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Created Sun 7th Sep 10:39am PDT by spyder
All questions » World » Americas » 

What will be the result of the 2008 Canadian Federal Election?

Settled as Conservative Minority

Conservatives get 143 seats, short of the 155 needed for majority.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Background:

Canadians will head to the polls in a general election on Oct. 14. The current Conservative Minority Government lasted over two years, and had replaced a Liberal Minority Government that had lasted only a brief time after succeeding a Liberal Majority Government.

Who will lead this next government and will they have a majority or minority.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Conservative Majority
4%
Conservative Minority
93%
Liberal Majority
0%
Liberal Minority
3%
Other
0%
Activity: H$56,779
Settled as Conservative Minority on Wed 15th Oct 10:34am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 10:34am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Conservative Majority: 35%, Conservative Minority: 35%, Liberal Majority: 5%, Liberal Minority: 20%, Other: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 7th Sep 10:39am PDT by spyder
Changed Description Sat 11th Oct 9:50am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: show details
... succeeding a Liberal Majority Government. <.<br/> <br/> Who will lead
Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 9:50am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-10-13 14:59:00"
Suspended Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Conservative Minority' Wed 15th Oct 10:34am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Conservatives get 143 seats, short of the 155 needed for majority.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/federal-election-2008

Suspend date: Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 10:34am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 14th Oct 3pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (158)

158 predictions

7 weeks ago
shojun predicted Conservative Minority (H$2,900 at 90%)
7 weeks ago
gumbloid predicted Conservative Majority (H$100 at 6%)
7 weeks ago
rmpdr predicted Conservative Minority (H$50 at 89%)
7 weeks ago
rmpdr predicted Conservative Majority (H$20 at 5%)
7 weeks ago
hippyboomer predicted Conservative Majority (H$20 at 5%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 ratel
have to say I'm a bit surprised at this one, we'll have to see how it progresses, minority either seems to most likely, do people really expect a Liberal collapse?
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 hippyboomer
I just don't think the Liberals can win an election by promising to increase taxes
at a time when Canada has a balanced budget and there are worries about the strength
of the world economy.

The latest news reports I can find are below:


From the Globe and Mail - see "Liberals losing ground in key ridings, poll show"
at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080908.welectionpoll09/BNStory/politics

From CBC - see "Canadians set to vote Conservative: poll"
at http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/09/04/poll-results.html

"The Conservatives ...are within striking distance of a majority," Donna Dasko,
senior vice-president of Environics Research Group, told CBC News on Thursday.

"This is the early days and there is no election campaign right at this moment and things can happen, but certainly if you look at this poll today, you would conclude that the Conservatives are in a very good position."
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 ratel
I think people still underestimate the fear of NDP voters and voters in Ontario causing strategic voting that favours the liberals. But it all depends how the campagin goes, the liberals have to look confident and the conesrvatives have to mke some gaffs, otherwise the results will be likely as your pre campaign polls suggest.
posted 11 weeks ago
  4 paulcroft
You also have to take into account the 5 party factor ...I am pretty sure the Greens will take a few seats in this election, the NDP will take their usual number, and the Bloc will get theirs in Quebec. This leaves a limited number to split between the Conservatives and Liberals and therefore makes the possibility of a minority government much higher. This also means that the split vote could allow either party to win, including the Liberals, even though they are lower in the polls.
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 dragonfangxl
About that background, "Canadians will head to the polls in a general election on Oct. 14" is it called a poll if the entire country votes? Isnt it a election?
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 stfxkid
CBC has called it at 10:49pm Eastern time, Minority Government for Harper
posted 7 weeks ago

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