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Question created by

Which presidential candidate will top the Reuters/Zogby poll in September?

Settled as Barack Obama

Obama up by 2.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1642854220080917

Background:

John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Barack Obama in the presidential race, according to the August Reuters/Zogby poll http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUKN1948672420080820. Will he maintain that lead when the next poll is published Sept. 17?

Category Editor Clarification
This market will settle based on who is leading in the poll, in the case of a tie, market will be voided. This is the first market with our new partners at reuters and we are very excited about working with them, as more markets are created I am sure we will get into a situation where there needs to be less clarifications.


Settlement details: As reported on http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/rzi

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

John McCain
77%
Barack Obama
23%
Activity: H$161,369
Settled as Barack Obama on Wed 17th Sep 6:18am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 17th Sep 3:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 17th Sep 6:18am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 17th Sep 3:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: John McCain: 50%, Barack Obama: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 3rd Sep 11:54am PDT by reuters
Suspended Wed 17th Sep 3:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 17th Sep 6:04am PDT by smidge76: Obama up by 2.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1642854220080917
Settled as 'Barack Obama' Wed 17th Sep 6:18am PDT by destry[Admin]: Obama up by 2.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1642854220080917

Suspend date: Wed 17th Sep 3:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 17th Sep 6:18am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 17th Sep 3:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (438)

438 predictions

10 weeks ago
queviltai predicted John McCain (H$15 at 77%)
10 weeks ago
jgardner100 predicted Barack Obama (H$10 at 23%)
10 weeks ago
jgardner100 predicted Barack Obama (H$20 at 23%)
10 weeks ago
boothy1 predicted John McCain (H$16 at 77%)
10 weeks ago
queviltai predicted Barack Obama (H$10 at 23%)
more

Comments (14)

Finally a little good news for John McCains campaign. I think McCain has this election in the bag
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 bigken1
I am betting on McCain, but I hope I am wrong. I am always trying to separate my predictions from wishes. To be more objective with my predictions..

I think there's some kind of saying, about 'no one ever lost money in overestimating the intelligence of the American people'.
posted 12 weeks ago
then there's also the term "useful idiot"
posted 12 weeks ago
........????? That was kind of random don't you think Robamichael. On a similar note theres also the term Guys with glass houses shouldn't throw stones. And All that glitters is not gold. I'm sure someone lost money betting in overestimating the intelligence of the american people. I dont know how and i don't know when but i bet they did. Also i don't really understand that quote. No one has ever lost money thinking the American people are smarter than they actually are? well if you think that obama would be the right choice wouldnt that mean that you think that if there intelligence was higher that they would be betting obama which would mean you would be predicting obama?
posted 12 weeks ago
  5 jsevigny
Probably not wise to pay TOO much attention to this week's polling. But as far asthe smartmoney goes, I agree, I'm betting on McCain. Not voting though.
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 geoff
To win, does a candidate have to be outside the margin of error?
posted 11 weeks ago
  7 reuters
In answer to Geoff, no.
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 john1
Because hubbub involves no real money and the "investors" have nothing at stake, it's not very accurate at prediction. This particular question had Obama at 23%--and he won!
posted 10 weeks ago
  9 smidge76
What do you mean, John? McCain was a logical choice. He's been up in most polls for the past week, and he was up by 5 points last month. Polls are hard to predict. The fact it ended up being Obama doesn't mean that more people would have been placing their money on him if it were a real "investment." I put my money on Obama, but I was doing it as a long shot because I liked the odds. I figured there was a good chance I would be losing my money on it, but I liked the potential payout better. This question isn't on Intrade, but I suspect that McCain would have been ahead there as well. I looked at several markets on Intrade that are also on hubdub and in most cases the odds were within 3 points of each other. I saw one market where the odds were off by 8 points and one where they were off by 5. I don't think money was a factor, people just genuinely believed that McCain would be ahead.
posted 10 weeks ago
We are voting on the outcome of the market, not on the candidates themselves....I too took the long odds, but I was fairly confident it would be closer than the market indicated...
posted 10 weeks ago
  11 wwgu44
I figured that with the recent economic troubles and the media coverage focusing on McCain's negative ads, Obama might be able to eek out a slight lead.
posted 10 weeks ago
I have a real problem, I picked McCain and it said I lost. That is the 2nd time
that I have made a coorect prediction and didn't get credit for it. What can I
do?
posted 10 weeks ago
@lafferty - If you click on the link at the top of the page: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1642854220080917 It shows that Obama was up by 2, so the correct prediction for this market is "Obama." If you predicted McCain, you lost your bet because it was incorrect. Hope that's clear!
posted 10 weeks ago
You are correct.. I AM SLOW..I can't believe I did that...
posted 10 weeks ago

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