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What position will Lance Armstrong finish in the 2009 Tour de France overall standing?

Current forecast: Win (38% chance2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Win with a probability of 38% (down 2% in last 1 day)

Lance Armstrong announced his return to professional cycling and said he is going to try to win his eighth Tour de France. How will Lance finish in the race, if his return is successful and he enters with a team.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Win
38%
2nd or 3rd (podium)
8%
4th-10th
8%
Outside Top Ten (but finishes)
12%
Doesn't start the race
24%
Doesn't complete all stages
11%
Activity: H$19,014
Question suspends in 32 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 5th Jul 2009 1:59pm PDT (32 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Win: 15%, 2nd or 3rd (podium): 20%, 4th-10th: 20%, Outside Top Ten (but finishes): 20%, Doesn't start the race: 15%, Doesn't complete all stages : 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 10th Sep 6:52am PDT by jake

Suspend date: Sun 5th Jul 2009 1:59pm PDT (32 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (70)

70 predictions

21 secs ago
dulldave predicted Doesn't start the race (H$100 at 23%)
1 week ago
rslnerd predicted Win (H$100 at 38%)
1 week ago
pippi1500 predicted Doesn't start the race (H$50 at 22%)
3 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Doesn't start the race (H$300 at 22%)
4 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted Doesn't start the race (H$20 at 24%)
more

Comments (1)

with or without steroids? does it count if he wins then it is taken away?
posted 1 week ago

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