reuters
Will the National Bureau of Economic Research announce in 2008 that the U.S. is in recession?
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the nation's business cycle arbiter declared on Monday, and the downturn could be the worst since World War Two.
The National Bureau of Economic Research said its business cycle dating committee members met by conference call on Friday and concluded that the economic expansion that started in November 2001 had ended.
Mon Dec 1, 2008 6:58pm EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201
Background:
Settlement details:An official announcement by the NBER as reported on www.reuters.com
| Yes |
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| No |
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- Activity: H$114,690 |
- Predictions: 179 |
Comments: 8
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 5:56pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Dec 2008 3:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
reuters 
kruijs![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: "US Shrinks"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7958857 (market suspended)
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Requirements for settlement have not been met. The report showed that growth was not a great as before, but not that there was none. Question remains open. 
gtown
: Yes.
Just announced (Mon Dec 1, 2008 12:20pm EST)
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201
reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201 
rogerkni
: NBER declared this morning that the economy of the US entered a recession in Dec. 2007. Here's the link.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWOWWB3VGDCg&refer=home
jenniandboys
jchiang
: This came from Bloomberg, not reuters , not sure if you need it to be from reuters only
http://business.smh.com.au/business/world-business/us-in-recession--since-last-year-20081202-6oxz.html
bayoubear: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the nation's business cycle arbiter declared on Monday, and the downturn could be the worst since World War Two.
The National Bureau of Economic Research said its business cycle dating committee members met by conference call on Friday and concluded that the economic expansion that started in November 2001 had ended.
Mon Dec 1, 2008 6:58pm EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B05YX20081201
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Mon 1st Dec 2008 5:56pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Dec 2008 3:55pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (179)
nicfulton
bobdevine
bgrigore
predicted No (H$1,000 at 22%)Comments (8)
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http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=514495
Spending is one of the many indicators of economic health but not the reason for it.
The MSM and liberal republicans are wrong on this... IMHO
Recession now certain, economists say: Consumer spending on track for first quarterly decline since early 1990s
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last update: 6:24 p.m. EDT Oct. 1, 2008
The latest data, covering activity in August and September, make it all but certain that the academic economists will eventually declare that the economy is in a recession. The big economic forecasting firms are in the process of updating their forecasts following the release of key data on consumer spending.
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If the recession lasts from December 2007 until April 2009, as Gault suspects it will, it would be the longest since the Great Depression. And the recovery, when it comes, won't feel anything like a boom.
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the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, who are the arbiters of recession dating, say that "a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
Four of those indicators have been declining significantly since the first of the year. Employment has fallen at a 0.7% annual pace, incomes are down 1% (even with the rebate), output is down 2.8%, and sales are down 1.3%. Only GDP has bucked the trend, rising at a 1.8% annual rate. How can that be? Can the economy really contract while GDP is growing? The answer is yes, under certain circumstances like now, when exports are booming while domestic consumption and investment are weak.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/recession-now-certain-economists-say/story.aspx?guid={19786F11-56EF-4FCF-94CA-88189A007276}
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