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Will any commercial ship attempt the Arctic's North-East passage before September '09?

Current forecast: 36% chance 4%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 36% likely to happen (down 4% in last 1 day)

A Bremen based shipping company, Beluga Group, says in 2009 they will be the first to utilize the recently thawed North-East passage North of Russia.

2008 will allegedly be the first year of the North Pole's circum-navigability

Related Article:
http://shrunklink.com/ayry


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
36%
No
64%
Activity: H$44,887
Question suspends in 38 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 2nd Sep 2009 12:59am PDT (38 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 12:10am PDT by mork[Power User]

Suspend date: Wed 2nd Sep 2009 12:59am PDT (38 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (64)

64 predictions

11 hours ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$2,000 at 62%)
3 days ago
horsefeathers predicted Yes (H$20 at 40%)
1 week ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$2,000 at 58%)
1 week ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$3,000 at 53%)
3 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted Yes (H$20 at 56%)
more

Comments (2)

Does seem like a risk.
posted 12 weeks ago

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