Created Fri 5th Sep 8:37am PDT by 
keyeshoveden
All questions » Business » Economics » keyeshoveden 
Will the US economy have negative growth in the third quarter 2008?
Settled as Yes
There was negative growth (-0.3%) in the 3rd Quarter regarding the GDP as compared to the level at the end of the 2nd Quarter. Question does not refer to negative growth in the annual numbers, but only 'in' the third quarter.
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States --decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis."
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Background:
The US economy has held up better than many expected and certainly better than the Eurozone and the UK. But is the credit crunch going to start really hitting now?
In the markets at least the answer is yes, but for average Americans the effects of the credit crunch are still nominal. Even after the failed bailout plan in Congress, the markets rebounded on word that the bailout would happen. Besides the credit crunch one are where Americans will feel the pinch is in job growth, over the past few months job growth has declined and with that the possibilities of major positive growth in the economy.
This market settles based on the official GDP data which is released. Two successive quarters of negative growth would constitute a official recession, but many analysts warn that unofficially the American economy is already in recession and all we need do is wait for the official results to catch up...
Edited by Ryanj
In the markets at least the answer is yes, but for average Americans the effects of the credit crunch are still nominal. Even after the failed bailout plan in Congress, the markets rebounded on word that the bailout would happen. Besides the credit crunch one are where Americans will feel the pinch is in job growth, over the past few months job growth has declined and with that the possibilities of major positive growth in the economy.
This market settles based on the official GDP data which is released. Two successive quarters of negative growth would constitute a official recession, but many analysts warn that unofficially the American economy is already in recession and all we need do is wait for the official results to catch up...
Edited by Ryanj
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. Based on the first release of official GDP data.
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$56,253
Settled as Yes on Sat 1st Nov 5:12am PDT
Suspend date: Wed 15th Oct 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 1st Nov 5:12am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Oct 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%
Action history:
Created Fri 5th Sep 8:37am PDT by keyeshoveden
keyeshoveden
Changed Description Tue 30th Sep 10:51am PDT by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
ryanj: show details ... But
is
the
credit
crunch
going
to
start
really
hitting
... now?now?<br/>
<br/>
In
the
markets
at
least
the
answer
is
yes,
but
for
average
Americans
the
effects
of
the
credit
crunch
are
still
nominal.
Even
after
the
failed
bailout
plan
in
Congress,
the
markets
rebounded
on
word
that
the
bailout
would
happen.
Besides
the
credit
crunch
one
are
where
Americans
will
feel
the
pinch
is
in
job
growth,
over
the
past
few
months
job
growth
has
declined
and
with
that
the
possibilities
of
major
positive
growth
in
the
economy.
<br/>
<br/>
This
market
settles
based
on
the
official
GDP
data
which
is
released.
Two
successive
quarters
of
negative
growth
would
constitute
a
official
recession,
but
many
analysts
warn
that
unofficially
the
American
economy
is
already
in
recession
and
all
we
need
do
is
wait
for
the
official
results
to
catch
up...<br/>
Changed Description Tue 30th Sep 10:51am PDT by ryanj: show details
ryanj: show details ... do
is
wait
for
the
official
results
to
catch
up...<br/>
... <br/>
Edited
by
Ryanj
Suspended Wed 15th Oct 8:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 30th Oct 5:50am PDT by 
rbrog77: U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter
Contraction at 0.3 percent pace signals start of possible recession
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27453121/
rbrog77: U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter
Contraction at 0.3 percent pace signals start of possible recession
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27453121/
Settlement requested Thu 30th Oct 5:51am PDT by 
eliminati: Just out, was negative .3
eliminati: Just out, was negative .3
Settlement requested Thu 30th Oct 7am PDT by 
Erik: This should settle as "No."
"The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081030/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown_62
2.8% - 0.3% = 2.5% growth. Less than last quarter, but growth nonetheless.
Erik: This should settle as "No."
"The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081030/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown_62
2.8% - 0.3% = 2.5% growth. Less than last quarter, but growth nonetheless.
Settlement requested Fri 31st Oct 1:40am PDT by keyeshoveden: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5051815.ece?&EMC-Bltn=LKWHR9
keyeshoveden: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5051815.ece?&EMC-Bltn=LKWHR9
Settlement requested Fri 31st Oct 8:45pm PDT by 
dieseldog: question doesn't ask if there will be a "decline" in growth. it ask if there will be "negative growth." 2.5% isn't negative growth.
dieseldog: question doesn't ask if there will be a "decline" in growth. it ask if there will be "negative growth." 2.5% isn't negative growth.
Settlement requested Sat 1st Nov 3:28am PDT by 
oppugner: Question should settle as yes.
From http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008,
(that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis."
A decrease is negative growth. An increase would have been positive growth from Q2 to Q3. The question does not ask if the annualised growth rate is negative or not, just what happened in Q3.
oppugner: Question should settle as yes.
From http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008,
(that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis."
A decrease is negative growth. An increase would have been positive growth from Q2 to Q3. The question does not ask if the annualised growth rate is negative or not, just what happened in Q3.
Settled as 'Yes' Sat 1st Nov 5:12am PDT by 
bayoubear: There was negative growth (-0.3%) in the 3rd Quarter regarding the GDP as compared to the level at the end of the 2nd Quarter. Question does not refer to negative growth in the annual numbers, but only 'in' the third quarter.
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States --decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis."
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
bayoubear: There was negative growth (-0.3%) in the 3rd Quarter regarding the GDP as compared to the level at the end of the 2nd Quarter. Question does not refer to negative growth in the annual numbers, but only 'in' the third quarter.
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States --decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2008, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis."
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Suspend date: Wed 15th Oct 8:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 1st Nov 5:12am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Oct 8:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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joaoxxxComments (5)
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score: 10
NewsMax.com 7 weeks ago
preventing further erosion.' Already, the crisis has taken a heavy toll on economic prospects. Wieting now expects nominal U.S. economic growth next year will be the weakest since 1954, with unemployment climbing to 8.5 percent from the current 6.1
score: 10
Straits Times 7 weeks ago
further erosion.' Already, the crisis has taken a heavy toll on economic prospects. Mr Wieting now expects nominal US economic growth next year will be the weakest since 1954, with unemployment climbing to 8.5 per cent from the current 6.1 per cent.
score: 10
Globe Investor 7 weeks ago
than preventing further erosion.'Already, the crisis has taken a heavy toll on economic prospects. Wieting now expects nominal U.S. economic growth next year will be the weakest since 1954, with unemployment climbing to 8.5 percent from the current 6.1
score: 10
Sharewatch 7 weeks ago
preventing further erosion.' Already, the crisis has taken a heavy toll on economic prospects. Wieting now expects nominal U.S. economic growth next year will be the weakest since 1954, with unemployment climbing to 8.5 percent from the current 6.1
score: 10
Thought Leader 7 weeks ago
5,37%, the highest in 17 years, and that did not deter the Federal Reserve Bank from cutting rates. US economic growth rate had slowed to 2,2% and is anticipated to slow even further. Similarly, the inflation rate in the United Kingdom was at 4,7%, an
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"The Commerce Department reported that the gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic health, fell at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the July-September period, a significant slowdown after growth of 2.8 percent in the prior quarter."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081030/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown_62
2.8% - 0.3% = 2.5% growth. Less than last quarter, but growth nonetheless.
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