
How will Amy Winehouse die?
Market will be reposted with additional background and tighter settlement details
Background:>
Settlement details:
As reported by ITN and/or BBC News.
Voided
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Drug Overdose |
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Car Crash |
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Heart Attack |
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Illness/Cancer |
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Murder |
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Natural Causes |
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Alcohol Poisoning |
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Other |
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Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 4pm PST (1 year to go)
Initial likelihoods: Drug Overdose: 49%, Car Crash: 17%, Heart Attack: 15%, Illness/Cancer: 11%, Murder: 4%, Natural Causes: 2%, Alcohol Poisoning: 1%, Other: 1%
Action history:
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 4pm PST (1 year to go)
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Predictions (3)
3 predictions
Comments (10)
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As far as legitmacy goes, why for instance, would 4% be the starting odds for "murder", and only 1% for "poisoning"? Who really knows how to determine the "likely" starting odds for a "car crash" as opposed to a "drug overdose"? Would "poisoning" also fall under the "murder" category?
Starting odds for "other" is a paltry 1%. I don't think so. So, once again, we will let the Category Administrator make the call.
In this case: Does the market comply with the rules for market creation?
2.2.5 Types of question
"If the question is potentially contentious (e.g. about loss of life) then it must be in the context of a mainstream news story."
2.2.10 Creating Questions
"Any offensive questions or comments will be voided or deleted. (...)"
And even further: Does it comply with these "Terms of use"?
"(...) you agree not to use the Services: (...) to post or transmit, or cause to be posted or transmitted, any Content that is infringing, libelous, defamatory, abusive, offensive, obscene, pornographic or otherwise violates any law or right of any third party (...)"
There is no "official" rule for "Death Pools" (AFAIK). It's a matter of taste. Is it tasteless to ask this question? I defended so-called "Death Pools" in other situations - but, well, I personally think so it is beyond the border here.
But HUBDUB-markets are never "polls" (I hope so, at least).
:-(
Unlike others who might be considered for a question such as this, she really seems to be the ideal candidate . . . her lifestyle is so self-destructive, it's probably only a matter of when, where, and how!
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