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Will President Bush issue preemptive pardons before leaving office?

Current forecast: 74% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 74% likely to happen (down 1% in last 1 day)

Several ongoing Congressional investigations target either members of Bush's staff (e.g., Rove), or deal with alleged misconduct associated with the "War on Terror." There is speculation that GWB may issue preemptive pardons to protect those who supported his policies from conviction under the aegis of a future administration.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
74%
No
26%
Activity: H$96,745
Question suspends in 6 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 2009 9pm PST (6 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Mon 1st Sep 6:05pm PDT by moonglow
Settlement requested Today 2:31pm PST by rk725: Bush issued pardons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_pardoned_by_George_W._Bush

Suspend date: Tue 20th Jan 2009 9pm PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (301)

301 predictions

6 days ago
frog predicted No (H$20 at 25%)
1 week ago
divakaleigh predicted Yes (H$300 at 75%)
1 week ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100 at 76%)
2 weeks ago
smidge76 predicted Yes (H$3,000 at 74%)
2 weeks ago
rogi predicted Yes (H$50 at 72%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 bigken1
good question moonglow.
With his closeness to God, I think he will even issue religious pardons on behalf of his staff. By the way, can he pardon himself?
That is the one, who really needs the greatest pardon. After all, isn't that where the buck stops?
posted 13 weeks ago
  2 Erik
What is a "preemptive pardon" and why is there a 50% chance that this will happen when it's impossible to pardon someone before they are convicted?
posted 13 weeks ago
  3 Erik
Well heck...wasn't voided, I'll put 5k on a constitutionally imposibility not happening.
posted 13 weeks ago
Per Wikipedia definition of Pardon, listed under United States:
"A presidential pardon may be granted at any time, however, and as when Ford pardoned Nixon, the pardoned person need not yet have been convicted or even formally charged with a crime."
posted 13 weeks ago
  5 smidge76
Regarding the "constitutionally imposibility," the Supreme Court ruled on this matter in 1866 on behalf of a former Confederate Senator who had been previously pardoned by Andrew Jackson. Here are the pertinent parts of the decision:

"9. The power of pardon conferred by the Constitution upon the President is unlimited except in cases of impeachment. It extends to every offence known to the law, and may be exercised at any time after its commission, either before legal proceedings are taken or during their pendency, or after conviction and judgment. The power is not subject to legislative control.
10. A pardon reaches the punishment prescribed for an offence and the guilt of the offender. If granted before conviction, it prevents any of the penalties and disabilities consequent upon conviction from attaching."
Source: Cornell University Law School website: http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/historics/USSC_CR_0071_0333_ZS.html

As mentioned by bout3fitty, the pre-emptive pardon was used by Ford to pardon Nixon, and is sometimes mentioned as the leading factor in his defeat in the 1976 election against Carter.

Also, Factcheck.org recently was asked the question, and responded on their website:
http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/can_a_president_issue_a_blanket_pardon.html

Great question. It's certainly relevant as there has been a lot of speculation on the matter in the media. Some sources say that Bush is being pushed by conservatives to exercise this option for official involved in his "counterterrorism" programs. Please note that I expressing no opinion as to the reliability of these sources...primarily blogs and the NY Times... I am merely noting that it has been reported/rumored. To me, 50/50 odds seem as good a starting place as any.
posted 13 weeks ago
It may very well happen; seems to have become SOP for outgoing presidents. Look at the sleazeballs and wealthy fugitive donor-criminals that Clinton pardoned. Half the country didn't seem to mind, nor did the media outside of right-leaning talk radio. Bush might see it as having no significant downside, as he's used to getting hammered by left-leaning media anyway over just about anything he does anymore.
posted 11 weeks ago
Yes, every president issues pardons... but this question is referring to "preemptive pardons"
posted 11 weeks ago
Ohhhh... I see... this is an ongoing discussion... the preemptive part was already clarified above... from my backward reading of comments it was like a preemptive clarification :-D
posted 11 weeks ago
I think he will pardon Barack Obama for the treason committed during his visit to Iraq...
posted 3 weeks ago

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