Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
My Predictions

How will Amy Winehouse die?

Voided

Market will be reposted with additional background and tighter settlement details

Background:

She's going to someday, but how?


Settlement details: As reported by ITN and/or BBC News.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Drug Overdose
49%
Car Crash
17%
Heart Attack
15%
Illness/Cancer
11%
Murder
4%
Natural Causes
2%
Alcohol Poisoning
1%
Other
1%
Voided Tue 2nd Sep 10:57am PDT

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 4pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Drug Overdose: 49%, Car Crash: 17%, Heart Attack: 15%, Illness/Cancer: 11%, Murder: 4%, Natural Causes: 2%, Alcohol Poisoning: 1%, Other: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 10:45am PDT by mrxxx2012
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 4:34pm PDT by cognos[Power User]: Flagged by super user: I'm going to flag this market temporarily, so that the Category Editors can decide on the "Death Pool" issue.
Voided Tue 2nd Sep 10:57am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Market will be reposted with additional background and tighter settlement details

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 4pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (3)

3 predictions

13 weeks ago
marzbarz2628 predicted Drug Overdose (H$100 at 41%)

Comments (10)

  1 cognos[Power User]
I'm going to flag this market temporarily, so that the Category Editors can decide on the "Death Pool" issue.
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 geoff
This is a legit poll.
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 cognos[Power User]
Legitmate or otherwise, All "Death Pool" type questions must be approved by an Adminstrator.
As far as legitmacy goes, why for instance, would 4% be the starting odds for "murder", and only 1% for "poisoning"? Who really knows how to determine the "likely" starting odds for a "car crash" as opposed to a "drug overdose"? Would "poisoning" also fall under the "murder" category?

Starting odds for "other" is a paltry 1%. I don't think so. So, once again, we will let the Category Administrator make the call.
posted 13 weeks ago
  4 dieseldog
@congos..again not doubting your wisdom of the rules. you being a SU have more "inside info" than i do. the death pool debate was going on when i joined. i'm not aware of any rule that says an admin has to approve them. did i miss it when reading the rules page? is it an unwritten rule? just trying to clarify so all HD'rs know what the "offical" rule is.
posted 13 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
To be correct: any market is to be approved by the an administrator.

In this case: Does the market comply with the rules for market creation?

2.2.5 Types of question
"If the question is potentially contentious (e.g. about loss of life) then it must be in the context of a mainstream news story."
2.2.10 Creating Questions
"Any offensive questions or comments will be voided or deleted. (...)"

And even further: Does it comply with these "Terms of use"?
"(...) you agree not to use the Services: (...) to post or transmit, or cause to be posted or transmitted, any Content that is infringing, libelous, defamatory, abusive, offensive, obscene, pornographic or otherwise violates any law or right of any third party (...)"

There is no "official" rule for "Death Pools" (AFAIK). It's a matter of taste. Is it tasteless to ask this question? I defended so-called "Death Pools" in other situations - but, well, I personally think so it is beyond the border here.

But HUBDUB-markets are never "polls" (I hope so, at least).
posted 13 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
It was not easy to find an appealing photo of her, btw

:-(
posted 13 weeks ago
  7 bayoubear[Admin]
Tough call on this one...she seems to have a death wish, so perhaps it is worthy of discussion as to how this will happen....

Unlike others who might be considered for a question such as this, she really seems to be the ideal candidate . . . her lifestyle is so self-destructive, it's probably only a matter of when, where, and how!
posted 13 weeks ago
  8 randburg
Wow! When I saw this was suspended, I thought it might be for settlement...But then she would have missed the London Fashion Week Ramp....
posted 13 weeks ago
  9 geoff
I do hope this gets re-posted with better settlement details.
posted 12 weeks ago
I haven't heard back from the author yet. I'll try to repost this weekend if he isn't interested in doing it.
posted 12 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more