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Where will oil go next?

Settled as 105.99-

Settled as "105.99" which means any price during a trading period that is equal to or below 105.99. Price on Friday dropped to 105.60 before closing at 106.23.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL

Background:

Oil has been very flatulent lately. The Russian bombing of a oil pipeline funneling millions of drums of oil to the world had a lot of oil analysts running scared. Not to mention Russia itself is a large manufacterer of oil and the US government is not very happy with it at the moment. It seems like prices are in a good position position to go up. Yet due to the high price of oil people all over are finding new ways to curb there oil usage. From magnets that supposedly make your gas last longer, to adding stuff to the oil to make it burn cleaner and slower people are trying everything to use less gas. This in mind, big oil companies like Chevron and Exxonmobile are competing by lowering prices to get your money first. Simple economics show that less demand=lower prices. However it also shows that less supply=Higher prices. Where the price of oil will go next is anybodies guess. Prices based on the reporting on Monday


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. based on NYMEX price for October delivery light, sweet crude.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

125+
14%
120-124.99
22%
stay between 111-119.99
24%
106-110.99
22%
105.99-
18%
Activity: H$1,789
Settled as 105.99- on Sat 6th Sep 3:06am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 29th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 6th Sep 3:06am PDT

Initial likelihoods: 125+: 15%, 120-124.99: 25%, stay between 111-119.99: 20%, 106-110.99: 25%, 105.99-: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 12:16pm PDT by dragonfangxl
Suspended Sat 6th Sep 2:58am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Previous version of this question referred to the price of oil on the suspension date. This version did not mention that, so would refer to the oil price at anytime prior to that date. Taking a look to see if that has happened already.
Settled as '105.99-' Sat 6th Sep 3:06am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Settled as "105.99" which means any price during a trading period that is equal to or below 105.99. Price on Friday dropped to 105.60 before closing at 106.23.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=CL

Suspend date: Mon 29th Sep 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 6th Sep 3:06am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (17)

17 predictions

12 weeks ago
jakethesnake predicted 106-110.99 (H$100 at 21%)
12 weeks ago
iksor predicted 105.99- (H$20 at 18%)
12 weeks ago
void predicted 105.99- (H$50 at 18%)
12 weeks ago
bods predicted 105.99- (H$100 at 18%)
13 weeks ago
glcooper predicted stay between 111-119.99 (H$20 at 25%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 tisha[Admin]
I always lose money on these questions! Oil is just too slippery for me ...
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 bobdevine
"Oil has been very flatulent lately"

:-)
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 bods
This question must be settled as oil already has gone below 105.99
posted 12 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
This question has been settled because the price of oil dropped below 105.99 during trading on Friday. The previous version of the question had stated that it would be settled as of the price on the last trading day of the month. But this version made no mention of that as a settlement basis, so it would imply that all oil had to do was drop below the lowest figure or rise above the highest to force a settlement.
posted 12 weeks ago
  5 bayoubear[Admin]
And thanks to our new member bods for bringing it to my attention...we all need help from throughout the community....
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 tisha[Admin]
So yes - I lose another prediction on oil here. Here's a tip for y'all - pick whatever option I don't pick!
posted 12 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
i lost money and have no problem with it being settled. i bet thinking suspend date was settlement date. as the admin said that wasn't "specifically" stated. hopefully in the future i'll read more carefully and the details will be more specific on when it will settle.
posted 12 weeks ago
  8 bayoubear[Admin]
Sorry dieseldog.....I'd operated under the same assumption since the previous question, which was stated the same, had the qualifier referring to the closing price at the end of the month....didn't realize that the author had left that out this time....so it was settled correctly....next time I'll try to catch it earlier, or help rephrase the question and background to settle more clearly.....
posted 12 weeks ago
I clearly said at the end of my background that the prices i used were the ones reported on monday........
posted 12 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
@dragon...where i got confused was which monday you was referring to. the suspend time has mon sept 29.
posted 12 weeks ago
  11 bayoubear[Admin]
I also see the statement now, but the background doesn't indicate which Monday and the settlement dates and details aren't prominently displayed.

Rather than reopening, I may have to void this question...too many wagerers may have also been confused about the settlement details.

All questions need to be clearly written and information about settlement conditions (including suspension dates as well as the date the settlement is based on) need to be prominently displayed either in the question itself, or at the top of the background information. Wagerers shouldn't have to search to get an understanding of the question.
posted 12 weeks ago

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