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Will Joe Biden resign his nomination for Dem VP and be replaced by another before the election?

Settled as No

Joe Biden is still on ticket. No talks of resignation. Therefore in effort to be more efficient am settling now using 99.9% rule as justification.

Background:

With the Obama campaign still trying to find its footing after the surprise nomination of Sarah Palin for the Republican VP slot the Democrat VP nominee Joe Biden stated on 9/10, in reference to Hillary Clinton, that "...she’s easily qualified to be vice president of the United States of America, and quite frankly, it might have been a better pick than me."

Could this mean something? http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/biden-hillary-a.html

The election year has so far turned into a gender war, with both parties fighting it out for the women's vote since Hillary Clinton lost the nomination. It would be unprecedented for Obama to 'rechoose' his VP pick and is extremely unlikely. While allot of focus has been put on both Biden and Palin as is usually the case the VP picks are fun but unimportant in the long run as voters decide on the Presidential candidates. In recent days Obama has again regained slim margins in polls as the glamour of the Palin pick has worn off, oddly enough Palin has boosted McCain's numbers for men and not as much for woman. So a Hillary repick would probably not help Obama but make him look weak and indecisive.

Related Market

Edited by Ryanj


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
3%
No
97%
Activity: H$112,923
Settled as No on Mon 3rd Nov 10:58am PST

Suspend date: Sat 11th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 10:58am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 11th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 10th Sep 9:23pm PDT by markov
Suspended Sat 11th Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 3rd Nov 10:38am PST by rbrog77: Since it says replaced bvy another, regardless of if he resigns today, he can't be replaced by tomorrow, can he?
Settled as 'No' Mon 3rd Nov 10:58am PST by destry[Admin]: Joe Biden is still on ticket. No talks of resignation. Therefore in effort to be more efficient am settling now using 99.9% rule as justification.

Suspend date: Sat 11th Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 10:58am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 11th Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (163)

163 predictions

5 weeks ago
whitesquirrel predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
5 weeks ago
curios predicted Yes (H$50 at 2%)
5 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted Yes (H$2 at 2%)
5 weeks ago
robsta predicted No (H$100 at 98%)
5 weeks ago
stefan predicted No (H$617 at 96%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 Erik
Be careful jenniandboys..."I hope for his sake, Joe Biden got that VP thing in writing." - Rudy Giuliani
posted 10 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
great question markov!!!!

brilliant. Maybe though, for all her trouble, to agree to be on the ticket, she would want top billing?
posted 10 weeks ago
  4 cognos[Power User]
ummm ... Joe sixpack is on "medical leave" because of his mother-in-law's illness.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/04/biden-cancels-events-as-mother-in-law-battles-illness/
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 matthelm
Why does this market suspend 3 weeks before the election?
Just curious...
posted 6 weeks ago
  6 curios
i find this strange i ask the question but had it voided only difference was i mentioned the name of the person in the blog i.e. Hillary
posted 5 weeks ago

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