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When will Kay Bailey Hutchison announce that she is running for TX Governor in 2010?

Current forecast: Between Jan. 1, 2009 and March 31, 2009 (22% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Between Jan. 1, 2009 and March 31, 2009 with a probability of 22% (unchanged in last 1 day)

She has hinted at it for months, but has not come right out and said she is running. When asked this month if she was running, she simply said, "Stay tuned." So it's likely she will. Now it's a matter of when she will make the announcement, if at all.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Before Dec 31, 2008
18%
Between Jan. 1, 2009 and March 31, 2009
22%
Between April 1, 2009 and June 30, 2009
18%
Between July 1, 2009 and Sept. 30, 2009
16%
Between Oct. 1, 2009 and Dec. 31, 2009
11%
After Dec. 31, 2009
10%
She will not run for TX Governor
5%
Activity: H$924
Question suspends in 51 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before Dec 31, 2008: 18%, Between Jan. 1, 2009 and March 31, 2009: 21%, Between April 1, 2009 and June 30, 2009: 18%, Between July 1, 2009 and Sept. 30, 2009: 13%, Between Oct. 1, 2009 and Dec. 31, 2009: 13%, After Dec. 31, 2009: 12%, She will not run for TX Governor: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 2:40pm PDT by davidpepe

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (51 weeks to go)
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Predictions (11)

11 predictions

6 weeks ago
friggincoolboy predicted Between April 1, 2009 and June 30, 2009 (H$100 at 17%)
6 weeks ago
friggincoolboy predicted Before Dec 31, 2008 (H$100 at 18%)
6 weeks ago
friggincoolboy predicted Between Jan. 1, 2009 and March 31, 2009 (H$100 at 23%)
7 weeks ago
davidpepe predicted Between July 1, 2009 and Sept. 30, 2009 (H$150 at 14%)
12 weeks ago
davidpepe predicted Between Jan. 1, 2009 and March 31, 2009 (H$50 at 22%)
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