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What will be the outcome of Australian Stripper Trial?

Current forecast: Other outcome by suspend date (63% chance1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Other outcome by suspend date with a probability of 63% (down 1% in last 1 day)

Bucks party went wrong and went down in public domain with allegations of hired stripper raping the best man.. what will be the outcome of this trial?

source:http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/stripper-at-bucks-party-to-be-tried-for-rape/2008/09/09/1220857547436.html

If the trial is still on going by the suspend date the market will settle as the other option.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Stripper found guilty before suspend date
10%
Stripper found not guilty before suspend date
8%
Settle out of court before suspend date
20%
Other outcome by suspend date
63%
Activity: H$17,985
Question suspends in 6 days

Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2:59am PST (6 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Stripper found guilty before suspend date: 25%, Stripper found not guilty before suspend date: 25%, Settle out of court before suspend date: 25%, Other outcome by suspend date: 25%

Action history:

Created Tue 9th Sep 4:27pm PDT by jchiang
Suspended Wed 10th Sep 4:24am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Clarifying Market
Clarified Thu 11th Sep 2:47am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: If the trial is on going by the suspend date the market will settle as the other option.
Unsuspended Thu 11th Sep 2:47am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: If the trial is on going by the suspend date the market will settle as the other option.

Suspend date: Fri 28th Nov 2:59am PST (6 days to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (26)

26 predictions

2 weeks ago
kida predicted Other outcome by suspend date (H$200 at 63%)
2 weeks ago
drachenstein predicted Other outcome by suspend date (H$50 at 62%)
2 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Other outcome by suspend date (H$500 at 60%)
2 weeks ago
captainron predicted Other outcome by suspend date (H$250 at 57%)
2 weeks ago
jfisher predicted Stripper found not guilty before suspend date (H$20 at 14%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 dieseldog
from the link in the background...Naggs was ordered to stand trial in the County Court in July. this suspends in 11 weeks. somebody might wanna adjust things, or at least review it. i mighta misread the article. last sentence says stand trial in july.
thats a long time to have a suspended question just sitting there.
posted 10 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
Hi,

After doing some research it seems that although a preliminary trial date has been set, the court is still debating whether the stripper will stand trial so the market can stand.

Ryan
posted 10 weeks ago
This market is a little bit.... well i guess in a extreme numbing down of the situation.... strange. I just cant believe that someone would actually try and make this a question.
posted 10 weeks ago
  5 mork[Power User]
comic relief
posted 10 weeks ago
  6 bayoubear[Admin]
It's an interesting tidbit of news...made a bit of an adjustment in the question itself.

I don't see her being found guilty....
posted 10 weeks ago
I dont get that picture. Its a guy riding a horse... oh wait now i get it... And no she wont get found guilty. My guess is that lawyer is telling that client that he can win so that he can make some money. Hes going to pay more to a lawyer than he'll ever get from her.
posted 9 weeks ago
How can you settle out of court in a rape case? Isn't it the state prosecuting, not an individual?
posted 6 weeks ago
  9 jchiang
Even murders from Law & Order gets settled out of court so..

On a serious note - out of court settlement is permitted in sex abuse cases - http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/stories/s660987.htm
posted 2 weeks ago

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