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Will the attorney general indict Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert?

Current forecast: 65% chance 8%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 65% likely to happen (up 8% in last 1 day)

Israel's police recommended Sunday that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert should be indicted in a string of corruption cases, according to an official document.

The decision about whether to indict Olmert rests with the attorney general, Meni Mazuz. In the past, Mazuz and his predecessors have turned down police recommendations to indict Israeli leaders several times.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jHxO0KmvqjmyFN039njXdLAIrXUAD93215CO1

Category Editor Clarification: I'm extending the suspend date on this question from Oct 31/08 to early in 2009, based on the unexpected (at the time the question was created) fact that Olmert will stay on as PM until the snap election. In other words, I'm interpreting this question as asking whether Olmert will be charged while still Prime Minister. It will settle as No if he remains un-indicted at the time he steps down as PM. (See comment #3 for further details.)

IMPORTANT: Question re-opened. Events in late November have raised the likelihood of an indictment in the near future. But for this question, it only settles as Yes if he is indicted while still Prime Minister. If he steps down without (yet) being indicted, it settles as No.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
65%
No
35%
Activity: H$87,335
Question suspends in 9 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 5th Feb 2009 12:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Sun 7th Sep 1:21pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Changed Suspend date Thu 30th Oct 6:42am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: was: "2008-10-31 23:59:00"
Suspended Wed 26th Nov 7:07pm PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: suspended for possible settlement
Unsuspended last Saturday 3:21am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: Not known yet. Please read the new clarification that starts at IMPORTANT: (in bold-type) in the background text.

Suspend date: Thu 5th Feb 2009 12:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (108)

108 predictions

3 weeks ago
hect0r predicted No (H$100 at 43%)
3 weeks ago
hect0r predicted Yes (H$250 at 57%)
3 weeks ago
joetheplumber predicted Yes (H$50 at 56%)
4 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$500 at 42%)
5 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted No (H$5 at 71%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 randburg
Thank you kruijs! I thought we would see a question on this subject today...
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
is suspend date also the settlement date?
posted 5 weeks ago
No. (Good question though.) I'm going to change the suspend date to into early 2009. Question will settle based on whether he is indicted while still PM. The question was asked when it seemed most likely that his unknown (at the time) successor would form a coalition government and he would step down at that time. But with Livni's failure to accomplish that and the snap election, he is staying on until the election.

Because this may not have been what you expected, predictors can send me a flag if they want to cancel a previous wager.
posted 4 weeks ago
The election is Feb 10, it has just been announced. http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/wire/sns-bc-ml--israel-politics,0,6311483.story

The suspend date will be Feb 5th, to add a little risk to the late-predicting.
posted 4 weeks ago
Comment 4 is subject to change if he steps down earlier, etc.
posted 4 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
infernalmachine - thanks for the clarification.
posted 4 weeks ago

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