Which presidential candidate will top the Reuters/Zogby poll in September?

Finally a little good news for John McCains campaign. I think McCain has this election in the bag

I am betting on McCain, but I hope I am wrong. I am always trying to separate my predictions from wishes. To be more objective with my predictions..

I think there's some kind of saying, about 'no one ever lost money in overestimating the intelligence of the American people'.

then there's also the term "useful idiot"

........????? That was kind of random don't you think Robamichael. On a similar note theres also the term Guys with glass houses shouldn't throw stones. And All that glitters is not gold. I'm sure someone lost money betting in overestimating the intelligence of the american people. I dont know how and i don't know when but i bet they did. Also i don't really understand that quote. No one has ever lost money thinking the American people are smarter than they actually are? well if you think that obama would be the right choice wouldnt that mean that you think that if there intelligence was higher that they would be betting obama which would mean you would be predicting obama?

Probably not wise to pay TOO much attention to this week's polling. But as far asthe smartmoney goes, I agree, I'm betting on McCain. Not voting though.

To win, does a candidate have to be outside the margin of error?

In answer to Geoff, no.

Because hubbub involves no real money and the "investors" have nothing at stake, it's not very accurate at prediction. This particular question had Obama at 23%--and he won!

What do you mean, John? McCain was a logical choice. He's been up in most polls for the past week, and he was up by 5 points last month. Polls are hard to predict. The fact it ended up being Obama doesn't mean that more people would have been placing their money on him if it were a real "investment." I put my money on Obama, but I was doing it as a long shot because I liked the odds. I figured there was a good chance I would be losing my money on it, but I liked the potential payout better. This question isn't on Intrade, but I suspect that McCain would have been ahead there as well. I looked at several markets on Intrade that are also on hubdub and in most cases the odds were within 3 points of each other. I saw one market where the odds were off by 8 points and one where they were off by 5. I don't think money was a factor, people just genuinely believed that McCain would be ahead.

We are voting on the outcome of the market, not on the candidates themselves....I too took the long odds, but I was fairly confident it would be closer than the market indicated...

I figured that with the recent economic troubles and the media coverage focusing on McCain's negative ads, Obama might be able to eek out a slight lead.

I have a real problem, I picked McCain and it said I lost. That is the 2nd time
that I have made a coorect prediction and didn't get credit for it. What can I
do?

@lafferty - If you click on the link at the top of the page: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1642854220080917 It shows that Obama was up by 2, so the correct prediction for this market is "Obama." If you predicted McCain, you lost your bet because it was incorrect. Hope that's clear!

You are correct.. I AM SLOW..I can't believe I did that...