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Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 8:35am PST by rpfreely

In the 2008 Canadian Federal Election, how many seats will the NDP win in Quebec?

Settled as 1 seat

Thomas Mulcair won back his seat fro the NDP in a close race.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/ridings/quebec.html

Background:

Background: For only the second time ever in history, the NDP won a seat in Quebec, after the Outremont by-election in 2007. They hope to build on that number, in light of increased hope from polls, and despite dismal performances in the past. Now that a General Election is expected on October 14, 2008, how will they do?

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
0 seats
15%
1 seat
43%
2 seats
29%
3 or more seats
13%
Settled as 1 seat on Wed 15th Oct 2008 9am PST

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 9am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 seats: 25%, 1 seat: 25%, 2 seats: 25%, 3 or more seats: 25%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 8:35am PST by rpfreely
Suspended Fri 5th Sep 2008 8:59am PST by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending review of initial likelihoods by a category editor.
Unsuspended Sat 6th Sep 2008 10:43am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: Suspend date moved to before the election. Initial probabilities are acceptable as is.
Suspended Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2008 1:34am PST by mork[Power User]: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/ridings/quebec.html
Settled as '1 seat' Wed 15th Oct 2008 9am PST by infernalmachine[Power User]: Thomas Mulcair won back his seat fro the NDP in a close race.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/ridings/quebec.html

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2008 9am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 2008 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (45)

1 year ago
gumbloid predicted 1 seat (H$100 at 42%)
1 year ago
oliver predicted 1 seat (H$20 at 42%)
1 year ago
zollernberg predicted 1 seat (H$136 at 41%)
1 year ago
iknowwhatismyname predicted 2 seats (H$50 at 30%)
1 year ago
maciek416 predicted 1 seat (H$20 at 40%)

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