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Will the National Bureau of Economic Research announce in 2008 that the U.S. is in recession?

Settled as Yes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the nation's business cycle arbiter declared on Monday, and the downturn could be the worst since World War Two.

The National Bureau of Economic Research said its business cycle dating committee members met by conference call on Friday and concluded that the economic expansion that started in November 2001 had ended.
Mon Dec 1, 2008 6:58pm EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201

Background:

Surprisingly dismal data on U.S. employment for August has heightened fears of a full-blown recession. To date, the economy has not met the popular definition of recession, two back-to-back quarters of declining GDP. Whether it will meet a more-nuanced definition employed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the accepted recession arbiter, remains to be seen. http://www.reuters.com/article/business/idUSN0545587920080905


Settlement details: An official announcement by the NBER as reported on www.reuters.com

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
77%
No
23%
Activity: H$114,690
Settled as Yes on last Monday 5:56pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) Settlement date: last Monday 5:56pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after last Monday 3:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Sep 2:17pm PDT by reuters
Suspended Thu 30th Oct 5:59am PDT by kruijs[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Thu 30th Oct 5:59am PDT by kruijs[Power User]: "US Shrinks"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7958857 (market suspended)
Unsuspended Fri 31st Oct 3:35am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Requirements for settlement have not been met. The report showed that growth was not a great as before, but not that there was none. Question remains open.
Settlement requested last Monday 9:28am PST by gtown: Yes.

Just announced (Mon Dec 1, 2008 12:20pm EST)
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201
Settlement requested last Monday 9:37am PST by reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201
Settlement requested last Monday 9:57am PST by rogerkni: NBER declared this morning that the economy of the US entered a recession in Dec. 2007. Here's the link.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWOWWB3VGDCg&refer=home
Suspended last Monday 11:25am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Settlement requested last Monday 4:41pm PST by jchiang: This came from Bloomberg, not reuters , not sure if you need it to be from reuters only

http://business.smh.com.au/business/world-business/us-in-recession--since-last-year-20081202-6oxz.html
Settled as 'Yes' last Monday 5:56pm PST by bayoubear[Admin]: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the nation's business cycle arbiter declared on Monday, and the downturn could be the worst since World War Two.

The National Bureau of Economic Research said its business cycle dating committee members met by conference call on Friday and concluded that the economic expansion that started in November 2001 had ended.
Mon Dec 1, 2008 6:58pm EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) Settlement date: last Monday 5:56pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after last Monday 3:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (179)

179 predictions

2 days ago
nicfulton predicted No (H$50 at 23%)
2 days ago
bobdevine predicted Yes (H$1,429 at 79%)
2 days ago
bobdevine predicted Yes (H$2,222 at 77%)
4 days ago
bgrigore predicted No (H$1,000 at 22%)
4 days ago
bgrigore predicted No (H$1,000 at 18%)
more

Comments (8)

  1 dieseldog
@reuters...welcome to hubdub. glad to see you jumping right in and creating questions. happy HDing.
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 curios
come on you guys and girls get out there and spend
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=514495
posted 11 weeks ago
come on you guys and girls get out there and save

Spending is one of the many indicators of economic health but not the reason for it.
posted 11 weeks ago
Kind of like a nice house and flashy-car is an indicator of someone's personal wealth, but not the reason for it. If you don't believe me, go out and finance a house and car above your means and see if it makes you rich.
posted 11 weeks ago
So, consumer spending is an indicator of economic health but doesn't cause economic health.

The MSM and liberal republicans are wrong on this... IMHO
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 rogerkni
CAPITOL REPORT
Recession now certain, economists say: Consumer spending on track for first quarterly decline since early 1990s
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last update: 6:24 p.m. EDT Oct. 1, 2008

The latest data, covering activity in August and September, make it all but certain that the academic economists will eventually declare that the economy is in a recession. The big economic forecasting firms are in the process of updating their forecasts following the release of key data on consumer spending.
.................
If the recession lasts from December 2007 until April 2009, as Gault suspects it will, it would be the longest since the Great Depression. And the recovery, when it comes, won't feel anything like a boom.
.....................
the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, who are the arbiters of recession dating, say that "a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
Four of those indicators have been declining significantly since the first of the year. Employment has fallen at a 0.7% annual pace, incomes are down 1% (even with the rebate), output is down 2.8%, and sales are down 1.3%. Only GDP has bucked the trend, rising at a 1.8% annual rate. How can that be? Can the economy really contract while GDP is growing? The answer is yes, under certain circumstances like now, when exports are booming while domestic consumption and investment are weak.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/recession-now-certain-economists-say/story.aspx?guid={19786F11-56EF-4FCF-94CA-88189A007276}
posted 8 weeks ago
  7 dieseldog
thats why the NBOER was choosen as settlement source.
posted 8 weeks ago
  8 cbloom
I hopes this takes into consideration the revision of the previous quarter that the NBER does when it announces the next quarter's results. If not, this question should be suspended again.
posted 4 weeks ago

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