Net worth: H$1,000
Guest:Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's virtual currency, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
PoliticsSportEntertainmentWorldBusinessTechnologyScienceGeneral

Who will land the next human on the Moon?

Background: A number of countries and private organizations have announced plans for landing a person on the Moon; the last human lunar landing was in 1972. This question will be judged based on the next country or private organization to successfully land a living human on the surface of the Moon. If the mission involves an alliance of multiple entities, the answer category which provides the most funding for the mission will be selected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_the_Moon#Future_plans
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/02/22/65477.aspx

Category Editor Additional Clarification
In the event that two or more parties contribute equal funding to the mission, this question will be settled for both options.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
US government
26%
Chinese government
41%
Russian government
6%
Japanese government
3%
Another country's government
4%
Private company or other non-government entity
13%
No human will land on the Moon before 2025
7%
Question suspends in 15 years

Suspend date: Wed 1st Jan 2025 11:59pm PST (15 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: US government: 35%, Chinese government: 10%, Russian government: 10%, Japanese government: 5%, Another country's government: 5%, Private company or other non-government entity: 30%, No human will land on the Moon before 2025: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 4:33pm PST by neuronexmachina
Suspended Sun 28th Sep 2008 3:16pm PST by theonecalledmichael: Flagged by super user: There needs to be an option for some joint operation between 2 or more countries....
Unsuspended Sun 28th Sep 2008 4:14pm PST by tisha[Admin]: question has been clarified, please refer to background info

Suspend date: Wed 1st Jan 2025 11:59pm PST (15 years to go) details

 

Predictions (86)

5 weeks ago
neopugg predicted Chinese government (H$50 at 41%)
18 weeks ago
moonrat predicted Japanese government (H$20 at 3%)
22 weeks ago
filanator predicted US government (H$20 at 26%)
24 weeks ago
maharius predicted Japanese government (H$20 at 2%)
24 weeks ago
regodude predicted US government (H$100 at 25%)

Comments (13)

  1 randburg
They can drop me off on the way upstairs...
posted 1 year ago
  2 yongke_yu
Oh god, talk about a long term investment...
posted 1 year ago
There should be an option for an alliance of equal partners, or a combination of equal private and government funding. I'll leave it to admin.
posted 1 year ago
  4 tisha[Admin]
Thanks tocm - I've added the following clarification: In the event that two or more parties contribute equal funding to the mission, this question will be ettled for both options.
posted 1 year ago
I hate to split hairs, but if we put 17 years of wagers in here and have to void it or upset people, it wouoldn't be pleasant.... I guess if two of these countries merge, it could settle as both, as well....lol
posted 1 year ago
Thanks, theonecalledmichael. I'd sort of assumed that there would be basically zero chance of both parties contributing exactly the same amount, but I guess it's possible if their terms are specified with that in mind, so that one can't claim to be more responsible for the landing than the other.
posted 1 year ago
Don't get me wrong I love the question, and it was 99 and 44/100's percent perfect! But I've been through a lot of hair splitting in the past, and it's best to address issues sooner than later.... Thanks, Neuro...
posted 1 year ago
Of course, the next logical question would be about a manned mission to mars....Any interest in creating that one, neuro?
posted 1 year ago
We could be waiting for beyond our lifetimes for that. Although i guess if we have kids, die, then it settles our kids would sure appreciate it!
posted 1 year ago
What's the inheritance policy on H$'s?
posted 1 year ago
My daughter is almost ready for this forum......
posted 1 year ago
Yeah theonecalledmichael, I'd considered creating a Mars question a while back, but I think I'm already pushing the long-term aspect pretty far with this one. I think there'd need to be some sort of mechanism in place first for making it so that placing extremely long-term bids has a useful return, but I'm not sure yet what sort of mechanism that might be.
posted 1 year ago
Whatever it is, the inhetitance tax will kill us
posted 1 year ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

Stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real news stories! Win more if you're right and climb the leaderboards Learn more...

Name
Email
New password
By joining you are agreeing to our terms of service

Related News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags


score: 10
ยป Obama orders shuttle review

US President Barack Obama on Thursday ordered a review of a problem-plagued rocket that NASA hopes will replace its shuttle fleet, but the agency insisted the future of manned US space flights was

score: 10
More questions for NASA's manned spaceflight programs

The White House yesterday announced that it will convene a 10-member independent panel to thoroughly review NASA's plans for human spaceflight. The announcement calls into doubt the agency's current cornerstones for manned missions, including the planned

score: 10
Countdown begins for shuttle launch to Hubble

Countdown clocks at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida have begun ticking toward Monday's launch of shuttle Atlantis on a final servicing call to the Hubble Space Telescope. 'Hello Florida, it's great to be

score: 10
Countdown begins for shuttle launch to Hubble

*Panel outlines scope of NASA review CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla., May 8 (Reuters) - Countdown clocks at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida began ticking toward Monday's launch of shuttle Atlantis on a final servicing

score: 10
Obama orders shuttle review

US President Barack Obama on Thursday ordered a review of a problem-plagued rocket that NASA hopes will replace its shuttle fleet, but the agency insisted the future of manned US space flights was