Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 9:55am PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$34,915)

How many Supreme Court justices will be appointed during the next presidential term (ending 2013)?

Background: When a US Supreme Court justice retires or passes away the President nominates a new justice who has to be confirmed by the Senate. Nominations and recess appointments which are not confirmed by the Senate will not count towards the total. If the next President serves two terms, only the first term will count for this question. Similarly, if the President is replaced for whatever reason, the appointments by the replacement President will count towards this total, so long as they occur before the end of the term.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Zero

One

Two

37%

Three

41%

Four

More than four

Question suspends in 1 year

Activity: H$16,760
Predictions: 54
Comments: 4

Suspend date: Sat 21st Jan 2012 7:59am PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Zero: 24%, One: 25%, Two: 25%, Three: 24%, Four: 1%, More than four: 1%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 9:55am PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$34,915)

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Suspend date: Sat 21st Jan 2012 7:59am PST (1 year to go) details

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Predictions (54)

4 weeks ago

eliminati Level 16, Oracle (H$528,840)

predicted Three (H$750 at 36%)

4 weeks ago

eliminati Level 16, Oracle (H$528,840)

predicted Two (H$750 at 38%)

4 weeks ago

wahsfrog Level 15, Seer (H$251,174)

predicted Three (H$300 at 35%)

28 weeks ago

wahsfrog Level 15, Seer (H$251,174)

predicted Two (H$500 at 36%)

35 weeks ago

pita_soup Level 13, Psychic (H$64,278)

predicted Three (H$100 at 33%)

Comments (4)

bigken1 Level 15, Seer (H$405,067)

Why are people placing their H$ on something that will not end till 4 years from now?

posted 1 year ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$34,915)

Even though it's ending 4 years from now, the values will still fluctuate based on circumstances (e.g. who is elected President, health conditions of justices, etc.) and they would be able to cash in before then.

posted 1 year ago

bookie Level 13, Psychic (H$71,251)

There are questions combining swine flu and members of congress, why do I feel it's inappropriate to mention the effect of the former on this question?

Oops.

posted 46 weeks ago

eliminati Level 16, Oracle (H$528,840)

I just read these comments, and in response to a year old one - some people have so much free money to spread around, it doesn't make sense to let it just set there doing nothing. I place most of mine in sports, but even predicting on nearly everything in football and basketball, there is still a good chunk left to throw around on politics and other nonsense.

posted 16 weeks ago

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