Created Fri 5th Sep 6:17pm PDT by 
neuronexmachina
All questions » Technology » Other » neuronexmachina 
How many successful launches will SpaceX have by the end of 2014?
Current forecast: 23-35 (16% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 23-35 with a probability of 16% (unchanged in last 1 day)
SpaceX is a private orbital rocket launch company started by internet billionaire Elon Musk with the hope of reducing the cost of spaceflight by an order of magnitude. As of September 2008, their first three launches have failed to reach orbit, although Musk has stated that the problems from earlier flights have been identified and fixed. For the purposes of this question a launch will be considered a success if the rocket's payload reaches orbit.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
http://spacex.com/updates.php
http://spacex.com/launch_manifest.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX
http://spacex.com/updates.php
http://spacex.com/launch_manifest.php
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Zero |
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1-2 |
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3-6 |
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7-13 |
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14-22 |
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23-35 |
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36-60 |
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61-100 |
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More than 100 |
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Activity: H$190
Question suspends in 6 years
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2014 3:59pm PST (6 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Zero: 10%, 1-2: 10%, 3-6: 10%, 7-13: 10%, 14-22: 10%, 23-35: 15%, 36-60: 15%, 61-100: 10%, More than 100: 10%
Action history:
Created Fri 5th Sep 6:17pm PDT by neuronexmachina
neuronexmachina
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2014 3:59pm PST (6 years to go)
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score: 10
Forbes.com 1 day ago
workshop was at full capacity and we even had to turn away qualified people. With the U.S. Space Shuttle retiring in two years, clearly there is great demand from principal investigators, companies and institutions looking for ways to fly payloads in
score: 10
Forbes.com 1 day ago
American Aerospace Advisors Inc. (www.american-aerospace.net) and Space Adventures, Ltd. (www.spaceadventures.com) will collaborate on providing space-specific scientific experiment and research project opportunities that will be made available to Space
score: 10
The Hindu 3 days ago
by the Rotary Club of Tirupur North, from the office-bearers of the Club in Tirupur on Sunday. Tirupur: Space research in the country is now focusing on development of recoverable and reusable launch vehicle technologies to bring down the cost of
score: 10
BBC 1 week ago
Falcon 9 is envisaged to carry crew to the space station A private firm has test-fired a rocket that could soon be flying cargo and astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). The SpaceX company fired the engines of its
score: 10
MarketWatch 1 week ago
Significant Milestone Achieved as SpaceX Prepares to Demonstrate U.S. Transport to the International Space Station HAWTHORNE, Calif., Nov 23, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) successfully conducted a full
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