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How many people will watch Sarah Palin's acceptance speech tonight?

Settled as 24 to less than 38 million

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - More than 37 million U.S. TV viewers tuned in to watch Sarah Palin accept the Republican nomination for vice president on Wednesday, just shy of the record set last week by Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, Nielsen Media Research reported.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-35323420080904

Background:

Sarah Palin has been launched from relative unknown to overnight celebrity. She is on the cover of 4 national magazines this week and the number one story of pretty much every single news network. She dominates the front page of digg and constitutes almost all of our new politics questions. Hate her or love her, certainly everyone has an opinion they want to share.

Obama broke records last week with 38 million viewers during his acceptance speech, but its looking like Sarah has a good chance to break that record tonight. How many people will watch her this evening?

For reference:
Hillary drew 25 million
Biden drew 24 million
Obama drew 38 million


Settlement details: As reported by Nielson

Example http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/obama-speech-final-day-of-dnc-reaches-a-quarter-of-american-households/

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Less than 24 million
11%
24 to less than 38 million
61%
38 million or more
27%
Activity: H$24,416
Settled as 24 to less than 38 million on Thu 4th Sep 1:18pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 3rd Sep 5pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 1:18pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 3rd Sep 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 24 million: 10%, 24 to less than 38 million: 45%, 38 million or more: 45%

Action history:

Created Wed 3rd Sep 10:28am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Suspended Wed 3rd Sep 5pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 4th Sep 1:15pm PDT by rbrog77: I heard a Republican on MSNBC say she had 37 million. Not sure if it's ture or not, but that's what he said.
Settled as '24 to less than 38 million' Thu 4th Sep 1:18pm PDT by destry[Admin]: LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - More than 37 million U.S. TV viewers tuned in to watch Sarah Palin accept the Republican nomination for vice president on Wednesday, just shy of the record set last week by Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, Nielsen Media Research reported.
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-35323420080904

Suspend date: Wed 3rd Sep 5pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 1:18pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 3rd Sep 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (71)

71 predictions

12 weeks ago
matt_bieri predicted Less than 24 million (H$100 at 11%)
12 weeks ago
corbanbrook predicted 24 to less than 38 million (H$100 at 62%)
12 weeks ago
kida predicted 24 to less than 38 million (H$50 at 51%)
12 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted Less than 24 million (H$100 at 12%)
12 weeks ago
bout3fitty predicted 38 million or more (H$300 at 34%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 cici
I will, and she's on after my bedtime (eastern time zone)
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 rbrog77
I heard a Republican on MSNBC say she had 37 million. Not sure if it's ture or not, but that's what he said.
posted 12 weeks ago
37,244,000 is the number I heard.

Great job Governor Palin!
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 geoff
Wow... man.

While there were actually over 40 million viewers (PBS's 3.9 + Nielsen's 37.2), the settlement details are pretty specific about using Nielsen's numbers (which don't include PBS *or* C-SPAN).

AP reports (more accurate) 40million+ viewers:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h1PNEAlNhi736iLSoZ4vEsFWALhgD9305CCO0

Official Nielsen report of 37.2million viewers:
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/palin-triggers-rnc-ratings-spike/

So I'm guessing the initial settlement will stand. :)
posted 12 weeks ago

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