Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 3:29pm PST by 
neuronexmachina
neuronexmachina 
What will be the next US launch vehicle to send humans into orbit?
Background: With the Space Shuttle due to retire in 2010, NASA is currently developing the Ares I to launch humans into orbit after the shuttle's retirement. A number of companies are also developing, designing, or have announced an intention to construct their own crewed orbital vehicles. This question concerns which US launch vehicle (other than the Shuttle) will be the next to send at least one living human into orbit around the Earth. A suborbital spaceflight will not qualify. The question will be resolved based on when the human reaches orbit, not on when/if they return to Earth.
The answers only include the general name for the series of launch vehicles, in case of numbering changes (for example, if the Ares I becomes the Ares II). In case of a name change, the original answer will still remain valid.
For more information on the launch vehicles:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4823 (Lockheed Martin)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_I
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin
http://spaceports.blogspot.com/2008/07/taurus-2-may-seek-human-launch-rating.html (Orbital)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XCOR_Aerospace
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic
The answers only include the general name for the series of launch vehicles, in case of numbering changes (for example, if the Ares I becomes the Ares II). In case of a name change, the original answer will still remain valid.
For more information on the launch vehicles:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4823 (Lockheed Martin)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_I
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin
http://spaceports.blogspot.com/2008/07/taurus-2-may-seek-human-launch-rating.html (Orbital)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XCOR_Aerospace
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Lockheed Martin's Atlas series |
| ||||
| NASA's Ares series |
| ||||
| SpaceX's Falcon series |
| ||||
| A vehicle developed by Blue Origin |
| ||||
| A vehicle developed by Orbital Corporation |
| ||||
| A vehicle developed by Virgin Galactic |
| ||||
| A vehicle developed by XCOR Aerospace |
| ||||
| Another vehicle |
| ||||
| No non-Shuttle US manned launch vehicle by 2018 |
|
Question suspends in 8 years
- Activity: H$6,271 |
- Predictions: 43 |
Comments: 3
Suspend date: Wed 5th Sep 2018 11:59pm PST (8 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Lockheed Martin's Atlas series: 20%, NASA's Ares series: 30%, SpaceX's Falcon series: 20%, A vehicle developed by Blue Origin: 5%, A vehicle developed by Orbital Corporation: 5%, A vehicle developed by Virgin Galactic: 5%, A vehicle developed by XCOR Aerospace: 5%, Another vehicle: 5%, No non-Shuttle US manned launch vehicle by 2018: 5%
Action history:
Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 3:29pm PST by neuronexmachina
neuronexmachina 
Suspend date: Wed 5th Sep 2018 11:59pm PST (8 years to go) details 
Get widget!Predictions (43)
mdad8200Comments (3)
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