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Which hurricane will strike the US next?

Settled as other/none

None of the hurricanes listed makes landfall in the US
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Background:

After hurricane Ike, which hurricane will strike the US next? By "US", I mean one of the 50 states. Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and any other territory I may have forgotten about are excluded. The storm must be hurricane strength when striking land.

I'll keep the suspend date relatively short to make it a little more interesting.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Kyle
0%
Laura
0%
Marco
0%
Nana
0%
Omar
0%
Paloma
0%
Rene
0%
Sally
0%
Teddy
0%
other/none
99%
Activity: H$90,675
Settled as other/none on Wed 22nd Oct 2:55am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 22nd Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 22nd Oct 2:55am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 22nd Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Kyle: 25%, Laura: 22%, Marco: 18%, Nana: 14%, Omar: 9%, Paloma: 5%, Rene: 3%, Sally: 2%, Teddy: 1%, other/none: 1%

Action history:

Created Thu 11th Sep 12:46pm PDT by fijis
Suspended Mon 22nd Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Thu 25th Sep 5:37am PDT by tisha[Admin]: suspend date moved forward
Suspended Wed 22nd Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 22nd Oct 1:24am PDT by curios: no hurricane please settle
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Settled as 'other/none' Wed 22nd Oct 2:55am PDT by tisha[Admin]: None of the hurricanes listed makes landfall in the US
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Suspend date: Wed 22nd Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 22nd Oct 2:55am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 22nd Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (213)

213 predictions

4 weeks ago
curios predicted other/none (H$10,000 at 97%)
4 weeks ago
ejayz predicted other/none (H$100 at 93%)
4 weeks ago
jsevigny predicted other/none (H$500 at 94%)
4 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted Teddy (H$5 at 1%)
4 weeks ago
curios predicted other/none (H$5,000 at 94%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 mork[Power User]
http://www.stormpulse.com/
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 bigken1
I am a little disappointed when i see the betting results (so far), as the distribution does not appear to me to be consistent with independent events for hurricanes striking the US. If each event has a probability of p (although the prob. will go down in time, as the season ends), then then the first has prob, p. I would think the second one would have a smaller prob, ~(1-p)p, as if the first one succeeded the second could not, etc. etc... but the data so far have the 2nd larger than the first... Oh well....Of course, i do not know what p is, anyway, but there likely is a good source for that...
posted 9 weeks ago
  3 bigken1
Anyone know what that is, and I will calculate dist...
posted 9 weeks ago
Know anyone that works in Coral Gables at the NHC?
posted 9 weeks ago
  5 sqlman
FWIW, the NHC hasn't been in Coral Gables for years; it was moved to the FIU campus in Miami in 1995 after Andrew did a number on the old building... ;)
posted 8 weeks ago

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