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Created Thu 4th Sep 10:23pm PDT by gulfbreezer
All questions » World » Europe » 

Due to events in Georgia, will Russians threaten to restrict natural gas flow to Europe this Winter?

Voided

There are too many ambiguities in this question to make for a good Hubdub question. Primarily, any Russian action in the future may or may not be related to the Georgian situation. Please refer to the Question Guidelines and Rules: http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion. Voided for not being possible to settle objectively.

Background:

The ultimate prize in this contest is control over the flow of oil and natural gas from the energy-rich Caspian basin to eager markets in Europe and Asia. According to the most recent tally by oil giant BP, the Caspian's leading energy producers, all former "socialist republics" of the Soviet Union -- notably Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan -- together possess approximately 48 billion barrels in proven oil reserves (roughly equivalent to those left in the U.S. and Canada) and 268 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (essentially equivalent to what Saudi Arabia possesses). See source for more details: http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174971/michael_klare_the_bush_administration_checkmated_in_georgia


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

 Yes
65%
No
35%
Voided Wed 10th Sep 6:02am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 28th Feb 2009 3:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 65%

Action history:

Created Thu 4th Sep 10:23pm PDT by gulfbreezer
Suspended Mon 8th Sep 10:39am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Question suspended pending clarification
Voided Wed 10th Sep 6:02am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: There are too many ambiguities in this question to make for a good Hubdub question. Primarily, any Russian action in the future may or may not be related to the Georgian situation. Please refer to the Question Guidelines and Rules: http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion. Voided for not being possible to settle objectively.

Suspend date: Sat 28th Feb 2009 3:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (13)

13 predictions

12 weeks ago
matthelm predicted No (H$50 at 35%)
12 weeks ago
manilamaverick predicted No (H$250 at 35%)
12 weeks ago
freeze predicted Yes (H$20 at 66%)
12 weeks ago
ole_utan predicted No (H$50 at 35%)
12 weeks ago
johnd predicted Yes (H$50 at 65%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 matthelm
Hate to nitpick, but how will we determine if any restriction is due to "events in Georgia"? The Kremlin likely will not state that outright...more probable they will cite a contract dispute or similar. Also, what about a restriction due to any "events" in Ukraine or another transit country? Remember that Russia has a contract dispute with Ukraine, as a result of which Europe ended up getting less natural gas (not that Ukraine was entirely blamess in that one...).
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 gulfbreezer
Very nicely parsed; but I would suggest the news media as the authority to validate the question, and its sub-issues. Regardless of the realities behind the headlines, or the manipulation by the political or media institutions, if the reported news says that the Russians threaten gas supplies to Europe (a defined geography) before the closing date of 2/28/09 (which predates the vernal equinox by 3 weeks) then that will be sufficient validation, imho.
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 gulfbreezer
It is simply a matter of keywords matching: Russia+gas+Georgia+threat+Europe before 2/28/09. Cannot this query be judged sufficient?
posted 12 weeks ago

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score: 10
The High Cost Of Cheap Oil By Sandy LeonVest

Coastal Post 12 weeks ago
its way out of crisis have ended. That new reality is made clear by the current conflict between Russia and Georgia, which is looking more and more like one between Russia and the US ... Americans will need to ask themselves how much more they are

score: 10
BTC project crisis and the Caspian Basin energy game

Payvand Iran News 12 weeks ago
Azerbaijan's leaders and the executives or international energy companies are currently concerned about the future of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC) and the Nabucco gas pipeline project. The BTC connects Azerbaijan with Turkey and crosses

score: 10
The Bush Administration Checkmated in Georgia

AlterNet.org 12 weeks ago
in scores of nations around the planet (including Iraq and Iran), there was 'a tacit... U.S. denial that Russia [had] any legitimate national interests outside its own territory, even in ethnically akin or contiguous former republics such as Ukraine,

score: 10
Russia, Georgia and the High Cost of Cheap Oil

Toward Freedom 13 weeks ago
its way out of crisis have ended. That new reality is made clear by the current conflict between Russia and Georgia, which is looking more and more like one between Russia and the US. As they look into the abyss, Americans will need to ask themselves

score: 10
Geopolitics - September 3

Energy Bulletin 13 weeks ago
of Stalin's jack-booted Soviet Union. Others have viewed it a throwback to the age-old ethnic politics of southeastern Europe, with assorted minorities using contemporary border disputes to settle ancient scores. Neither of these explanations is

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