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Created Wed 10th Sep 2008 5:52am PST by jake

What position will Lance Armstrong finish in the 2009 Tour de France overall standing?

Settled as 2nd or 3rd (podium)

Lance Armstrong placed third in the 2009 Tour de France.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-23/results

Background:

Background: Lance Armstrong announced his return to professional cycling and said he is going to try to win his eighth Tour de France. How will Lance finish in the race, if his return is successful and he enters with a team.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Win
21%
2nd or 3rd (podium)
15%
4th-10th
24%
Outside Top Ten (but finishes)
28%
Doesn't start the race
2%
Doesn't complete all stages
10%
Settled as 2nd or 3rd (podium) on Sun 26th Jul 10:11am PST

Suspend date: Sun 5th Jul 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 26th Jul 10:11am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 5th Jul 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Win: 15%, 2nd or 3rd (podium): 20%, 4th-10th: 20%, Outside Top Ten (but finishes): 20%, Doesn't start the race: 15%, Doesn't complete all stages : 10%

Action history:

Created Wed 10th Sep 2008 5:52am PST by jake
Suspended Sun 5th Jul 12:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 26th Jul 10:07am PST by pippi1500: Podium. Lance Armstrong placed third in the 2009 Tour de France.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-23/results
Settled as '2nd or 3rd (podium)' Sun 26th Jul 10:11am PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: Lance Armstrong placed third in the 2009 Tour de France.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-23/results
Settled as '2nd or 3rd (podium)' Sun 26th Jul 10:11am PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: Lance Armstrong placed third in the 2009 Tour de France.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stages/stage-23/results

Suspend date: Sun 5th Jul 12:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 26th Jul 10:11am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 5th Jul 12:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (462)

19 weeks ago
rdeggau predicted Outside Top Ten (but finishes) (H$100 at 27%)
19 weeks ago
cwatterson predicted 2nd or 3rd (podium) (H$100 at 14%)
19 weeks ago
pippi1500 predicted 4th-10th (H$100 at 24%)
19 weeks ago
squirrel predicted Win (H$20 at 22%)
19 weeks ago
westcastle predicted 2nd or 3rd (podium) (H$20 at 14%)

Comments (19)

  1 nadine_dr_computer
with or without steroids? does it count if he wins then it is taken away?
posted 1 year ago
  2 cookietime
Someone keeps spiking 'Win'...is Lance Armstrong's mum on this site??
posted 39 weeks ago
  3 duckie
It's me. I really like the tour. and by like i mean it makes feel funny in my pants. so i have to bet on it a lot. too much. if lance loses my hubdub days are done :-).
posted 38 weeks ago
  4 cookietime
Another spike on win? I gotta hand it to you Duckie, you're certainly determined but thats not going to stop me picking up bargains on everything else....
posted 34 weeks ago
  5 pitchedoutsideleg
See also http://www.hubdub.com/m15644/Will_Lance_Armstrong_Return_to_win_the_2009_Tour_De_France_
posted 33 weeks ago
  6 philphan1
feeling funny in your pants, huh Duckie? hmmmm
posted 32 weeks ago
  7 randburg
Lance Armstrong is a real live superhero... BUT superheros don't have a metal plate and twelve screws in their collarbone...
posted 32 weeks ago
  8 duckie
ducks dont wear pants Phil. you can type, you should know that. Lets just say, when lance wins, I will be a much richer animal, at least in H$.
posted 32 weeks ago
  9 cookietime
Thats right, dogs and mice wear pants but ducks for some reason don't. I never understood that...
posted 32 weeks ago
  10 onedave[Power User]
Very odd percentages. You get a low percentage (20%) that Armstrong races but does not win.
posted 30 weeks ago
  11 onedave[Power User]
Armstrong was cleared to compete in the Tour de France.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/04/24/armstrong.france.cleared/
posted 29 weeks ago
  12 randburg
Lance is more likely to win in this race than I am! I keep losing money on this question...
posted 29 weeks ago
  13 frogchop
I'm actually surprised the does not start market isn't higher than it is right now because of the financial troubles his team is having. If you're not on a team, you can't race. The UCI is keeping a very close eye on the situation with Astana at the moment as there are folks that aren't getting paychecks. If they pull Astana's license, he's done for.
posted 27 weeks ago
  14 onedave[Power User]
UCI plans to suspend Astana if they do not straighten out its financial crisis by May 31.
posted 27 weeks ago
  15 duckie
randburg: I had something like 85,000H$ before I put it all on this question and went to India for 6 months. now i have 16,000H$. so, yeah, I am losing some money too. Whatever, if he wins, awesome for my H$, if Contador wins, awesome for cycling. I guess I just keep polishing the brass and see whether the ship sinks.
posted 26 weeks ago
  16 kruijs[Power User]
duckie: going to india is no excuse for not playing hubdub! they have internet over there, I know!
posted 26 weeks ago
  17 duckie
yeah, but it is slow and it smells funny. I'll be home in 6 days but all my H$ is on lance, to the last H$ I have, so there isnt much of a point in me hanging around. speaking of which, why is it that we dont get money when we log in anymore?
posted 23 weeks ago
  18 duckie
oh, we do, it is $20 that is why i wasnt noticing.

TOUR DE FARCE STARTS TOMORROW!!1! yay..
posted 20 weeks ago
  19 frogchop
Despite the fact that I'll lose $5k on this question if he does finish on the podium, I am so happy he's got a serious shot at it.
posted 17 weeks ago

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