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In what month will Bristol Palin give birth to a child?

Current forecast: December 08 (71% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is December 08 with a probability of 71% (down 1% in last 1 day)

McCain officials said the news of the daughter's pregnancy was being released to rebut what one aide called "mud-slinging and lies" that have circulated on liberal blog sites.

According to these rumors, Sarah Palin had faked a pregnancy and pretended to have given birth in April to her fifth child, a son named Trig who has Down syndrome. The rumor was that Trig was actually Bristol Palin's child and that Sarah Palin was the grandmother.

Category Editor Clarification
In the unlikely event that Bristol miscarries or another event that doesn't allow market to be settled, the market will be voided.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

September 08
1%
October 08
2%
November 08
3%
December 08
71%
January 09
14%
February 09
2%
March 09 (or after)
7%
Activity: H$38,140
Question suspends in 12 weeks

Suspend date: Sat 28th Feb 2009 3:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: September 08: 5%, October 08: 5%, November 08: 5%, December 08: 5%, January 09: 5%, February 09: 20%, March 09 (or after): 55%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 1:11pm PDT by julieliu1

Suspend date: Sat 28th Feb 2009 3:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (104)

104 predictions

5 hours ago
brewtus predicted January 09 (H$20 at 14%)
10 hours ago
hairydoginparis predicted January 09 (H$50 at 13%)
10 hours ago
hairydoginparis predicted December 08 (H$100 at 72%)
1 week ago
bigken1 predicted January 09 (H$200 at 14%)
3 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted December 08 (H$1,000 at 57%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 shojun
She's 5 months pregnant according to the Press release. So we'll see...
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 shojun
What happens in the event of a) miscarriage (heaven forbid) or b) twins - born on say, Dec 31st and Jan 1st? :) I'm not picking either, just asking for clarification.
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 paulcroft
Wow...no money to be made on Dec...but Nov or Jan payoff big time ...I am hoping for an early or late baby!
posted 13 weeks ago
  4 veritas
If the rumors are true about Trig, then she is not really pregnant and she will have an unfortunate miscarriage sometime before the election in order to increase the sympathy factor.
posted 13 weeks ago
"Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee who revealed Monday that her 17-year-old daughter is pregnant, earlier this year used her line-item veto to slash funding for a state program benefiting teen mothers in need of a place to live.

"Earlier today the Associated Press reported that Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, opposed funding to prevent teen pregnancies, a position that Palin also took as governor. "The explicit sex-ed programs will not find my support," she wrote in a 2006 questionnaire distributed among gubernatorial candidates."

<http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/02/palin_slashed_funding_to_help.html?hpid=artslot>
.
posted 13 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
what happen to the creator julieliu1? either account deleted or they was kicked out? the name ain't active..ie nothing happens if you click on it.
posted 13 weeks ago
  7 shojun
Odd. You can still get to http://www.hubdub.com/users/julieliu1 though...
posted 12 weeks ago
  8 bigken1
I am just a regular user.. what about asking admin? Is this a problem?, and if so, what is it?
posted 12 weeks ago
  9 bigken1
maybe julieliu is sarah palin, or her daughter...., and they know the answer...
posted 10 weeks ago

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