NFL - New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins. Who will win ATS on 09/07?

I prefer a straight win or lose question. But then, I also prefer up or down market questions, as well.

One of the reasons for the markets using a point spread is that it allows markets to start at 50/50 and keeps markets more tempting to wager on. Take this weeks New England Patriots game against the Kansas City Chiefs, they are 16 1/2 point favorites. If we did that as a straight win/lose market the odds would have been 82 -18 in favor of New England. If enough users like the straight up markets then we can try running some of those and see how they work. Feel free to leave comments and know that alot of the markets created in week 1 are test markets to see how strong user interest is in particular questions.

<<<destry said: Take this weeks New England Patriots game against the Kansas City Chiefs, they are 16 1/2 point favorites. If we did that as a straight win/lose market the odds would have been 82 -18 in favor of New England.>>>

I know, but I don't have to think as hard. :-) If I have any ideas, I'll post them,.

I think the point spread is better than arbitrary chances estimated by the question creator...I think we discussed this before the superbowl... I think the argument was over whose point spread to use as the standard for question creation...

There was quite a bit of discussion about this and I even created a few test markets, asking for feedback. Some advantages with the point spreads: 1) in the example above (New England starting at 82%), even though New England is an obvious favorite, I often don't waste my time wagering on questions in which I risk that much more than I stand to lose...this becomes even more true after a few people have wagered on it; 2) Point spreads reduce the number of voided or problematic questions with bad starting percentages...as they can all start at 50/50. 3) The fact that they start at 50/50 seems to attract more wagers on both sides. 4) I think the point spreads make the questions more challenging. Many people would pick New England to win that game, but do the same number think they'll win by 16.5?

Just some thoughts and reasons for going this way with these questions. Comments and feedback for improvement are welcome.

Many people would pick New England to win that game, but do the same number think they'll win by 16.5?

Heh ... I read an article sometime last year, about "Why Las Vegas Hates the Patriots"... as I recall, although New England was consistently winning, Vegas sports books were consistently losing because the Patriots didn't hit the point spread. Guess the only way a New England fan could win a bet in Vegas was to bet against them!

Ideally, point-spread questions on HD would have the vig backed out ;-)

Found the article: "Odds are Vegas not pleased"

"...Patriots' 2-7 record vs. the spread in their last nine games. [last season]

"Actually, the Patriots all season long have been a thorn in our side," Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, said. "It's a team we just cannot figure out. We took it in the shorts for pretty much two-thirds of the season."

<http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/01/24/odds_are_vegas_not_pleased/?page=1>
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