Created Fri 5th Sep 4:29pm PDT by 
neuronexmachina
All questions » Technology » Other » neuronexmachina 
What will be the next US launch vehicle to send humans into orbit?
Current forecast: NASA's Ares series (30% chance
1%)
1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is NASA's Ares series with a probability of 30% (up 1% in last 1 day)
With the Space Shuttle due to retire in 2010, NASA is currently developing the Ares I to launch humans into orbit after the shuttle's retirement. A number of companies are also developing, designing, or have announced an intention to construct their own crewed orbital vehicles. This question concerns which US launch vehicle (other than the Shuttle) will be the next to send at least one living human into orbit around the Earth. A suborbital spaceflight will not qualify. The question will be resolved based on when the human reaches orbit, not on when/if they return to Earth.
The answers only include the general name for the series of launch vehicles, in case of numbering changes (for example, if the Ares I becomes the Ares II). In case of a name change, the original answer will still remain valid.
For more information on the launch vehicles:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4823 (Lockheed Martin)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_I
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin
http://spaceports.blogspot.com/2008/07/taurus-2-may-seek-human-launch-rating.html (Orbital)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XCOR_Aerospace
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic
The answers only include the general name for the series of launch vehicles, in case of numbering changes (for example, if the Ares I becomes the Ares II). In case of a name change, the original answer will still remain valid.
For more information on the launch vehicles:
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4823 (Lockheed Martin)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_I
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin
http://spaceports.blogspot.com/2008/07/taurus-2-may-seek-human-launch-rating.html (Orbital)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XCOR_Aerospace
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Lockheed Martin's Atlas series |
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NASA's Ares series |
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SpaceX's Falcon series |
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A vehicle developed by Blue Origin |
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A vehicle developed by Orbital Corporation |
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A vehicle developed by Virgin Galactic |
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A vehicle developed by XCOR Aerospace |
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Another vehicle |
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No non-Shuttle US manned launch vehicle by 2018 |
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Activity: H$1,495
Question suspends in 9 years
Suspend date: Thu 6th Sep 2018 12:59am PDT (9 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Lockheed Martin's Atlas series: 20%, NASA's Ares series: 30%, SpaceX's Falcon series: 20%, A vehicle developed by Blue Origin: 5%, A vehicle developed by Orbital Corporation: 5%, A vehicle developed by Virgin Galactic: 5%, A vehicle developed by XCOR Aerospace: 5%, Another vehicle: 5%, No non-Shuttle US manned launch vehicle by 2018: 5%
Action history:
Created Fri 5th Sep 4:29pm PDT by neuronexmachina
neuronexmachina
Suspend date: Thu 6th Sep 2018 12:59am PDT (9 years to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (21)
21 predictions
darklighter
vitorpy
oppugner
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
predicted NASA's Ares series (H$200 at 32%)
rogiComments (2)
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score: 10
Telegraph 22 hours ago
aeroplane, has yet to make a test run. The craft holds just one passenger and its pilot, former NASA space shuttle commander Rick Searfoss. Virgin Galactic is meanwhile planning longer, higher flights that it hopes to begin operating in 2010 aboard a
score: 10
Telegraph 1 day ago
aeroplane, has yet to make a test run. The craft holds just one passenger and its pilot, former NASA space shuttle commander Rick Searfoss. Virgin Galactic is meanwhile planning longer, higher flights that it hopes to begin operating in 2010 aboard a
score: 10
Herald Sun 1 day ago
since Virgin Galactic began selling tickets in 2005. Lynx passengers will fly in the cockpit with a former space shuttle commander by their side. Richard Searfoss, a retired Air Force colonel and astronaut who made three spaceflights before leaving NASA
score: 10
Reuters UK 1 day ago
CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida (Reuters) - The space tourism race heated up on Tuesday when a second company began offering tickets for suborbital rides at less than half the price of competitor Virgin Galactic's. XCOR Aerospace Inc
score: 10
Forbes.com 1 day ago
workshop was at full capacity and we even had to turn away qualified people. With the U.S. Space Shuttle retiring in two years, clearly there is great demand from principal investigators, companies and institutions looking for ways to fly payloads in
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