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Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 8:30am PST by rpfreely

How many seats will the NDP win the 2008 Canadian Federal Election?

Settled as 36 or more

37 seats
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Background:

Background: Canada is expected to hold a General Election on October 14, 2008. Last time around, the NDP won 29 seats, and gained 1 during by-elections, to hold a total of 30 at dissolution. How will they do this time around? Even odds to start.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
36 or more
76%
31 to 35
11%
26 to 30
6%
21 to 25
4%
20 or less
2%
Settled as 36 or more on Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:32am PST

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:32am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 36 or more: 20%, 31 to 35: 20%, 26 to 30: 20%, 21 to 25: 20%, 20 or less: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 8:30am PST by rpfreely
Suspended Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as '36 or more' Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:32am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: 37 seats
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 9:32am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (81)

1 year ago
hect0r predicted 36 or more (H$100 at 75%)
1 year ago
gumbloid predicted 31 to 35 (H$100 at 11%)
1 year ago
canadianveggie predicted 31 to 35 (H$100 at 9%)
1 year ago
rpfreely predicted 36 or more (H$106 at 79%)
1 year ago
pekingduck42 predicted 31 to 35 (H$9 at 8%)

Comments (4)

  1 rpfreely
Um, why the marijuana leaf pic?
posted 1 year ago
  2 infernalmachine[Power User]
Okay. I'll change it.
posted 1 year ago
  3 rpfreely
http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/ekos-first-seat-projection/

Ekos projects NDP to win 37 seats
posted 1 year ago
  4 ratel
polls.... I think we need some time for the campaign to sink in, it could change significantly once people astart paying attention.
posted 1 year ago

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