Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 5:17pm PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,505)

How many successful launches will SpaceX have by the end of 2014?

Background: SpaceX is a private orbital rocket launch company started by internet billionaire Elon Musk with the hope of reducing the cost of spaceflight by an order of magnitude. As of September 2008, their first three launches have failed to reach orbit, although Musk has stated that the problems from earlier flights have been identified and fixed. For the purposes of this question a launch will be considered a success if the rocket's payload reaches orbit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
http://spacex.com/updates.php
http://spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Zero

10%

1-2

10%

3-6

10%

7-13

10%

14-22

10%

23-35

16%

36-60

15%

61-100

10%

More than 100

10%

Question suspends in 5 years

Activity: H$190
Predictions: 4
Comments: 0

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2014 3:59pm PST (5 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Zero: 10%, 1-2: 10%, 3-6: 10%, 7-13: 10%, 14-22: 10%, 23-35: 15%, 36-60: 15%, 61-100: 10%, More than 100: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 5th Sep 2008 5:17pm PST by

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,505)

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Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2014 3:59pm PST (5 years to go) details

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Predictions (4)

1 year ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,505)

predicted More than 100 (H$20 at 10%)

1 year ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,505)

predicted 61-100 (H$20 at 10%)

1 year ago

arb1

predicted 23-35 (H$50 at 15%)

1 year ago

neuronexmachina Level 12, Guru (H$33,505)

predicted More than 100 (H$50 at 10%)

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