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Created Mon 1st Sep 4:45pm PDT by triathematician
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

What will be the number of undecideds/other in Monday's Gallup presidential poll?

Settled as Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7

100-(49+44)=7
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/Gallup-Daily-McCains-Bounce-Gives-Him-5Point-Lead.aspx

Background:

The market will settle based on the total polling points not allocated to either Obama or McCain. This number dropped to 8 on September 1, after the Democratic convention and McCain's VP pick. Will it move back up to 10 or so (where it was for most of the summer), or will it stay put around 8?

Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Monday will be based on surveys taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


Settlement details: As reported by http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx,
posted near 1300 on Monday September 8.
If no poll is posted that day for some reason, will be the next released gallup daily poll.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Number of undecideds/others is 5 or less
9%
Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7
34%
Number of undecideds/others is 8 or 9
25%
Number of undecideds/others is 10 or 11
23%
Number of undecideds/others is 12 or more
9%
Activity: H$9,723
Settled as Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7 on Mon 8th Sep 9:30pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 8th Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 9:30pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 8th Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Number of undecideds/others is 5 or less: 5%, Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7: 25%, Number of undecideds/others is 8 or 9: 40%, Number of undecideds/others is 10 or 11: 25%, Number of undecideds/others is 12 or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 4:45pm PDT by triathematician
Suspended Mon 8th Sep 9:30am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 8th Sep 1:53pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: 100-(49+44)=7
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/Gallup-Daily-McCains-Bounce-Gives-Him-5Point-Lead.aspx
Settled as 'Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7' Mon 8th Sep 9:30pm PDT by destry[Admin]: 100-(49+44)=7
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/Gallup-Daily-McCains-Bounce-Gives-Him-5Point-Lead.aspx

Suspend date: Mon 8th Sep 9:30am PDT Settlement date: Mon 8th Sep 9:30pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 8th Sep 9:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (64)

64 predictions

12 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7 (H$5 at 34%)
12 weeks ago
rogi predicted Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7 (H$20 at 34%)
12 weeks ago
bulog predicted Number of undecideds/others is 12 or more (H$100 at 8%)
12 weeks ago
polishburnt predicted Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7 (H$20 at 34%)
12 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted Number of undecideds/others is 6 or 7 (H$25 at 34%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 randburg
At the end of this week, I would think we are talking about extremes: "5 or less" OR "12 or more". As of today, Tuesday, I don't think we have any idea what to expect...Until the Republican Convention is over, every day is going to be a new and unpredictable adventure.
posted 13 weeks ago

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