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In what place by market share will Google's new browser Chrome be for Aug 09?

Settled as Fourth

Background: Google has announced they are releasing their new open-source browser (beta-version) Sept 2, 2008. Washington Post article

Currently (August 2008) the market share for browsers is : MS IE (72.15%), Firefox (19.73%), Safari (6.37%), Opera (0.74%), Mozilla (0.10%) and other assorted browsers (0.17%). http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=0

Is Chrome the IE beater? Will it shame Firefox? What position in market share (high to low) will the Chrome browser have a year from launch? [using figures from http://marketshare.hitslink.com]

This will settle based on the August 2009 figures released on Sept 1 2009.

Settlement details:As reported by http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=0 for August 2009 on Sept 1, 2009.

 
Forecast history %
First (better than even IE)
2%
Second
0%
Third
2%
Fourth
95%
Fifth
0%
Sixth
0%
Seventh or lower OR not available OR tied
0%
Settled as Fourth on Tue 8th Sep 4:36am PST

Suspend date: Tue 25th Aug 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 8th Sep 4:36am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 25th Aug 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: First (better than even IE): 1%, Second: 7%, Third: 13%, Fourth: 21%, Fifth: 24%, Sixth: 19%, Seventh or lower OR not available OR tied: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 2008 3:04pm PST by infernalmachine[Power User]
Suspended Tue 25th Aug 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 7th Sep 12:43pm PST by richardellis: http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=0
Settlement requested Mon 7th Sep 4:53pm PST by bipedprimate: Stats for Sept 1. have been posted, and Chrome was in 4th place. Settled.
Settled as 'Fourth' Tue 8th Sep 4:36am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 25th Aug 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 8th Sep 4:36am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 25th Aug 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (603)

12 weeks ago
screenager predicted Fourth (H$47 at 95%)
12 weeks ago
charlesf predicted Fourth (H$900 at 95%)
12 weeks ago
charlesf predicted Third (H$20 at 2%)
12 weeks ago
charlesf predicted Fifth (H$20 at 0%)
12 weeks ago
charlesf predicted Sixth (H$5 at 0%)

Comments (22)

http://books.google.com/books?id=8UsqHohwwVYC&printsec=frontcover#PPA1,M1

This is the comic that introduced Chrome.
posted 1 year ago
  2 scott
I just downloaded it. It kicks IE and FF's ass. And it's Beta. WOW.

http://www.shoutwire.com/comments/190368/Google_Chrome_Download_Link.html
posted 1 year ago
  3 greggles
45% chance in first place ahead of IE?!?!

Hubdub is clearly showing a "tech-early-adopter" bias.

/me makes more purchases of the rest of the contracts =D
posted 1 year ago
  4 destry[Admin]
I gotta say that so far chrome is fast and easy.
posted 1 year ago
  5 scott
It looks better than IE and FF. It's faster. It imported everything without a single problem and I like it better. Why not better than IE - I've already just dumped FF.
posted 1 year ago
  6 scott
It's fast and easy and if one of the tabs crashes it just crashes that one tab... not all of em.
posted 1 year ago
  7 scott
When I hit a new link I've never seen a browser open faster. Amazing speed.
posted 1 year ago
  8 destry[Admin]
Did you notice that the default search engine is culi and not Google.
posted 1 year ago
  9 gadget666
I really cannot see any browser overtaking internet explorer, given that many people are not even aware that they have a choice. it toom me a good ten minutes to convince my father that there was actually another browser out there other than internet explorer, he thought it was like windows explorer and could not be supplanted.
posted 1 year ago
  10 cognos
They claim that apps can be written, taking advantage of some communication between tabs (frames, in a previous incarnation).
In a W3C ( http://www.w3c.org ) compliant browser, sibling frames could not communicate with each other, unless the parent window.document specifically allows access to it's functions. This could still be a mess in disquise. I'm going to hang low and test against some hefty javascript. I'll let you know what I find, if anything, interesting.
posted 1 year ago
  11 cognos
Well, in just a few minutes, using different, but standard display settings, here some initial findings ...

Google's Chrome may sound sexy, but ...
The current rendering engine is not compliant with w3c specification. (Easy javascript image manipulation is not even close).
The CSS style "position:absolute" is totally helpless. Once again, it does comply, and therefore, many new sites don't look so good anymore.
For some reason, getting a 'handle' on document objects does not seem as clean as it should.

However, and this may blow you away, but more than likely not ...


I ran the same test on MSIE 8 beta, and the results, while similar in nature, were not as profound.

Note: The series of tests were passed on MSIE 7, and the latest versions of Flock, Mozilla, Netscape, Opera, Safari, and 4 other browsers.

So, the waiting game begins.
;)
posted 1 year ago
I'm visiting this page on chrome! Within 5 minutes of downloading it i decided that i no longer needed Mozzila so i uninstalled it. However there have been a few bugs with my email since i used it. I think that its a tie between IE and Chrome. Not to mention the glitches it has with clicking. Still its only a beta
posted 1 year ago
  14 pembeci
Be careful about the privacy if you are going to use it:

http://news.google.com.tr/news?as_q=chrome+privacy&svnum=10&as_scoring=r&as_drrb=b&as_mind=3&as_minm=9&as_maxd=4&as_maxm=9&as_occt=any&aq=f

By default, it sends a lot of information back to Google about your browsing habits.
posted 1 year ago
  15 faisal
Google Analytics is saying 2% so far, putting it in 4th. That seems like a biased sample, though:

http://www.betanews.com/article/Google_Analytics_starts_tracking_Chrome_with_intriguing_results/1220642170
posted 1 year ago
  16 daddeoh
I don't think it will overtake IE because of the majority who just use what they are given. So the real question is: will it overtake Firefox to become second? I use Chrome all the time now I think it's cleaner and faster than Firefox so on today's evidence I would expect it to go second. But Firefox may improve before Aug and a privacy scare with Chrome would dent its chances. Who knows?
posted 49 weeks ago
  17 ironman288
I really like chrome but am waiting for it to leave beta. I'm still using Firefox 2, and quite content until i hear chrome is out of Beta testing (I've been burned as an early adopter before... vista <_<).
posted 49 weeks ago
  18 rogerkni
Net Applications' December 2008 Web Browser Stats:

Microsoft Internet Explorer: 68.15% (vs. MAY 2006: 84.20%)
Mozilla Firefox: 21.34% (vs. MAY 2006: 10.55%)
Apple Safari: 7.93% (vs. MAY 2006: 3.26%)
Google Chrome: 1.04%
Opera: 0.71%
posted 46 weeks ago
  19 gobbergo
Man, I really thought Google was going to roll out some deal with a PC maker to have it preinstalled on new machines by now. Bet Third thinking a few months of PC sales would get it above 7%. Le sigh.
posted 33 weeks ago
  20 greggles
@gobbergo - be sure to see a question on that exact topic - http://www.hubdub.com/m23134/Will_Googles_Chrome_Browser_come_preinstalled_on_a_PC_by_June_30th_2009

If Google doesn't get it on a PC and shipping by June...there's little chance for a third place finish (I too had a lot of early bets on third place...being the web's most popular site does give them the ability to attract a lot of new users!)
posted 32 weeks ago
  21 greggles
Hitslink changed the way they calculate these shares, which makes safari look worse and chrome much better!

However, it seems crazy to me that Chrome can narrow a gap of over 1% in the next month when they barely did 3% points over the last year.
posted 15 weeks ago
  22 greggles
Alrighty - time to settle.

Microsoft Internet Explorer 66.97%
Firefox 22.98%
Safari 4.07%
Chrome 2.84%
Opera 2.04%
Netscape 0.49%
posted 11 weeks ago

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