Scotsman 2 days ago
in the Southern Uplands last night. The below-average temperatures have led bookmakers to brace themselves for their biggest-ever white Christmas pay-out. The odds of snow on Christmas Day in Glasgow have now dropped to 3/1 from 8/1. The city experienced
score: 10
Los Angeles Times 4 days ago
seemed to strike the United States and Cuba as if on redial, setting at least five weather records for persistence and repeatedly striking the same areas. 'It was pretty relentless in a large number of big strikes,' said Georgia Tech atmospheric sciences
score: 10
Time 5 days ago
ends Sunday, seemed to strike the United States and Cuba as if on redial, setting at least five weather records for persistence and repeatedly striking the same areas. 'It was pretty relentless in a large number of big strikes,' said Georgia Tech




I suspended your question as the 2d and 3rd outcome options overlap -- that is, they both would settle as "yes" if the correct prediction was "4".
Many times corrections to the options can simply be made by a category editor -- however, if the duplicate #4 was just removed from the third option ("4-5"), then the resulting likelihood for the single result of "5" might not be accurate.
I confess, with so many hurricane stories, I don't know if a category 1-5 hurricane has hit Florida during 2008. If not, then this question would also need a "None" option -- otherwise it would be voided at settlement time if there weren't any category 1-5 hurricanes that hit Florida during 2008.
Let the category editor know what you would like to do, by sending a message via the "Flag for review" link, and/or, if you have questions about either editing or rewriting your question, feel free to post your questions here in the comment thread, and other users (super, terrific, outstanding ;-) will be happy to assist. (You can only use the "Flag for review" link once per question.)
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