Created Mon 8th Sep 2008 12:50pm PST by

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

Will Lance Armstrong Return to win the 2009 Tour De France?

Settled as No

He finished 3rd

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html

Background:

Background: It is rumored that Lance is going to be back for the 2009 Tour racing for team Astana. I am setting the odds low because a) maybe the rumors are wrong, b) it isnt easy to win the tour, and c) the last time Astana was in the tour they were DQed for cheating.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

99%

Settled as No on Sun 26th Jul 10:28am PST

Activity: H$551,340
Predictions: 648
Comments: 19

Suspend date: Thu 23rd Jul 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 26th Jul 10:28am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 23rd Jul 3:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Mon 8th Sep 2008 12:50pm PST by

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

Changed Suspend date Thu 7th May 5:17pm PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: was: "2009-08-01 23:59:00"

Suspended Thu 23rd Jul 3:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 26th Jul 8:15am PST by

jake

: Settle as no.

Settlement requested Sun 26th Jul 10:04am PST by

pippi1500 Level 11, Legend (H$21,036)

: No. Alberto Contador wins the 2009 Tour de France.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-23/results

Settled as 'No' Sun 26th Jul 10:28am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: He came in 3rd

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html

Settled as 'No' Sun 26th Jul 10:28am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: He finished 3rd

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html

Settled as 'No' Sun 26th Jul 10:28am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: He finished 3rd

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html

Settled as 'No' Sun 26th Jul 10:28am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: He came in 3rd

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html

Settled as 'No' Sun 26th Jul 10:28am PST by

mrperfkt [Admin]

: He finished 3rd

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/cycling/tour-de-france/standings/yellow.html

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Predictions (648)

17 weeks ago

jeopardy Level 13, Psychic (H$76,764)

predicted No (H$10,000 at 99%)

17 weeks ago

yoschky Level 1, Newbie (H$449)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 1%)

17 weeks ago

robbooth Level 6, Player (H$2,002)

predicted No (H$100 at 96%)

17 weeks ago

alexanderr Level 7, Pro (H$4,217)

predicted No (H$100 at 96%)

17 weeks ago

darthneil Level 10, Genius (H$11,130)

predicted Yes (H$20 at 4%)

Comments (19)

kruijs [Power User]

so, he must BOTH return AND win to settle yes.

posted 1 year ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

correct. he has to return to win, after all.

posted 1 year ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

And Lance confirms his return! http://www.livestrong.com/lance2009/
(Thinking we should include a question about how many more people are going to watch 2009 than watched in 2008!)

posted 1 year ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,575,848)

I can't believe he's riding on the same team as Contador. Contador's going to be hard to beat, but he could at least be racing against him!

posted 1 year ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

armstrong could smoke contador. I say that even though i would prefer that contador win. In any event, if Lance makes it to the tour, i dont think he will lose.

posted 1 year ago

dulldave Level 5, Predictor (H$1,990)

Armstrong is riding the Giro. Even in his prime he couldn't ride the Giro and with the TDF in the same year. It's pretty clear that Armstrong is going to ride the Giro and Contador is going to ride the tour.

Armstrong's PR people are releasing a load of PR bumph about ASO and their attitude toward LAnce. ASO are not biting because they know he has no intention of riding the tour.

Of course if Vinikourov comes back nobody at Astana will be riding the tour. The safe money is on No.

posted 52 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,667,349)

It's probably moot now. While this injury won't keep him from racing in the tour, it will prevent him from being at the peak form he would need to win.

posted 34 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,575,848)

There's talk of him still riding in the Giro - if that happens then he could still get in good form by the TDF

posted 34 weeks ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

damn.

posted 34 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,667,349)

I just don't see him winning either way, before or after the injury. Now the odds seem even longer.

posted 34 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,575,848)

Agreed

posted 33 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,575,848)

posted 33 weeks ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

I am gonna make so much money on you guys..... I hope.

posted 22 weeks ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

"armstrong says he'll kick ass after last year's 'joke' of a tour" -Brisbane Times

Haha. Them is some big words.

posted 21 weeks ago

eric_s_stacy Level 11, Legend (H$15,778)

Does it count as a win if he wins the race and they dispute it and give it to another team after it is over?

posted 19 weeks ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

I think we should settle based upon the results of the race at least within a few days of its finishing. They can debate all they want but as long as he passes any and all drug tests at the end of the race I think we can safely assume it is over.

posted 19 weeks ago

pitchedoutsideleg Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,575,848)

Duckie, for you sake I almost hope he does win, because something tells me you have more riding on this than me! I would still be surprised, though.

posted 19 weeks ago

frogchop Level 17, Superdubber (H$1,667,349)

Why is this question in the Business section?

posted 19 weeks ago

duckie Level 1, Newbie (H$40)

Yeah, I got it all on this question. I can win 150k or lose everything. i think he will win

posted 18 weeks ago

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