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Will the Ellen Degeneres - Portia De Rossi marriage be terminated by 8/15/2009?

Current forecast: 40% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 40% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Degeneres, 50, and De Rossi, 35, married in Beverly Hills on August 16, 2008.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Death, divorce or a change in California law to disallow gay marriages performed over the summer will be considered as a "yes" result to this question.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
40%
No
60%
Activity: H$19,296
Question suspends in 36 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 16th Aug 2009 12:59am PDT (36 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 2nd Sep 7:51am PDT by owlcreekobserver
Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 11:31pm PST by Erik: Under settlement details it is stated, “Death, divorce or a change in California law to disallow gay marriages will be considered as a "yes" result to this question.”
This market: http://www.hubdub.com/m7777/Will_California_pass_Proposition_8_this_November_banning_gay_marriage
settled as “Yes.”
Therefore this market should settle as “Yes” as well.
Suspended Sat 8th Nov 9:04am PST by onedave[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sat 8th Nov 9:04am PST by onedave[Power User]: Please settle as 'yes.' California has banned same-sex marriages. According to settlement details, this market settles as 'yes.'
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-gaymarriage5-2008nov05,0,1545381.story (market suspended)
Unsuspended Sat 8th Nov 6:40pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Although Proposition 8 has passed, it remains unclear what effect that will have on marriages performed over the summer. This market will remain open until the fate of those marriages (and Ellens in particular) has been determined.

Suspend date: Sun 16th Aug 2009 12:59am PDT (36 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (39)

39 predictions

14 hours ago
kdahl predicted Yes (H$5 at 40%)
1 week ago
lcsnor predicted No (H$100 at 64%)
3 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$220 at 64%)
8 weeks ago
broom_and_gride predicted No (H$100 at 64%)
8 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted No (H$50 at 64%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 Erik
This is way out of line. It clearly stated in settlement details, “Death, divorce or a change in California law to disallow gay marriages will be considered as a "yes" result to this question.”
Well guess what, there was indeed a change in California law.
But jenni has now inserted “...to disallow gay marriages performed over the summer.”
Once again Hubdub and jenni in particular has taken it upon themselves to change the rules in midstream.
posted 3 weeks ago
@Erik - The question clearly asks "Will Ellen/Portia's marriage be terminated" the settlement details are open to some interpretation (i.e. has the law even been technically changed yet? Answer: no), but the market question is quite clear and it hasn't been resolved yet. So the market will remain open until we know the fate of Ellen's marriage. Sorry if you are frustrated by that, but as we've said before we strive to make sure markets settle on a common sense interpretation and not the fine print.
posted 3 weeks ago
  3 Erik
jenni- the settlement details are open to some interpretation (i.e. has the law even been technically changed yet? Answer: yes),
“The political turmoil and legal confusion over the issue has deepened after Californian voters approved a constitutional amendment disallowing gay marriage.” Belfast Telegraph, Friday, 7 November 2008
“Death, divorce or a change in California law to disallow gay marriages will be considered as a "yes" result to this question.”
Your editing changed this market.
If you wished for the market to be different you should have created a new market. Not changed this one.
How unbelievably pompous of you.
posted 3 weeks ago
That's so very rude of you, Erik. The question is not about Prop 8, but about the state of the particular marriage of Ellen Degeneres. At the moment, that marriage is NOT disallowed. For example, let's see what California's own Terminator (aka Governor) has to say about it.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-protest10-2008nov10,0,4939340.story
posted 3 weeks ago
As to the technical legal issues, here's an op-ed from today's LA Times by an associate dean and professor of law at UC Berkeley, which addresses (second point, halfway through article) the precise issue of the retroactive application of Prop 8 on previously performed gay marriages in California. Basically, Prop 8 does not directly disallow those marriages in the body of the initiative, but only in passing in rebuttal to rebuttal of the initiative, which has important legal implications.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-liu10-2008nov10,0,3403185.story
posted 3 weeks ago

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